Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[pupsudio]

Certainly the feedback loop has caught up to people? I mean, who is ordering from cointerra? Who thinks there is any chance of a btc profit there? We have the required feedback to know it's a bad idea, yet their hardware will continue to be produced.

What about people paying $7000 for a Jupiter? The feedback is all over the place yet I guess people are still ordering, but at this point, even if people don't order, that hardware will get used.

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[jmw74]

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.

Yup, that is true, there is a delay between paying and beginning to mine.  However, there has been a market for people selling their pre-order place in line so that should mitigate the effect you describe.  They weren't locked in.

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.  That's a big mistake on KNC's part, IMO.

That's one thing BFL did right - they at least allowed a secondary market to exist.

[jmw74]

Certainly the feedback loop has caught up to people? I mean, who is ordering from cointerra? Who thinks there is any chance of a btc profit there? We have the required feedback to know it's a bad idea, yet their hardware will continue to be produced.

What about people paying $7000 for a Jupiter? The feedback is all over the place yet I guess people are still ordering, but at this point, even if people don't order, that hardware will get used.

In theory, at least, that should keep KNC (and other producers) honest.  They make their best guess how much a Jupiter will earn mining, let's say 50 btc.  If they price it at 100btc, no one buys it and they're left mining with it, receiving only 50btc.  If they price it at 55btc, it's more likely to be sold and beating KNC's own estimate of what they'd earn if it doesn't sell.

Unfortunately there are a lot of greedy and foolish people out there willing to overpay, and if KNC counts on this, it distorts the prices.

[pupsudio]

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.

c) they won't let you

[cognoscente]

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-32

[BigLad]

Surprised while everyone seems to be bickering heres the latest update...

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;

Firstly, let us address the small competition KnCMiner held on Bitcointalk.org to create the phrase chosen to populate all our boards;

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3019140#msg3019140

The entries were brilliant, there were some genuine laugh out loud choices, as well as a variety of creative mash-ups with reference to space and Bitcoin mining. We did take note of entries within our main thread, as well as the thread dwdoc started, and the later thread included in the ‘Newbie’ section started by happyagnostic. So we promise, no one was overlooked. Whilst there were several honourable mentions, including;

Commanderuk – Difficulties mastered are opportunities won.

600watt – Mine the Gap.

Kaerf – “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks”

The joint – where zeros and ones become heroes and fun.

The Avenger – “A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is a reality” – John Lennon

BigLad – Uranus is next… (not really but that got a superb reaction)

There was however one clear winner, and whilst a lot of consideration has been given into stating what that is, we’re in two minds about revealing it until the boards are in our hands. So we would like to tease you a little further about what that maybe, but in all honesty we all agreed upon the choice as soon as we saw it.

We have sent the member a private message, and have just sent him the final design for his approval. He has agreed to keep quiet, until such point as he is welcome to claim total credit.

KnCMiner do have boards in our possession to use in the meantime for testing purposes, so having the controller boards printed with the phrase will not delay us in any way, but that design has now been optimised, The order has now been placed and we are very happy with the result.

Secondly with regards to CGminer, and it’s opensource protocol we’ve been able to configure our device unassisted and made a greater than 30% performance increase using the underlying code, for which we would like to thank both kano and ckolivas with their outstanding contribution to the community.

Next we wish to address the concerns surrounding why we have suggested power supplies capable of overcompensating for our promised maximum power consumption = 1.6 W/GH/s. Again, the answer lies within our motto of under-promising, and over-delivering, but this time we wish to extend the margins to yourselves and ensue you have enough power to allow for the additional hashrate our devices are certain to supply.

Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com

[timmmers]

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

And what do you buy bitcoins with?

He's right. The initial cost is in flat not BTC which you've had to buy or obtain in some way that cost you flat.
I could just as easily say that I could make more trading BTC with leverage, or trading gold....but that's not the point, nor the topic of this thread...it's about KnC Miners and mining.

In fact if you buy a miner and do decent research and pick one like KnC you double your chances of a profit...one chance being that you get past break even, the other that even if you don't in the near future your mined BTC will eventually rise in value and give you a better return than your original dollar/pound/euro investment. Plus you have a rig that might have value in the future.

[plasmoske]

but that design has now been optimised

Sounds good.

[bbxx]

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;
....
Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com

ok. so no chips, no working boards with thoose chips, no stability tests etc.
3 weeks left
good luck, bfl has chips few months before delivery, you have no chips and 3 weeks.

[jmw74]

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

And what do you buy bitcoins with?

He's right. The initial cost is in flat not BTC which you've had to buy or obtain in some way that cost you flat.
I could just as easily say that I could make more trading BTC with leverage, or trading gold....but that's not the point, nor the topic of this thread...it's about KnC Miners and mining.

The initial cost can be fiat or BTC, since KNC accepts bitpay.  If a Jupiter is 60 BTC and you don't think it will pay back > 60 BTC then you shouldn't buy one.  

[ImI]

https://www.kncminer.com/news

Small Update
8/30/2013 2:01:00 PM
Ok so a few of announcements;
....
Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September.

Thanks,

KnCMiner Team.

www.kncminer.com

ok. so no chips, no working boards with thoose chips, no stability tests etc.
3 weeks left
good luck, bfl has chips few months before delivery, you have no chips and 3 weeks.

you are so pathetic.

[crumbs]

...
What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.

Yup, that is true, there is a delay between paying and beginning to mine.  However, there has been a market for people selling their pre-order place in line so that should mitigate the effect you describe.  They weren't locked in.

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.  That's a big mistake on KNC's part, IMO.

That's one thing BFL did right - they at least allowed a secondary market to exist.

Buying & selling of pre-orders can't extinguish *any* of the hashrate that will go online once those pre-orders ship.
Once the pre-orders are placed, the hashrate *is* locked in.
Once X(MH/s) are pre-ordered, the hash rate can only increase, never decrease.  The only exceptions are refunds (though if the gear exists, it will be mined), and electricity costs making mining unprofitable for certain miners (unlikely in near-term).

My point is trivial -- there exists a plausible scenario where *all* the miners who have pre-ordered their gear will be mining at a loss.  This scenario is made more probable by the pre-order schemes and the constant influx of new ASIC manufacturers.  

[-Redacted-]

That's why most people here have bbxx, crumbs, and kuroth on IGNORE.

[jelin1984]

i think that first miners will be ship at end of october
so no roi
my friends
no roi

i think knc must delivered jupiter with 6 boards not 4 boards

[bbxx]

That's why most people here have bbxx, crumbs, and kuroth on IGNORE.

lol, only circle jerks, paid shills and trolls have ignored me.
read my post history it is not crap.

[jmw74]

...
What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.

Yup, that is true, there is a delay between paying and beginning to mine.  However, there has been a market for people selling their pre-order place in line so that should mitigate the effect you describe.  They weren't locked in.

I do agree though that with KNCMiner you *are* locked in.  You can't sell your place in line because a) you don't know it and b) it's not clear that being first in line will result in receiving your order significantly earlier than anyone else.  That's a big mistake on KNC's part, IMO.

That's one thing BFL did right - they at least allowed a secondary market to exist.

Buying & selling of pre-orders can't extinguish *any* of the hashrate that will go online once those pre-orders ship.
Once the pre-orders are placed, the hashrate *is* locked in.
Once X(MH/s) are pre-ordered, the hash rate can only increase, never decrease.  The only exceptions are refunds (though if the gear exists, it will be mined), and electricity costs making mining unprofitable for certain miners (unlikely in near-term).

My point is trivial -- there exists a plausible scenario where *all* the miners who have pre-ordered their gear will be mining at a loss.  This scenario is made more probable by the pre-order schemes and the constant influx of new ASIC manufacturers.  

Can't argue with you there.  It's definitely plausible.  

Whether I profit or not depends almost entirely on when I receive my equipment relative to everyone else.  For example, Jeff Garzik received his avalon first and hit ROI in a couple of days.  

However let's say Avalon had shipped their entire supply at once so that everyone began mining at the same time.  It's plausible that absolutely everyone who ordered one would have taken a loss.

[Roger100]

Anyone here asked for a refund on a knc miner? If so, did you get your money back in a timely manner?

[carlotech]

Yup true no roi.

[sickpig]

Anyone here asked for a refund on a knc miner? If so, did you get your money back in a timely manner?

There are plenty of posts about refunds, they are waiting for you to read

[Biomech]

Ok. I asked this in another thread already, but HERE, I particularly do not understand where a lot of you are coming from.

First off, no matter what you WILL achieve ROI, so I have to assume you mean POSITIVE ROI. But even given that niggle, there is virtually no way these machines will not reach break even in a fairly short time, after which your only ongoing expense is electricity, which is not that great of an expense on these devices.

So, those of you crying "no ROI" over and over again, WHAT FREAKIN" TIME FRAME ARE YOU TRYING TO BEAT?

I mean really. An ivestment that is likely to break even in less than a year??? That's insanely positive by most any business metric you care to apply! There are many investors who do not intend to break even for decades in other areas of business. I think the doom and gloom shows a deep lack of belief in the long term viability of bitcoin itself. I don't know how representative you are, but if you, the hardcore miners, are this concerned about the short term, then perhaps the experiment has already failed.

Or you just aren't thinking it through.

In the long term, bitcoin will succeed or fail based on just one thing. Acceptance by the markets.

THAT is what you ALL should be focusing on. If the coin does not purchase anything, it is worthless. If it does, it is not. The wider it's acceptance, given it's built in scarcity, the greater it's long term value. Thus, if you get declining returns from your miner (somewhat inevitable) but the market grows, then your ROI is directly positively affected. OTOH, if a lot of miners throw their hands in the air and their machines in the dustbin, the difficulty drops, and the miners that remain grab buckets full of bitcoin, it won't matter at all if the markets do not accept it as a viable unit of exchange.

Personally, I think it's really only a few short sighted individuals making a lot of noise, but do think about what you are saying about the long term of this experiment before deciding that break even has to occur the day after tomorrow or there is no profit.