[XMR] Monero Speculation

[medusa13]

kind of a hefty sell of, but price stays unaffected for now  seems healty
1w stoch rsi and 3d macd look very promising to me, lets see where this goes..

good to see some volume

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[TrueCryptonaire]

Risto's and other's accumulator's aspirations are getting filled here at least.

Coins are literally falling on the laps of a buyer. Just having a few buy orders a little below the spot and waite a few hours so that they will get dumped into. Rinse and repeat.

[kazuki49]

pump and dumps come and go but Monero is always back at the top in volume.

We are in that period of time where those who did not acquired cheap Monero will look back with great sorrow, I predict it can last one more year.

The world is a big place and Monero still very small.

[Hueristic]

pump and dumps come and go but Monero is always back at the top in volume.

We are in that period of time where those who did not acquired cheap Monero will look back with great sorrow, I predict it can last one more year.

The world is a big place and Monero still very small.

I concur, I wish I had the funds freed up right now to get back in. If I'm lucky It'll seasaw here for awhile.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I know this is a little bit off topic but do you guys think bitcoin will drop?
In bitsamp the volumes have decreased which has indicated a dump on the way. What are your opinions?

Perhaps time to deposit some fiat to stamp waiting for at least 10 % lower prices - or even to 220 usd...?

[dnaleor]

I've bought today so far around 7500 XMR and I am still nibbling. 

Wow. That's a lot of Monero you got there. I have the feeling you might become rich when Monero's price goes up. As for me, I'm growing my stack of Monero and as of now I own 25 XMR. 

I have a feeling you might become rich when Monero's price goes up.

You're assuming the Monero-overtakes-Bitcoin scenario

Not really. 25 BTC might be worth even more.

and I still think would be very damaging to the crypto-economy as a whole

As you know I'm less convinced of that.

As a special case of how that might not happen, I don't rule out the possibility of two winners in crypto, one being the (more) transparent coin (assume hypothetically this is Bitcoin) and one being the (more) private coin (less clear at this point what that might be but Monero is certainly a plausible candidate). It isn't clear to me that the transparent coin would necessarily be bigger, and it also isn't clear that the private coin turning out to be bigger would have the same effect as some other coin that did the same thing as Bitcoin overtaking Bitcoin.

http://startupmanagement.org/2015/06/06/the-next-10-years-42-macro-predictions-in-cryptography-blockchains-and-consensus-protocols/

"There will be 10 widely and commonly used, global virtual currencies that will be considered mainstream, and their total market value will exceed $5 Trillion dollars, and represent 5% of the world’s $100 Trillion economy in 2025 (Bitcoin will still be the largest one of them)."

I'm not sure that I agree with William Mougayar's analysis but it's certainly a possibility that multiple cryptocurrencies will end up competing for a share of the marketplace. For example, countries could decide to favor one cryptocurrency over another - such as accepting XMR and not BTC for payment of taxes, giving a need to have multiple cryptocurrencies, if only for one purpose.

Yeah, I remember that article. It was solid. I agree that it will be an ecosystem of coins, but a fairly small number (<10 ?) that will have significant cap.

Anyways, that article got a fair amount of play in tech/startup circles. But few people did the math on what he was predicting for BTC price. Let's take the most conservative view on the assumptions in that statement and say that BTC is only *barely* the biggest coin; that'd be ~10% of the $5T, so $500B market-cap. At full 21,000,000 coins in circ, that's $23809/btc.

Mougayar is a well-respected guy, but if I recall, few people spoke much of what amounted to an investment prediction. I guess a lot of people consider it gouache to speak much of price.

I personally think 10 coins is way to much.
Tell me, which of the current coins has features that can't eventually be implemented in Bitcoin (and possible monero) ?

It all depends on how the space will evolve, I agree, but the "worst case scenario" for altcoins (the scenario I like best) is:
Only BTC and XMR survive, all other coins are worth almost next to nothing. Those coins are hobby projects, ponzi schemes or jokes

The exchange rate between BTC and XMR will be a reflection of how harsh government regulation is. Also it is very likely that there will be a huge difference between an "offcial" (clearnet) exchange rate (people subjected to AML/KYC)  and a "black" (darknet/cash*) exchange rate (no reporting)
*asuming cash still exists in 10 years time

In this scenario, there will be some "pretend cryptocurrencies" like ripple or other centralized schemes, but these coins will be plagued by price manipulation and not really used in everyday commerce. Maybe they will be used by governments or by people who "want" to pay their taxes in crypto.

Another scenario would be the one where there is a little more diversity: next to the "real coins" (XMR and BTC), some others are established platforms for specific niches:
*share platform (NXT? XCP? )
*storage platform (SAFE? STORJ?)
*DDNS (NMC?)
or one platform replacing all the above (ethereum?)

I'm not a technical expert, but I really think most functions that are now implemented in altcoins will eventually be available on BTC (or XMR?)
It all depends on the network effect of those niches. Will they grow fast enough?

[papa_lazzarou]

Monero is getting out there. 

https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/624516977105707008

Bitsquare ‏@bitsquare_ -

Wondering what @NickSzabo4 thinks about @monerocurrency. For me beside @ethereumproject and @sidechains the most exciting development.

[Calabi–Yau Manifold]

Monero is getting out there.  

https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/624516977105707008

Bitsquare ‏@bitsquare_ -

Wondering what @NickSzabo4 thinks about @monerocurrency. For me beside @ethereumproject and @sidechains the most exciting development.

Sorry but it looks like insistent attempt to get some more hype from famous person after Peter Todd's praise.

[pandher]

Sorry but it looks like insistent attempt to get some more hype from famous person after Peter Todd's praise.

Pathetic thinking i must say. You are the kind of people holding back technology.

[TrueCryptonaire]

In general hype is a good  thing for a coin as it helps in adaption significiantly.

[DaveyJones]

Monero is getting out there.  

https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/624516977105707008

Bitsquare ‏@bitsquare_ -

Wondering what @NickSzabo4 thinks about @monerocurrency. For me beside @ethereumproject and @sidechains the most exciting development.

Sorry but it looks like insistent attempt to get some more hype from famous person after Peter Todd's praise.

Why not peer review is what counts in a peer2peer network and if he thinks there a flaws he also might be able to tell them.

[medusa13]

btc goes up and we take a hit? what do we need to break this pattern (despite a lot of money ofc) ?
XMR is the real anti coin, if they go down we go up and the opposite

[jehst]

btc goes up and we take a hit? what do we need to break this pattern (despite a lot of money ofc) ?
XMR is the real anti coin, if they go down we go up and the opposite

Sadly and bizarrely, LTC is actually in control right now. People are buying BTC to get involved in the LTC shenanigans.

[TrueCryptonaire]

btc goes up and we take a hit? what do we need to break this pattern (despite a lot of money ofc) ?
XMR is the real anti coin, if they go down we go up and the opposite

Might be an early sign of XMR gaining independence from BTC. A prodigal son.

[SmoothCurves]

I've bought today so far around 7500 XMR and I am still nibbling. 

Wow. That's a lot of Monero you got there. I have the feeling you might become rich when Monero's price goes up. As for me, I'm growing my stack of Monero and as of now I own 25 XMR. 

I have a feeling you might become rich when Monero's price goes up.

You're assuming the Monero-overtakes-Bitcoin scenario

Not really. 25 BTC might be worth even more.

and I still think would be very damaging to the crypto-economy as a whole

As you know I'm less convinced of that.

As a special case of how that might not happen, I don't rule out the possibility of two winners in crypto, one being the (more) transparent coin (assume hypothetically this is Bitcoin) and one being the (more) private coin (less clear at this point what that might be but Monero is certainly a plausible candidate). It isn't clear to me that the transparent coin would necessarily be bigger, and it also isn't clear that the private coin turning out to be bigger would have the same effect as some other coin that did the same thing as Bitcoin overtaking Bitcoin.

http://startupmanagement.org/2015/06/06/the-next-10-years-42-macro-predictions-in-cryptography-blockchains-and-consensus-protocols/

"There will be 10 widely and commonly used, global virtual currencies that will be considered mainstream, and their total market value will exceed $5 Trillion dollars, and represent 5% of the world’s $100 Trillion economy in 2025 (Bitcoin will still be the largest one of them)."

I'm not sure that I agree with William Mougayar's analysis but it's certainly a possibility that multiple cryptocurrencies will end up competing for a share of the marketplace. For example, countries could decide to favor one cryptocurrency over another - such as accepting XMR and not BTC for payment of taxes, giving a need to have multiple cryptocurrencies, if only for one purpose.

Yeah, I remember that article. It was solid. I agree that it will be an ecosystem of coins, but a fairly small number (<10 ?) that will have significant cap.

Anyways, that article got a fair amount of play in tech/startup circles. But few people did the math on what he was predicting for BTC price. Let's take the most conservative view on the assumptions in that statement and say that BTC is only *barely* the biggest coin; that'd be ~10% of the $5T, so $500B market-cap. At full 21,000,000 coins in circ, that's $23809/btc.

Mougayar is a well-respected guy, but if I recall, few people spoke much of what amounted to an investment prediction. I guess a lot of people consider it gouache to speak much of price.

I personally think 10 coins is way to much.
Tell me, which of the current coins has features that can't eventually be implemented in Bitcoin (and possible monero) ?

It all depends on how the space will evolve, I agree, but the "worst case scenario" for altcoins (the scenario I like best) is:
Only BTC and XMR survive, all other coins are worth almost next to nothing. Those coins are hobby projects, ponzi schemes or jokes

The exchange rate between BTC and XMR will be a reflection of how harsh government regulation is. Also it is very likely that there will be a huge difference between an "offcial" (clearnet) exchange rate (people subjected to AML/KYC)  and a "black" (darknet/cash*) exchange rate (no reporting)
*asuming cash still exists in 10 years time

In this scenario, there will be some "pretend cryptocurrencies" like ripple or other centralized schemes, but these coins will be plagued by price manipulation and not really used in everyday commerce. Maybe they will be used by governments or by people who "want" to pay their taxes in crypto.

Another scenario would be the one where there is a little more diversity: next to the "real coins" (XMR and BTC), some others are established platforms for specific niches:
*share platform (NXT? XCP? )
*storage platform (SAFE? STORJ?)
*DDNS (NMC?)
or one platform replacing all the above (ethereum?)

I'm not a technical expert, but I really think most functions that are now implemented in altcoins will eventually be available on BTC (or XMR?)
It all depends on the network effect of those niches. Will they grow fast enough?

Yep that sounds about right.

BTC, XMR and MaidSAFE are going to be huge. With some scraps left over for Etherium, NXT, Ripple

[iCEBREAKER]

btc goes up and we take a hit? what do we need to break this pattern (despite a lot of money ofc) ?
XMR is the real anti coin, if they go down we go up and the opposite

Might be an early sign of XMR gaining independence from BTC. A prodigal son.

XMR tends to fall on low volume days.  Emission is high enough that this acts as an invaluable distribution mechanism by filling more potential mustangs' reasonable bid orders.

Be right and sit tight.   

[DaveyJones]

btc goes up and we take a hit? what do we need to break this pattern (despite a lot of money ofc) ?
XMR is the real anti coin, if they go down we go up and the opposite

Might be an early sign of XMR gaining independence from BTC. A prodigal son.

XMR tends to fall on low volume days.  Emission is high enough that this acts as an invaluable distribution mechanism by filling more potential mustangs' reasonable bid orders.

Be right and sit tight.   

id rather say those dumps are from miners and the daytraders hoping on another coin of the day. Some of these people might do that to increase their XMR holdings afterwards.

[Calabi–Yau Manifold]

Sorry but it looks like insistent attempt to get some more hype from famous person after Peter Todd's praise.

Pathetic thinking i must say. You are the kind of people holding back technology.

Pathetic? This tweet is pathetic. Face facts. Bitsquare is trying to get hype... just to repeat Todds hype tweet... so silly

[jehst]

Some of the hype tweets have been very unprofessional considering the authors.

Barry Silbert
Tony Gallippi
The whole Coinbase team with their "Lunar announcement" and countdown.

Today, I saw that Coinbase's Armstrong said something about bitcoin replacing the dollar as the reserve currency in 10 years.

These people should really learn to exercise some restraint.

Sure we can talk about the scenarios where XMR and BTC are worth millions per coin and they take over the world, but we have to talk about the likelihood of failure as well.

[thefunkybits]

There seems to be some resistance from BTC rising today...

I suspect once these hedgers/sellers are exhausted, XMR could explode to the upside (especially if Bitcoin is in obvious uptrend)