Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[FreeMoney]

@S3052
Assuming this is the case, how do you judge when the "tree" is going to peak?

Looking at the depth of market, it seems to be stalling under 8$... it may be now

big Ask resistance at 8$, low Bid resistance :/

Pfft. You can't wait 24 hours for each 10% rise?

[allinvain]

I'm no expert in these matters, but IMO it's very simple. The only time Bitcoin dropped in value was when Mtgox was DDoSed. All the other fluctuations correlate with articles in press and other exposure to the masses or lack thereof. I think the value will be increasing for a long time to come as long as there is a steady influx of new users

Bingo! You've hit the nail right on the head. Bitcoin has no choice but to go up as long as demand for them increases (ie new people coming in) It's as simple as that and no technical analysis can tell you this. With bitcoins we have to go to the fundamentals. It's not a mature market so there is no range of trading yet.

[bitcool]

I did a bit more analysis on the exponential rise and took a well known market for reference.
..
We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern, which very frequently happens after exponential rises.
I would not be surprised if we see a mirror image on Bitcoins in the next 2-3 weeks,
from whatever high will be marked
(perhaps it is the current one at 8.45 $ or we see another pop up higher.)

@s3052, just checked kitco (http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/ag0030lnb.html) , currently silver is at $35.3, it's not $30...yet.
(but my truck is backed up and ready to load)

[S3052]

Yes, bitcool, I know.
We are in the 32-35$ area over the past days. The jury is still out whether we will break 30$ or not, but even if I loose the 50 BTC to you, I am happy since I am short Silver since 43-49 $ ;-)

[molecular]

We are in a "x-mas tree" pattern

aaah, come on, now you're just making stuff up.

I think it's the shape of italy's west coast.



Note that time might reverse when we hit Genova. BTC still on track even then

(S3052, don't take this the wrong way, plz)

[bitcool]

Yes, bitcool, I know.
We are in the 32-35$ area over the past days. The jury is still out whether we will break 30$ or not, but even if I loose the 50 BTC to you, I am happy since I am short Silver since 43-49 $ ;-)

Congratulations if you've made money on the trades. I didn't sell, no regret though...a typical fundamentalist, you know.

[Dynotor]

I think it's the shape of italy's west coast.

https://i.imgur.com/zS6f8.jpg

Note that time might reverse when we hit Genova. BTC still on track even then

(S3052, don't take this the wrong way, plz)

ROFL!!!!  Hey, I notice that if we break downward, there's another trendline to resist further loss in the opposite coast...

(I also appreciate the more serious posts in this thread, and your thoughtful analysis S3052.)

[bitcool]

I got a feeling that Italy's coast lines can explain 99% of the world markets (stock/currency/commodity/whatever) movements, it all depends on how you move the map 

[S3052]

BTC/USD behaves like any other financial market when it comes to chart patterns.

On the daily chart, we are in the EXPONENTIAL RISING pattern, with high risk to reverse in the next days.

On the minute chart, we see an ENDING DIAGONAL pattern, which looks textbook-style. Under this assumption, the top at 9 $ is already in.

Key trigger levels are
(1) 7.9 $ - 8.2 $
(2) 7.4-7.6 $. Confirmation of exponential reverse
First target 6 $
Second target 4 $

Alternate scenario is that BTC/USD makes one more top before reversing down.

[eMansipater]

Trigger zone entered with drop below 8.2 USD.  Some of those btc sitting around 10USD are coming off the market--possibly to sell.

[molecular]

I got a feeling that Italy's coast lines can explain 99% of the world markets (stock/currency/commodity/whatever) movements, it all depends on how you move the map 

That was kind of my point. If you have many different patterns to match to some data, then multiple ones will match and you'll have no real assertion about the future. Also you have some additional possibilities that "change" the observed pattern: using different scales (log, linear,...), using different window (go to past 10 day, 2 months),...

I'm rather suspicious about these technical analysis tools. I also think the mtgox market is way to small, young and unexperienced to be analysed in this way. Also bitcoin is not something we've seen before.

It's very interesting nevertheless and I'm watching S3052's analysis regularly (and am also donating . I'm just saying: we should take it with a grain of salt.

[Enky1974]

I got a feeling that Italy's coast lines can explain 99% of the world markets (stock/currency/commodity/whatever) movements, it all depends on how you move the map 

That was kind of my point. If you have many different patterns to match to some data, then multiple ones will match and you'll have no real assertion about the future. Also you have some additional possibilities that "change" the observed pattern: using different scales (log, linear,...), using different window (go to past 10 day, 2 months),...

I'm rather suspicious about these technical analysis tools. I also think the mtgox market is way to small, young and unexperienced to be analysed in this way. Also bitcoin is not something we've seen before.

It's very interesting nevertheless and I'm watching S3052's analysis regularly (and am also donating . I'm just saying: we should take it with a grain of salt.

You're right, i'm trying to follow a mechanical system for day trading just to see if it's viable despite this thin market. For long term i use a daily chart and the oscillator i use it's  overbought since 17 April, crazy:)

[PseudoCode]

While I enjoy reading your technical analyses, In all my forum/article absorbing, I have not yet read any explanation of why bitcoin should be treated in the same fashion as any other stock-market stock in terms of pattern analysis.

With Bitcoins, as far as I can tell, we are not just talking about a new tech company vying for limited consumer discretionary spending with the latest "must have" gadget, nor is it merely a "store of value" or an investment portfolio component.

It seems to me to have beneficial aspects of all of those, as well as

offering freedom from onerous government regulation on what you can do with your money,

freedom from manipulation of your savings value by manipulation of reserve banks and "economic gurus" who think they know more about how an economy should be run than any of histories other failed advisers,

not requiring the resources of a powerful state backed by a big army to defend its monopoly on the right to use force "legitimately" to maintain its value

a way of moving unlimited amounts of "money" far more easily and quickly from place to place than practically any other currency

An openness and transparency not offered by any other currency in the history of the world

and no doubt other benefits I have forgotten to list..  

With the modern ability of the internet to spread viral information faster than any other time in history (how many had even *heard* of Linux 20 years ago vs how many have heard of it today ?) and more and more people getting online, surfing and joining a global border-free world economy and wanting to spend money and goods and services from around the world, I see any "saturation" limits as still being a long way off..

with a few *possible* failure modes that I have faith in the open-source community to solve as they are discovered..  much like many people said that "Linux will never take off because it lacks the resources of a big company behind it to take responsibility and fix problems"

Taking into account Bitcoin's attributes in that point-of-view, I see no reason why Bitcoin should be treated in the same fashion as any other traditional "stock", Its not just a stock or yet another currency, it is a whole new *system* of finance.

Who in 1990 thought the adoption of the internet would be so fast that the world would be running out of IP addresses just 20 years later ?   Bitcoin is as easily as revolutionary as TCP/IP was.

Maybe I have my head up my rectum, can anyone tell me why it *should* be considered to be "just another stock" and be expected to follow traditional stock pattens of the past ?   I see no reason why it cannot continue to rise exponentially for a long time yet.

[LMGTFY]

Maybe I have my head up my rectum, can anyone tell me why it *should* be considered to be "just another stock" and be expected to follow traditional stock pattens of the past ?

I don't think anyone is considering it as "just another stock". I consider it as one half of a currency pair. Comparing it with stock is less obvious, to me, than comparing it with currencies.

[Justsomeforumuser]

I just wanted to point out that my initial reaction(aka opinion) to anything I have read/seen from "S3052" is that he is not to be trusted.

Various reasons include, but are not limited to:

1. Advocating and promoting a ponzi / pyramid scheme openly on his twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst/status/69174383633117184


2. Claiming that he has "12+ years of trading experience", yet asks for donations to his bitcoin address. Anyone who has enough funds and experience to be in the trading game for a decade, trading with real money, has literally got it made. You would not be asking for donations nor selling anything.
At around 10.000 hours invested into something you reach a professional level, regardless of area.
Reference:

http://www.jeffkirvin.net/2008/12/10000-hours/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert

To spell it out: if you know what you are doing in an actual trading environment, you can push double digits in returns around every year. At that return level you are performing at cream of the crop hedge-fund level and will get fund management offers.

What doesn't happen is that you go to obscure virtual currency sites and ask for donations.


3. BTC does not have margin trading, established historical price levels or trustworthy market depth for any amount of "real" orders. Analysing it is akin to trying to do it with penny stocks..though I do admit if you try hard enough, you can generate areas of support and resistance on literally any chart that has price levels. Dito with formations, trendlines etc.
What I am trying to say is - what the guy is doing is trying to read tea leaves at the current stage of BTC evolution.


--


One way or another, and regardless of the validity of TA in the current stage of BTC, the guy seems to be banging on pots and pans for attention, promoting scams and begging for money.

Just wanted to warn people just in case there actually was a risk of someone taking him seriously.

[PseudoCode]

I consider it as one half of a currency pair.

Could you explain what this means or where I can read about what a "currency pair" is ?
Perhaps in another thread if it will hijack s3052's analysis thread

[edit]Never mind, I googled it.  reading now

[LMGTFY]

1. Advocating and promoting a ponzi / pyramid scheme openly on his twitter:
http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinAnalyst/status/69174383633117184

Oh, for goodness sake. Many, many people here "promote" this. It's humorous. It's a joke. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme, and no one (well, mostly no one) takes it seriously. I don't personally bother with it, but for those that do it's a bit of harmless fun.

2. Claiming that he has "12+ years of trading experience", yet asks for donations to his bitcoin address. Anyone who has enough funds and experience to be in the trading game for a decade, trading with real money, has literally got it made. You would not be asking for donations nor selling anything.

Yeah, right. Try looking around the web and see how many people give away trading analysis. Most charge for it all, some give you "teasers" to encourage you to pay for the whole thing. In any event, trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire". I have trading experience (not nearly as much) and I can assure you I'm in no way wealthy.

3. BTC does not have margin trading, established historical price levels or trustworthy market depth for any amount of "real" orders. Analysing it is aking to trying to do it with penny stocks..though I do admit if you try hard enough, you can generate areas of support and resistance on literally any chart that has price levels. Dito with formations, trendlines etc.
What I am trying to say is - what the guy is doing is trying to read tea leaves at the current stage of BTC evolution.

Right... because until we had margin trading technical analysis was impossible.

There are valid criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin. But these are not them.

[LMGTFY]

I consider it as one half of a currency pair.

Could you explain what this means or where I can read about what a "currency pair" is ?
Perhaps in another thread if it will hijack s3052's analysis thread
Never mind, I googled it.  reading now

Sure, a currency pair is something like "GBP/USD" (trading US dollars and British pounds) or "JPY/CHF" (trading Japanese yen and Swiss francs). When you buy one currency you're using another currency to purchase it, hence "pairs".

Edit: oops, now realise you'd found the answer. Hopefully the Wikipedia link will still be useful to someone, however.

[FooDSt4mP]

how many had even *heard* of Linux 20 years ago vs how many have heard of it today

0.  He started working on it in April of 1991, so it existed, but internally he called it "Freax".  He announced he was working on it in August of that year (so a few more months we'll be at 20 years), but still didn't mention the name (and still called it freax).  In September, the admin who set up his FTP for the first release decided Freax was a shitty name and named his directory "Linux".  Soon after, at least 10 people had heard of Linux .

[Justsomeforumuser]

Oh, for goodness sake. Many, many people here "promote" this. It's humorous. It's a joke. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme, and no one (well, mostly no one) takes it seriously. I don't personally bother with it, but for those that do it's a bit of harmless fun.

Is that what Madoff said, too?
No, but seriously - when people promote it, they are lending it life/credence, and the bottom line is that it's a classic ponzi scheme. How you FEEL about it is up to anyone(chuckle lulul), but it is what it is.
My point was: it's a Ponzi scheme.
Yours is that that's great fun.
Some might disagree.

Yeah, right. Try looking around the web and see how many people give away trading analysis. Most charge for it all, some give you "teasers" to encourage you to pay for the whole thing. In any event, trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire". I have trading experience (not nearly as much) and I can assure you I'm in no way wealthy.

I know sites, blogs, twitters that would take more time to read than there is time in the day, all "analysing the market". It's not as if they are hard to find, but the use is disputeable with all of them.

As for 'trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire"' - I did not claim that, but anyone who knows how to trade either goes into obscurity and money eventually(and past just double digits) or gets attention. I know, because I know people thus concerned..and none of them ever, ever, EVER asked anyone for money for anything unless they decided to run active tutelage(which I understand when pricey, simply because you have to weigh it against your own opportunity cost and time investment).

Right... because until we had margin trading technical analysis was impossible.

That was not my point. My point was simply that with barely a chart history it's rather tough to chart out s/r levels, and without proper market depth(liquidity), reliability of price levels in general becomes questionable. If you can create no-bid/-ask situations much more easily, then prices can go wonky much more easily.

There are valid criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin. But these are not them.

Cool, list me some.