now this is an actual point of contention, not FUD, thank you.

my thinking about this goes as follows:

TA demonstrates trends, supports and resistances, and other properties of the price function that help determine which 'moves' are profitable. if someone wanted to dump their coins, they could have done so at the $120 resistance, when we were threatening to crash right through. why didn't they? probably because they think they can get better than $120 per coin -- that is, they valuate BTC as "oversold". this is exactly why i'm anticipating a leg up. the sellers have run out of coin, and this fact is observable in the data. many are on the sidelines, but the selling pressure has abated.

--arepo

thanks for the feedback

-===-

x-post from "Arepo's easy TA":

good observation!

there is one very important difference. bearish wedges exhibit higher lows and higher highs, resulting in a general upward slope.

this triangle has a level top resistance, and we're consolidating bullishly so far. some evidence for this in this post.

also, this is an old thread that got necromanced, i'd like to keep all current analysis in a single thread, namely "arepo's detailed... ". i'm going to quote you there, this is good analysis.

--arepo

someone's got to sell at the bottom... pigs gonna pig

and gtfo of my thread with this FUD, i'm seriously tired of it. i haven't even made any bullish calls here....

that being said, discussion and presentation of analysis ITT,

thank you

--arepo

p.s. you might also get the pig award for posting this moments before we resume the uptrend -- by my measurements, within the next 2 hours (if we break out now), or in the next 24 hours (if we consolidate downwards one more time from this test of the $140 resistance ).

in fact, there's a way to understand this more intuitively. 'reversal candles' are periods of time in which the prevailing pressure (buying or selling) changes direction. since there is a struggle, or 'candle battle' between bulls and bears, the body tends to form very small, as the open and close are pulled close to each other by alternately competing forces, while the range of the shadow, or wicks, of the candles is pulled outward by strong waves in each direction.

no problem at all.

yesterday, i was shorting on bitfinex during the panic sell. i saw the "bounce" off of the "ceiling" of $150 (which, from previous price data, was an obvious support/resistance). this is a bearish sign.

i opened a short, and then hunted for high-volume 'dojis'. a doji is a short candle with a small body, and a symmetrical range of high and low. when these candles pattern with a spike in volume, it is a very reliable 'reversal' indicator. this is where i closed.

i used this method twice and caught two consecutive tops and bottoms this way. is that any clearer?

--arepo

edit: the second reversal candle looks more like an inverse 'shooting star', but the small body, large volume, and large range proportional to the body are all characteristics of a reversal candle.

up. see my other posts.

-===-

this is a pretty big moment for this baby bull... if we can break out of this range it'd be the first real evidence of a resumption of the uptrend -- right now we're still stuck in a bearish consolidation pennant.

edit:

further evidence for criticality: if we don't make major gains today we'll have a high-volume doji on the 3-day scale.

-===-

also, here's a very simple ceiling-bounce/'doji'+volume hunting exercise i was doing yesterday while daytrading. very straightforward and effective method:

-===-



-===-

--arepo

more evidence of the rigor of some methods of TA can be found in this thread, where the OP and i came to the same conclusion based upon wildly different techniques. that's called science.

--arepo

try "dampened oscillator" -- that's the model for a triangle consolidation pattern, and those words aren't 'lingo', they're math.


because this thread was not intended to be predictive. plain and simple. this was an outline of a pattern that had already formed in completion -- how difficult is it to understand this? don't necromance my goddamn threads if you're not even going to read them critically, and find my many others if you want to see predictive TA.


if you're feeling up to it, check out this post where TraderTimm explains the mathematical evidence for why methods of TA work.


this is garbage -- really. if there are no 'VERIFIABLE METHODS WHICH YIELD POSITIVE RESULTS AT A RATE BETTER THAN CHANCE" than how can anyone be a 'skilled' trader? what does that even mean? what has ruski learned? if the anti-TA crowd is right, and the price is a random walk, then no method whatsoever can, over long periods of time, yield returns greater than chance.

so go home and buy a lottery ticket. and for the last time, if you have something to say like "TA is bunk" or "this thread is garbage", keep in mind that you're doing exactly what you claim i am -- making groundless assertions. also for the last time, if you want to have a serious discussion about this, start your own damn threads, don't spam mine with single-line, naysaying tactics. C'mon guys...

--arepo

show me. 3 points makes a robust trendline...

no marketing at all, i've been posting analysis on the forums for the last 2 years and only published a price report because many expressed their interest for such a thing. the only reason i charged is because i generally do not have the time to work on a detailed, publishable report, as i mostly just trade on my notes.

this all started just because i opened 'too many new threads' for your taste, but i was daytrading for some 20 hours yesterday and didn't have much else to do than commune with whoever was online. my threads were not FUD, or spam, or excessive, but varied in topic and relatively unique.

please stop passing judgments...

--arepo

i don't think it's quite fair to call that a 'sucker's rally' -- it wanted to happen, the market was oversold when we started out.

as for selling as the theme -- i rather have the feeling that after yesterdays volume, there aren't many more coins left to sell 

--arepo

...

'consolidating'

learn2trade

--arepo

captain obvious?


RSI looks bullish here. short-term oversold, like i've been saying. also about to midline crossover upside.

MACD, also, looks like a short-term market bottom.

also, the post above me! on a larger scale, this is just a correction to a very large deviation from an inevitable trend... deflation is setting in boys, it's like the bitcoin balloon is filled with helium -- only large, sustained pressure can push it down! sideways is bullish for bitcoin

--arepo

the funny thing is, once everyone starts expecting a crash, and rubbing their hands greedily together as they place massive bids at $50, we can be almost sure the market won't get there. all these people are doing are bulking up supports, changing the tides on the order book, and solidifying the bottom.

markets are self-organizing -- don't worry about that. the strong hands stay around, so there will be more and more of them as time goes on. i don't think we'll EVER see panic like post-June again.

--arepo

we'll, we're not going down, presently, anymore. we're consolidating. so don't you dare say this again without some evidence or support, you're a wart on the nose of this forum.

here, here.

where is our system of decentralized exchanges? or an easy, noncontroversial solution to blockchain bloat?, etc