Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[brocktice]

S3052, I think people will be paying a whole lot more attention to what you're saying from now on  

I have and continue to pay attention, but lately it's just been so crazy and volatile that imo all bets are off.

[allinvain]

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

[error]

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

Back up above $7 again. Hope nobody panic sold.

[LZ]

S3052, what you think?

[allinvain]

wow we're back to the $6 range...pump and dump or just regular volatility?

Just big buyers and regular volatility...

Crazy stuff man. This makes the VIX indicator look like an asymptotic curve.

[coined]

I wonder if this panic selling can continue beyond monday/tuesday since the buyers can't get their money transfered in on the weekends,  during the last weekdays all the big sells were followed with massive even bigger buys soon after(surprising us all everytime   ), it looks to be much harder for the buyers to do anything about a panic sell off on the weekends, is that a fair observation?

again im just a pleb with no trading experience watching and wondering 

[Current-C]

I'd love to see a pullback to at least 5 but my suspicion is that we'll see a consolidation in the 7 range with slight upward drift for a little over a week.  This will set us up for a decisive attack on 10.

[allinvain]

I wonder if this panic selling can continue beyond monday/tuesday since the buyers can't get their money transfered in on the weekends,  during the last weekdays all the big sells were followed with massive even bigger buys soon after(surprising us all everytime   ), it looks to be much harder for the buyers to do anything about a panic sell off on the weekends, is that a fair observation?

again im just a pleb with no trading experience watching and wondering 

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday

[DukeOfEarl]

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday

This is more of a case that the Forex should be open 24/7.  So the rest of us can sell when the news comes out rather than only the big players.

duke

[bitcool]

Agree with you.

And it is even more than that:
The current rate of mining creates 7,000-10,000 bitcoins per day, 50,000 - 70,000 per week, 200,000 - 280,000 per month. This creates a lot of supply which, if not absorbed by buyers of bitcoins results in a  lot of technical overhead pressure on BTC/fiat currencies.

On the other hand, for a completely decentralized "fiat" currency, attracting 160K~224K inflow per month -- like in the past few months -- is quite remarkable.

There are no rich people competing to hoard BTC, which is a healthy thing at this stage. The trading volume shows this is still a very thin market but that can change on a dime any time.
 

Yeah, it's been surprising to watch it all unfold.  It never really was destined to last.  Still, I would contest the assumption that there are no wealthy players involved in Bitcoin.  All that we can really say is that no wealthy players have invested excessively in Bitcoin.

Now you've seen how it looks like when a few rich duds come to town.

[allinvain]

That's why the bitcoin exchanges should be closed on the weekend like the Forex market - ie close Friday open Sunday

This is more of a case that the Forex should be open 24/7.  So the rest of us can sell when the news comes out rather than only the big players.

duke

I suppose that can be the case as well, but most news releases come out during the weekday business days. A few items like international conferences and such do happen on Saturday when the markets are closed.

[S3052]

Interim update.

[kokjo]

Interim update.

so? prices will drop more glad to hear that.

Sell! Sell! Sell!

[PseudoCode]

a couple of questions for S3052 - One thing I have noticed about Bitcoin, is that whenever a large sale of coins happens, dropping the value significantly, is how *quickly* it rebounds, as many others seem to take the opportunity to snap up the newly liberated coins at a lower price.

Is this rapid-recovery tendency a likely indicator of an ever-increasing userbase driving demmand inexorably higher and quickly taking up the slack when a large speculator gets cold feet about continued growth and decides to dump a heap of coins and take their profit ?   

Is the viral spread of news and adoption of bitcoins enough to make it behave *unlike* the normal stock market (that everyone knows exists but only a small percentage of people decide to start playing in normally )and hence explain the rapid-recovery tendency ?

[Villem Anton]

S3052, a tip would be to look at volume in terms of USD. The picture is quite different and it clearly shows that in terms of USD turnover the last few days have been record high. The argument for this is that most new people will decide to invest X USD worth of bitcoins. So the activity should be considered in USD which is quite different when we have seen huge increase in BTC/USD recently.

[silversurfer]

S3052, a tip would be to look at volume in terms of USD. The picture is quite different and it clearly shows that in terms of USD turnover the last few days have been record high. The argument for this is that most new people will decide to invest X USD worth of bitcoins. So the activity should be considered in USD which is quite different when we have seen huge increase in BTC/USD recently.

I agree, this is more relevant.  Volume was record this week.  

Good luck getting money from your bank to Mt. Gox on a weekend.  Wait til next week to sell if that's what you want to do.  

Talk is cheap.  Put your money where your mouth is.

[kinghajj]

I think this chart says it all, really.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2010-10-09zeg2011-05-16zvzcvzlztgSzm1g10zm2g25

[eMansipater]

All bets are off now that bitcoin is on BoingBoing and they are quoting Calacanis' very bullish newsletter

Bitcoin is a P2P currency that could topple governments, destabilize economies and create uncontrollable global bazaars for contraband. (...) After month of research and discovery, we've learned the following:
1. Bitcoin is a technologically sound project.
2. Bitcoin is unstoppable without end-user prosecution.
3. Bitcoin is the most dangerous open-source project ever created.
4. Bitcoin may be the most dangerous technological project since the internet itself.
5. Bitcoin is a political statement by technotarians (technological libertarians).*
6. Bitcoins will change the world unless governments ban them with harsh penalties.

from http://www.boingboing.net/2011/05/15/bitcoin-a-new-peer-t.html

[marcus_of_augustus]

I agree it could be disruptive but I'm not sure that the liberal use of the word "dangerous" is warranted, being as it is subjective in that context.

A liberating force for good maybe dangerous to entrenched status quo interests. But breaking their oppressive stranglehold on the economic freedom of humanity is not dangerous for humanity, it's positively liberating.

[S3052]

This is what I started in another thread:http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8453.msg123329#msg123329


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