[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Monero_Magician]

I suppose you're right. I value privacy and security above all else. My point can basically be condensed by saying that if Monero is to become a top cryptocurrency, regardless of whether or not it surpasses Bitcoin, it will have to eventually diverge from Bitcoin's price chart and that at some point the high's and low's of bitcoin can no longer be used as a future indicator for Monero.

[G2M]

Not necessarily, day to day fluctuations sure a bit of divergence is expected, but on the month/year scale I'd expect a movement toward understanding that 'alts and btc go up and down' rather than 'btc went up or down so the alts followed'.

They both still cover the same market. Gold and silver have had very similar long term trends for the past 30 years. Not to say that one or the other is equal to one or the other, just that asset market prices are better understood as a wide movement toward a general market sentiment, rather than the most expensive asset moving up or down.

Now diverge in the sense of rapid value growth, maybe that's what you're talking about? That's just short term though.

Highs and lows of btc will likely always have some correlation to highs and lows of monero though, especially while its mainly a btc denominated market, rather than a predominantly USD denominated one. But again, being USD denominated would likely only produce a short term diverging while the price settles.

[jehst]

Not necessarily, day to day fluctuations sure a bit of divergence is expected, but on the month/year scale I'd expect a movement toward understanding that 'alts and btc go up and down' rather than 'btc went up or down so the alts followed'.

They both still cover the same market. Gold and silver have had very similar long term trends for the past 30 years. Not to say that one or the other is equal to one or the other, just that asset market prices are better understood as a wide movement toward a general market sentiment, rather than the most expensive asset moving up or down.

Now diverge in the sense of rapid value growth, maybe that's what you're talking about? That's just short term though.

Highs and lows of btc will likely always have some correlation to highs and lows of monero though, especially while its mainly a btc denominated market, rather than a predominantly USD denominated one. But again, being USD denominated would likely only produce a short term diverging while the price settles.

It wasn't just gold and silver that moved together. Copper, Corn, Oil, etc. all spiked at the same time during the 2008 financial crisis.  
Fixed-supply assets tend to move together on a macro scale.

Similarly, altcoins as a group have moved together. Most altcoins in April 2013 (e.g. LTC, NMC, PPC, etc.) rose together against bitcoin. They fell together against bitcoin in the Summer of 2013. They rose against bitcoin again in November 2013. You can see a similar pattern in gold and silver. Silver, with a smaller market cap than gold, has moved up more than gold during precious metals mega-rallies such as the one in 2008. Then it falls against gold during the precious metal bear markets.

XMR, being the smallest legitimate altcoin with any real liquidity, may end up moving more than any of the coins above it in market cap.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Bad news.

If you thought that bitcointalk trolls were isolated in this forum, think again. They have recently started in invade http://www.reddit.com/r/monero

at least https://forum.getmonero.org/ seems safe for now and has been more active recently.

Ignore the trolls! Fighting with them only leads to more trolling

[kazuki49]

Bad news.

If you thought that bitcointalk trolls were isolated in this forum, think again. They have recently started in invade http://www.reddit.com/r/monero

at least https://forum.getmonero.org/ seems safe for now and has been more active recently.

Ignore the trolls! Fighting with them only leads to more trolling

Unfortunately, if you think we are going to be free of trolls, it hasn't even begun yet, just look at a comment session about Bitcoin on a mainstream article... but the point of moving the conversation to /r/monero and the forums is so the mods can ban the trolls so people can actually have a conversation, think of it like our home, bitcointalk is a nobody's land.

[AnonCoinTwitter]

You may have noticed that BTC38 does trade ANC/BTC and ANC/CNY, sometimes with very good volume.

I have asked them to add XMR. Please follow my Twitter account and retweet as desired

https://twitter.com/AnoncoinTeam/status/625585653187768320

[jehst]

Bad news.

If you thought that bitcointalk trolls were isolated in this forum, think again. They have recently started in invade http://www.reddit.com/r/monero

at least https://forum.getmonero.org/ seems safe for now and has been more active recently.

Ignore the trolls! Fighting with them only leads to more trolling

Unfortunately, if you think we are going to be free of trolls, it hasn't even begun yet, just look at a comment session about Bitcoin on a mainstream article... but the point of moving the conversation to /r/monero and the forums is so the mods can ban the trolls so people can actually have a conversation, think of it like our home, bitcointalk is a nobody's land.

Is it just me, or do we have a discussion about trolls every week?

[jwinterm]

Bad news.

If you thought that bitcointalk trolls were isolated in this forum, think again. They have recently started in invade http://www.reddit.com/r/monero

at least https://forum.getmonero.org/ seems safe for now and has been more active recently.

Ignore the trolls! Fighting with them only leads to more trolling

Unfortunately, if you think we are going to be free of trolls, it hasn't even begun yet, just look at a comment session about Bitcoin on a mainstream article... but the point of moving the conversation to /r/monero and the forums is so the mods can ban the trolls so people can actually have a conversation, think of it like our home, bitcointalk is a nobody's land.

Is it just me, or do we have a discussion about trolls every week?

I think I've seen enough trolling and discussion thereof that I'm ready to defend my doctorate in trollology 

[generalizethis]

Bad news.

If you thought that bitcointalk trolls were isolated in this forum, think again. They have recently started in invade http://www.reddit.com/r/monero

at least https://forum.getmonero.org/ seems safe for now and has been more active recently.

Ignore the trolls! Fighting with them only leads to more trolling

Unfortunately, if you think we are going to be free of trolls, it hasn't even begun yet, just look at a comment session about Bitcoin on a mainstream article... but the point of moving the conversation to /r/monero and the forums is so the mods can ban the trolls so people can actually have a conversation, think of it like our home, bitcointalk is a nobody's land.

Is it just me, or do we have a discussion about trolls every week?

I think I've seen enough trolling and discussion thereof that I'm ready to defend my doctorate in trollology 

This is nothing; the dollar, ruble and yen have whole countries of trolls prepared to go to war for them. And oil trolls! Forget about it--those MFrs rule the world.

[ExtremeFacials.com]

maybe we should mail charlie shrem something to read about monero.
IIRC, he is in jail now for selling BTC to a dark market guy, so plenty of time for him to read

(this is a serious idea)

Shrem isn't the guy for XMR, go for serious business minded tech guys like Wences Casares or the Winklevii.

Wences Casares would like monero

[MilkyLep]

You may have noticed that BTC38 does trade ANC/BTC and ANC/CNY, sometimes with very good volume.

I have asked them to add XMR. Please follow my Twitter account and retweet as desired

https://twitter.com/AnoncoinTeam/status/625585653187768320

I e-mailed last week asking if they had any plans to list new coin markets they replied nothing was planned but they would "keep eyes on XMR."

Not the most positive response imo however I also mentioned the community driven project funding and thriving development team as well as the possibility to take some of Polo's XMR volume. Perhaps I was too forward or came across ad-driven.

[kenji]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the pirce of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

[americanpegasus]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the pirce of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

 
  
Whoa, whoa whoa.  Let's try to stay on topic here!  Ok?    
  
But since you did bring it up, I'll bite.  
  
I think that a reasonable estimate for a healthy Monero price in 2016 will be $3.00 to $5.00.  However, for Monero to survive it has to grow exponentially and humans are really bad at estimating exponential curves, especially when they are inside of one.  Therefore, I would guess that Monero's high in 2016 would probably shock the shit out of us if we heard it now.  What about a 2016 high of $47?  
  
And then it would probably correct, of course.  
  
And late 2017?  Well, again, if Monero is to succeed it must be much further along both development wise and speculation wise by then... so if we are truly going to experience exponential growth on the scale that we need, I would guess a late 2017 price of $590.  
  
Crazy, I know.  As crazy as predicting $1,000 bitcoins in 2011. 
 
  Either that or ol' Pegasus will be on here saying, "Look guys, Monero is looking real cheap at only 4 cents each!"

[dnaleor]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the pirce of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

I think we can have a stable price of 2 USD/XMR at the end of the year, maybe we had a spike towards 5-10 USD in between, hard to tell.
Next year XMR will enter top5 and probably top3 on coinmarketcap. I'm guassing a "stable" exchange rate around 10-20 USD
In 2017 we should become the strongest "altcoin" with an exchange rate of at least 50 USD, probably more (maybe 200-500 USD)
Why? If LTC can hit 50 USD with a supply 4*BTC, then XMR should be able to hit at least 4*50 USD with a supply comparable to BTC.

After 2017? I don't know, will XMR overtake BTC in the end? No clue.

[smooth]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the pirce of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

I think we can have a stable price of 2 USD/XMR at the end of the year, maybe we had a spike towards 5-10 USD in between, hard to tell.
Next year XMR will enter top5 and probably top3 on coinmarketcap. I'm guassing a "stable" exchange rate around 10-20 USD
In 2017 we should become the strongest "altcoin" with an exchange rate of at least 50 USD, probably more (maybe 200-500 USD)
Why? If LTC can hit 50 USD with a supply 4*BTC, then XMR should be able to hit at least 4*50 USD with a supply comparable to BTC.

After 2017? I don't know, will XMR overtake BTC in the end? No clue.

BTC better be a lot higher than 200-500 by 2017 or it is going to be a long, cold, hard winter in crypto land. If it is, you can pretty much forget about these bull run scenarios for XMR. If BTC does perform, then there is plenty of running room for XMR without wondering about overtaking.

[Hueristic]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the price of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

That completely depends on the Devs and the barrier to new programmers being addressed. If the code gets documented to a point where coders that are not mathematicians can contribute then the sky is the limit. If not then the worth of the coin will be wholly dependent on the few who have torturously gotten up to speed and those are few and have the burden of supporting themselfs at the same time so I would expect development to continue at this same pace. IOW official GUI with Multisig in 5 years.

[SmoothCurves]

Hi everyone,

lets predict the pirce of monero for 2016 and 2017

what are your thoughts about the price in one year, will it hit the $10?

 
  
Whoa, whoa whoa.  Let's try to stay on topic here!  Ok?    
  
But since you did bring it up, I'll bite.  
  
I think that a reasonable estimate for a healthy Monero price in 2016 will be $3.00 to $5.00.  However, for Monero to survive it has to grow exponentially and humans are really bad at estimating exponential curves, especially when they are inside of one.  Therefore, I would guess that Monero's high in 2016 would probably shock the shit out of us if we heard it now.  What about a 2016 high of $47?  
  
And then it would probably correct, of course.  
  
And late 2017?  Well, again, if Monero is to succeed it must be much further along both development wise and speculation wise by then... so if we are truly going to experience exponential growth on the scale that we need, I would guess a late 2017 price of $590.  
  
Crazy, I know.  As crazy as predicting $1,000 bitcoins in 2011.  
  
  Either that or ol' Pegasus will be on here saying, "Look guys, Monero is looking real cheap at only 4 cents each!"

Yeah, you hit the head on the nail. Just take a look at the old bitcoin predictions. People underestimated how fast the price could grow. I'll go ahead and make my, most likely to be way-off predictions, based on the best case scenarios.

2016 XMR price at $68.

and

2017 at $190

and

2018 at $1300

[iCEBREAKER]

After 2017? I don't know, will XMR overtake BTC in the end? No clue.

BTC better be a lot higher than 200-500 by 2017 or it is going to be a long, cold, hard winter in crypto land. If it is, you can pretty much forget about these bull run scenarios for XMR. If BTC does perform, then there is plenty of running room for XMR without wondering about overtaking.

Smooth is right.  BTC is about to hit the afterburners, in the form of sidechains and Lightning.  If that fails to achieve lunar orbit, the entire crypto sector sink along with its flagship.

[rdnkjdi]

BTC is about to hit the afterburners, in the form of sidechains and Lightning.

What IS going on with sidechains?  You have a link or something?  Seems like it's been in discussion for forever ...

Isn't it going to require bitcoin to change some code?  Is it even possible to get consensus to do that at this point?

[kazuki49]

After 2017? I don't know, will XMR overtake BTC in the end? No clue.

BTC better be a lot higher than 200-500 by 2017 or it is going to be a long, cold, hard winter in crypto land. If it is, you can pretty much forget about these bull run scenarios for XMR. If BTC does perform, then there is plenty of running room for XMR without wondering about overtaking.

Smooth is right.  BTC is about to hit the afterburners, in the form of sidechains and Lightning.  If that fails to achieve lunar orbit, the entire crypto sector sink along with its flagship.

No, it is Bitcoin that is holding crypto back, it can't scale and the lack of inherent privacy turn people off.