You people obviously have no idea how asset valuation works. If people believed the price would be 300 in a few days, it would be 300 now. The current price is the best reflection of its future value.
+1 |
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KEEP TROLLING SMOOTHIE EVERYONE SHOULD IGNORE THE HUGE BEAR PENNANT FORMING RIGHT NOW
WE'RE ALL GONNA BE RICH BITCOINZ FOREVER KEKEKE
Zoom out to the daily chart and watch as we form a bullish pennant. zoom in on the unprecedented 60% knife that just happened. $150 price swings are not to be ignored. |
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I'm sorry but I don't se ANY indications of a "bubble" popping here.  -===- can you say 'overbought' ? |
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How does one predict the trend of some millionaire in China picking up a newspaper and reading about Bitcoin for the first time and having it "click"?
Same thing in any other part of the world.
There is nothing to predict when someone with a lot of money may start moving money today or wait until returning from a business trip next week.
you are mistaken. TA works precisely because of actions like these. hint: smart money reflects underlying trends, not opposes. |
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KEEP TROLLING SMOOTHIE EVERYONE SHOULD IGNORE THE HUGE BEAR PENNANT FORMING RIGHT NOW
WE'RE ALL GONNA BE RICH BITCOINZ FOREVER KEKEKE
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When I first made this post, I had not even yet dreamed of $150 price swings in the bitcoin economy. My only hope is that the discussion helped others dream of just that this past week, and protect their money with stop orders and smart speculation. This is what happens when deflation gets out of hand. I hope that this correction helps return us to the new normal and we see healthy sustainable growth from here on out.
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if all you see is a blip then your eyes are not sharp enough and someone with sharper will soon pick your pocket.
hint: there is more to life bitcoin than price data on a logscale chart
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it's all there -- the steadily decreasing volume throughout the pennant and just now, the spike in volume and price associated with the 'pattern confirmation'. this small spike is actually a bulltrap/sell signal for the smart money. get ready. target: sub $150 on the scale of ten hours
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OP, you should've done it before recent 200% price increases.
try 800% |
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Vote with your feet.
+21,000,000 |
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This thread's title makes no sense at all.
verdict: bubble topDo you have enough conviction this time to take some bets on it? give me some proper terms and i'll consider it. what's your bet? |
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Don't panic sell. We're entering the most bullish part of the day.
quoted for delusion |
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This thread's title makes no sense at all.
verdict: bubble topalso, the point of the title of the thread was that we've seen this all before and we knew this was where we were heading. also, i was fuckn blazed when i posted it, so that may also have been a part of it  |
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Lets talk about empiricism
...
How many TA do you find among the Forbes richest people?
-facepalm- this is not empiricism. -===- let's not get offtrack here, because i gave a very straightforward hypothesis in the OP which you did not even touch, but one point -- 'proneness to apophenia' doesn't correlate with invalidity. it just makes the analysis easier to screw up (read: bias). that's all i was trying to say. also, it's not surprising that well-known methods of technical analysis do not work. this is actually a good point. this is probably due to the fact that markets are anti-inductive. the fact that markets are anti-inductive also works against the so-called "Lemming Effect" that many claim is responsible for any apparent success. |
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you guys were really lucky to sell on time, those that did. but you couldve easily been watching bitcoin climb to 60 instead. it's not worth the risk. win this one, lose next time, there's no method to it.
Of course it is method to it, it is called technical analysis. LOL. I think this is the only correct response. I mean, how many charts and anaysis showing that now was the time to sell did we endure from 16-49? Every day was time to sell!! The fact that one of the TA guys made a good call is not surprising to me in the least, nor do I lend anymore credit to TA.  if i had any left, i would have sold this morning. note: this chart from an hour or so before the crash. |
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When will you TA's guys understand that TA is just self-fulfilled prophecy?
TA is just a bunch of guys relying on apophenia and techniques built with the presumption that past performance does predict future results, which it doesn't.
The only investing is value investing, period.
The rest, including TA, is just gambling.
there have been many, many discussions about this. if you have this belief, and you have good evidence to back it up, feel free to start your own thread. don't spam someone's TA thread... It is not a belief, it is a fact. And this thread proves it. 1. there can be people who are bad at technical analysis, and yet it is still valid. 2. you can't prove a negative; in order to prove that technical analysis is not valid, you must disprove the existence of time-dependent autocorrelations in price data. 3. thanks for providing good contextual opening for my new thread  4. any further discussion on this point should occur in my thread or in a thread of your own, so as not to hijack lucif's any longer. |
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When will you TA's guys understand that TA is just self-fulfilled prophecy?
TA is just a bunch of guys relying on apophenia and techniques built with the presumption that past performance does predict future results, which it doesn't.
The only investing is value investing, period.
The rest, including TA, is just gambling.
there have been many, many discussions about this. if you have this belief, and you have good evidence to back it up, feel free to start your own thread. don't spam someone's TA thread... It is not a belief, it is a fact. And this thread proves it. let's set some ground rules: -try not to repeat points.
-TA is a hypothesis that needs to be discredited properly (rigorously), i.e. not in the manner that nanopene employed.
-'disproving' TA involves proving a negative, which is not possible. avoid the use of that word altogether and stick to the idea of evidence.
let me also open with a well-defined hypothesis: " Since there exist time-dependent autocorrelations in price data, past performance sometimes correlates with future results." evidence against TA would be evidence that time-dependent autocorrelations do not exist in price data. for example, a random walk does not exhibit any autocorrelations. some examples of things that do not count as evidence against technical analysis: -the relationship between technical analysis and herd behavior
-individual examples of poor analysis (stop picking on lucif )
-the fact that certain kinds of analysis (e.g. elliot waves) are prone to apophenia.
another note: if you don't understand the central premise here -- autocorrelation in stochastic functions, read up some more before replying for everyone's sake. -===- and with that i'll leave you with something cool: daily all-time price data compared to the DETRENDED PRICE OSCILLATOR, just an hour or so before the crash. do you see what i see? |
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just wait. called it. I told you guys it would crash at one point  LMAO! Losing 6 hours of gains is pretty pathetic for a crash. try 6 days |
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When will you TA's guys understand that TA is just self-fulfilled prophecy?
TA is just a bunch of guys relying on apophenia and techniques built with the presumption that past performance does predict future results, which it doesn't.
The only investing is value investing, period.
The rest, including TA, is just gambling.
there have been many, many discussions about this. if you have this belief, and you have good evidence to back it up, feel free to start your own thread. don't spam someone's TA thread... |
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just wait. |
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