Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[sbfree]

I've spoken personally to a couple people now about their dealings with TerraHash as well and it's not favorable at all?  What is going to happen, people like Intel and Samsung coming in and crushing all the small time players?  I am just looking for my small piece of the pie here.

Just buy bitcoins then. Or buy from a company that has stock in hand already, like bitfury. If you want to take a risk and invest into a pre-order I would suggest going with KnC. Also make sure you check out http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Is http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ the best calc to use at this point?  I see a bunch of them out there and this seems to be the only one that is either very accurate or is the least favorable.

It's very pessimistic, it takes into account the compunded exponential rise in hashrate, rather than a fixed rate over time, that's why it's become popular. It's not accurate though, nothing can be unless it can foresee the Bitcoin SP, and related price fluctuations.

Also it bases prices of kit bought in November and beyond on what details we have now. Miners won't be selling for those prices come Jan. They will have to be priced more competitively.

Crucially for KnC buyers is what happens between Sept and Jan and how quick we can plug in units configured to wallets, which is also out of out hands currently...

Bitcoinorama, I noticed you said "we" in your last line....I take it you are a buyer of at least one of these units then? I do recall you stating early on that you were interested in a possible PR type job with an ASIC company....but I don't recall you stating that you were also a buyer of a KNC UNIT.

Just checking is all....

If you'd check the thread from the beginning the entire purpose of me going there was to check they existed for my own purchase. Additionally I wanted to check out an engineering firm in a discipline I'm heavily interested in. At no point ever have I said I wanted a PR type job, although that's generally what people try to position me as. Largely as London has more advertising than engineering roles, and i'm well spoken. The rest is pure speculation from a forum. Though, I studied an engineering discipline from a highly regarded UK Engineering University, it would be interesting to actually use the degrees I entertained the debt for.

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

[1714302885]

1714302885

[Bitcoinorama]

btw. I've rec'd apologies from Croppo, and he's earned my respect back. Trust profile restored & unignored.

I think he's slowly coming round to the fact the company exists and are making a real effort to provide a worthwhile product for all concerned.

Perhaps he means well, but he certainly entered the thread on the wrong foot.

In any case he seems amicable enough once he's on the right path, and anyone who is sincere in their apology is worthy of forgiveness as long as no damage has been done.

Bygones be bygones, life's too short, etc.

[Phoenix1969]

http://www.lineagepower.com/oem/pdf/MDT040A0X.pdf

Max efficiency at 0.6V out w/ 12V input - 84%
Max efficiency at 1.2V out w/ 12V input - 90%
Max efficiency at 1.8V out w/ 12V input - 92%

And the whopper, 1.5ms typical rise in output current from 10% to 90%.  Not very responsive for such a small converter, esp for switching at 400khz.

And did you see that ripple voltage? !!!
Oh my gosh, between 8-20mVp-p at 1 volt!

It's too bad they couldn't use 2 of them at once.
It's too bad they don't have a SYNC function.
It's too bad the SYNC function couldn't be programmed to reduce ripple by interleaving.

If only there were such things.

Oh wait.....
They do have those functions.

Gee I wonder if the KnC guys noticed or it was just coinkydink

It's too bad the pdf you linked didn't include examples of how to deal with the known limitations.
Oh wait.....

All DC/DC converters have limitations.
The efficiency is not bad. It's 80+ and that's DC/DC at 1/12th supply V.

An engineer could design better given enough time and money.

But (there's always a 'but')

Not if you wanted off the shelf _and_ wanted some headroom within the $$$/time budget.
IMneverHO

25% of possible total supply voltage range for the device seems quite flexible to me.
They have V to spare if their thermal budget has any room left.

I almost forgot.
"And the whopper, 1.5ms typical rise in output current from 10% to 90%."

It's too bad they couldn't place caps around the ASIC to compensate.
Oh wait.....

Are you some kind of inductorologist with mad skillz?
I didn't notice your suggestion for a better choice.
Please include delivery time and cost savings if you do venture an opinion.

To me their DC/DC supply fits exactly their 'margin on top of margin' claim.
Thx for the link!

Time will tell

Coincidentally, I am designing a 3 phase DC/DC power circuit that currently delivers 0.84V @80A w/ ~92% efficiency based around the LTC-3829, tunable @5mV increments, powered by a 12V ATX supply (+-10 nominal).  Each phases lower FET dissipates a maximum of 0.75W, which is the highest of any single component in the design.   I've got roughly 20 hours into the design.  Further, synching does not eliminate ripple.   In ideal situtations yes, however that's why any spice simulator worth using allows sweeps of tolerance ranges.  The reality is that the load is not uniform across the phases.  I'm not even going to address the rise time and caps comment as its obvious you have little experience with this type of circuitry.

The reason I mention the inefficiencies of their supply choice are that the poor choice of external PSU was due to "lower heat" then a week later post that they are dumping an extra 100W of heat into the chassis, which about what a good PSU would do (80% vs 90+% designs that are readily available).  All it takes is looking at any motherboard, gpu, or other high amperage, low volt device and making a few emails.

Ultrix, I'm sorry, but I just don't see your point here. What exactly are you trying to say (can it be summed up in a couple sentences?) Because it looks to me as if your not happy with the choice.
Do you have a better one?
Share it, and maybe on gen 2...
otherwise....?   dont get it
-edit-
But at the end there You DO like the choice.....ok   I totally missed that, sry
I totally thought you implied a poor choice, and got lost in the data before seeing the last comments
The sarcastic nature makes it hard to follow...
btw...
"1.5ms typical rise in output current from 10% to 90%."
seems spectacular to me...   You have a better example with a comparable module?

[Bitcoinorama]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

[Vagnavs]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

what is the expected ship date for the July orders? To the best of your knowledge. Is it September or October.
Thanks for your time,
Brian

[greenbtc]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

what is the expected ship date for the July orders? To the best of your knowledge. Is it September or October.
Thanks for your time,
Brian

Here is what has been stated in previous time lines, and this is what they say they are still on track with:

Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September.

Everything else is shipping in October.

[rizzman]

I've spoken personally to a couple people now about their dealings with TerraHash as well and it's not favorable at all?  What is going to happen, people like Intel and Samsung coming in and crushing all the small time players?  I am just looking for my small piece of the pie here.

Just buy bitcoins then. Or buy from a company that has stock in hand already, like bitfury. If you want to take a risk and invest into a pre-order I would suggest going with KnC. Also make sure you check out http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Is http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ the best calc to use at this point?  I see a bunch of them out there and this seems to be the only one that is either very accurate or is the least favorable.

It's very pessimistic, it takes into account the compunded exponential rise in hashrate, rather than a fixed rate over time, that's why it's become popular. It's not accurate though, nothing can be unless it can foresee the Bitcoin SP, and related price fluctuations.

Also it bases prices of kit bought in November and beyond on what details we have now. Miners won't be selling for those prices come Jan. They will have to be priced more competitively.

Crucially for KnC buyers is what happens between Sept and Jan and how quick we can plug in units configured to wallets, which is also out of out hands currently...

Bitcoinorama, I noticed you said "we" in your last line....I take it you are a buyer of at least one of these units then? I do recall you stating early on that you were interested in a possible PR type job with an ASIC company....but I don't recall you stating that you were also a buyer of a KNC UNIT.

Just checking is all....

MANY pages ago, he said he bought one unit I believe...

[ultrix]

Ultrix, I'm sorry, but I just don't see your point here. What exactly are you trying to say (can it be summed up in a couple sentences?) Because it looks to me as if your not happy with the choice.
Do you have a better one?
Share it, and maybe on gen 2...
otherwise....?   dont get it
-edit-
But at the end there You DO like the choice.....ok   I totally missed that, sry
I totally thought you implied a poor choice, and got lost in the data before seeing the last comments
The sarcastic nature makes it hard to follow...
btw...
"1.5ms typical rise in output current from 10% to 90%."
seems spectacular to me...   You have a better example with a comparable module? (other than adding caps)

To put it into perspective, I'm getting ~300us (0.3ms) rise times.   The comments weren't sarcastic.  Their choice was poor, its not a supply you'd want to chose for such an application due to efficiency.  If you look at similar supplies on motherboards and GPUs 85% is typically the lowest you'll see.  Usually numbers are in the low 90's.   If you're relying on caps to correct this you're really going to have to watch over current in the h-bridges as this causes over corrections by the switching IC.  This is due to two part, the temporary additional load needs to be provided and the switch attempts to stabilize this.  All inductors have different inductance at different power loads typically presented as a curve of impedance @ amps @ a specific voltage.  Towards the right hand side of each of these curves is a point where the inductance drastically decreases.  This leads to the switching IC performing a series of over corrections.

I mentioned my design to indicate level of effort put into a more appropriate design and associated performance metrics.  Its intended for a 32 chip Bitfury board to go in a 12 board chassis.  The goal is a 4U @1TH/s with < 1kw wall consumption.  I've only got a handful of chips currently and still waiting on lab time to properly characterize them before finalizing design and doing a prototype run.  Not planning on selling it, might not even fully build it after testing the design, just something to do in spare time.

[Vagnavs]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

what is the expected ship date for the July orders? To the best of your knowledge. Is it September or October.
Thanks for your time,
Brian

Here is what has been stated in previous time lines, and this is what they say they are still on track with:

Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September.

Everything else is shipping in October.

Bitcoinorama can you confirm that?

[2112]

To put it into perspective, I'm getting ~300us (0.3ms) rise times.

Can you explain why would rise time (or any other dynamic load parameter) matter for a miner power supply?

This isn't a CPU or anything similar that will have to cope with the changes of the load.

The bitminer works 100% load all the time. I wanted to write "full throttle", but it is more like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_emergency_power throttle setting.

[sbfree]

2112, what can you tell us about KNC's latest post/picture of the PCB....your opinion is highly regarded, thanks.

[sickpig]

2112, what can you tell us about KNC's latest post/picture of the PCB....your opinion is highly regarded, thanks.

I do agree. I was waiting for a 2112's post on the PCM since they published news-30

[Bitcoinorama]

I hope I didn't rile you up bitcoinorama....I have actually read every single page in this thread and then some.....and I just don't ever recall you stating that you had purchased a unit, or rather ordered it because purchase would imply delivered/received.

Anyhow, I have ORDERED a Saturn from KNC....although it is not day 1 or day 2, it was ordered very shortly after, so maybe "day 3" for me,
HOW ABOUT YOU?

No worries. I said before I was looking to purchase one or two units, I wasn't putting all my eggs in one basket. Sensible approach. I will consider more once the device is proven and we know how the network is behaving.

By now I expected all Avalons and bulk chips to be hashing. I'm still shocked and to be fair annoyed for those involved that they aren't. I also expected Bitfury to be onboard and in the wild by mid-August.

I never planned for BFL, neither am I holding my breath there. I'm also not expecting another 28nm entrant till at least December, but I maybe wrong.

I don't feel comfortable 'throwing money' at something with so many unknowns. I feel safe if KnC deliver on time we will be in profit before any real completion surfaces, but then I won't be shocked by any surprises after the past 6 months.

what is the expected ship date for the July orders? To the best of your knowledge. Is it September or October.
Thanks for your time,
Brian

Here is what has been stated in previous time lines, and this is what they say they are still on track with:

Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September.

Everything else is shipping in October.

Bitcoinorama can you confirm that?

Mate, I'm in no position to confirm anything, other than what Greenbtc has mentioned above is accurate as far as I know. They said the first two days would be Sept, that they can ramp up and scale production as needed.

From their point of view the sooner they get rid of pre-orders the sooner they get to magically say 'units in stock', which will breath a sigh of relief from everyone and an end to the pre-order BS. I totally understand the need for pre-orders, but there's been way too much abuse from scammers and gamblers purposely avoiding accountability.

[ultrix]

To put it into perspective, I'm getting ~300us (0.3ms) rise times.

Can you explain why would rise time (or any other dynamic load parameter) matter for a miner power supply?

This isn't a CPU or anything similar that will have to cope with the changes of the load.

The bitminer works 100% load all the time. I wanted to write "full throttle", but it is more like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_emergency_power throttle setting.

Exactly what you said is the answer.  IC's are not typically designed to handle under current very well and typically things like enable signaling is left out of the design on mining hardware for the reason you indicated, they are always running.  The slow rise times, as I'm inferring that you know from your previous knowledgeable posts, have adverse effects, especially on larger dies.  I don't have any extra cards here, but one could test this by pulling the GPU BGA, attaching a sequence of increasingly sized load resistor, and measuring rise times.   Following this, one could add rise delays to another card, which should be easy given the required pour patterns of most h-bridges, and measure GPU errors at different delays (going from idle to load is analogous to the problem we're discussing).

[FeedbackLoop]

Is http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ the best calc to use at this point?  I see a bunch of them out there and this seems to be the only one that is either very accurate or is the least favorable.

It's very pessimistic, it takes into account the compunded exponential rise in hashrate, rather than a fixed rate over time, that's why it's become popular. It's not accurate though, nothing can be unless it can foresee the Bitcoin SP, and related price fluctuations.

What do you mean? Isn't the rise exponential?

Yes but the SP isn't fixed, is it? Although we can assume within a standard deviation there is some accuracy without a significant newsworthy change occurring to impact it either positively, or negatively.

What's SP?

Sorry you use it in trading, it means 'stock price', or 'sale price'. I was referring to the BTC/USD exchange price.

But if the miner is only profitable (in USD) if the exchange rate increases then you are better off buying BTC upfront. I don't see the point of calculations assuming a variable exchange rate.

Perhaps but you have to attribute the value of the currency to something familiar until such point it is recognised by it's own merit. Currently you pay for your electricity in some forum of fiat, and the bits of the coin (satoshis) you profit with a day will at somepoint be dictated by the electricity cost to accumulate them and of course the overall price you paid to get there via the mining device of choice.

OK, so you are saying that even though the calculator says that the miner will not break even, it might end up having long-term profitability if the BTC exchange rate increase keeps compensating for the electricity costs. But if that is the case then wouldn't the difficulty also be increasing a lot with even more miners jumping in? And thus don't we get back to the situation were it is better to buy BTC upfront and forget about the miner?

 






 

[tolip_wen]

Coincidentally, I am designing a 3 phase DC/DC power circuit that currently delivers 0.84V @80A w/ ~92% efficiency based around the LTC-3829, tunable @5mV increments, powered by a 12V ATX supply (+-10 nominal).  Each phases lower FET dissipates a maximum of 0.75W, which is the highest of any single component in the design.   I've got roughly 20 hours into the design.  Further, synching does not eliminate ripple.   In ideal situtations yes, however that's why any spice simulator worth using allows sweeps of tolerance ranges.  The reality is that the load is not uniform across the phases.  I'm not even going to address the rise time and caps comment as its obvious you have little experience with this type of circuitry.

The reason I mention the inefficiencies of their supply choice are that the poor choice of external PSU was due to "lower heat" then a week later post that they are dumping an extra 100W of heat into the chassis, which about what a good PSU would do (80% vs 90+% designs that are readily available).  All it takes is looking at any motherboard, gpu, or other high amperage, low volt device and making a few emails.

I figured you were an inductorologist. (you claim to be anyways)
I'm curious if your design uses off the shelf inductors.

I clearly stated that better designs were possible.

Your design is still on the drawing board.
Their supply is pictured mounted on a printed circuit board.

Why would you design a supply if there are such good choices available already?
Is it possible that the price and/or availability was a factor in their decision?

My point is that it is likely good enough for the application.
It comes down to price and availability.
They had to pull the trigger a while ago.
All designs involve compromise.

As an inductorologist you might naturally have different ideas in your field of study.
Do you also design ASICS, and have connections to get them to market quickly?
There's money to be made in them thar hills!

Why don't you contact KnC and see if they are interested in your design for future products?
You could also sell retrofit parts for rev 1 miners.
According to you everyone who purchases a miner will need one.

If you are right and the rise time prevents proper function of the miner I will admit I was wrong.
On the gripping hand,,,
Will you do the same if the roles are reversed?

Perhaps one of us should "die in a fire immediatly" if we are wrong.
You do advocate such things.

Time will tell

[btc_uzr]

IF Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September
  AND everything else is shipping in October THEN

there are 2 possible scenarios:
1) day1 is Friday 27th, day2 is Monday 30th, so everything beyond day2 is October
2) they ship day1 for ex. on Monday 16th, ship day2 on Monday 23th and rest in October

I remember that they mentioned continuous delivery, not batch based.
So scenario 2 would mean boxes are ready to ship, difficulty increases, but they are not shipping them... oh boy, ppl will freak out and travel to Stockholm knocking on KnC's door to get their pre-paid miners I guess.

This implies from my point of view that scenario 1 is the more likely one.
Then I'm curious to see how ppl will behave when difficulty increases during September, I'd not be surprised if many buyers will cancel orders.

Please point out in case I'm wrong or missing sth.

[ultrix]

Coincidentally, I am designing a 3 phase DC/DC power circuit that currently delivers 0.84V @80A w/ ~92% efficiency based around the LTC-3829, tunable @5mV increments, powered by a 12V ATX supply (+-10 nominal).  Each phases lower FET dissipates a maximum of 0.75W, which is the highest of any single component in the design.   I've got roughly 20 hours into the design.  Further, synching does not eliminate ripple.   In ideal situtations yes, however that's why any spice simulator worth using allows sweeps of tolerance ranges.  The reality is that the load is not uniform across the phases.  I'm not even going to address the rise time and caps comment as its obvious you have little experience with this type of circuitry.

The reason I mention the inefficiencies of their supply choice are that the poor choice of external PSU was due to "lower heat" then a week later post that they are dumping an extra 100W of heat into the chassis, which about what a good PSU would do (80% vs 90+% designs that are readily available).  All it takes is looking at any motherboard, gpu, or other high amperage, low volt device and making a few emails.

I figured you were an inductorologist. (you claim to be anyways)
I'm curious if your design uses off the shelf inductors.

I clearly stated that better designs were possible.

Your design is still on the drawing board.
Their supply is pictured mounted on a printed circuit board.

Why would you design a supply if there are such good choices available already?
Is it possible that the price and/or availability was a factor in their decision?

My point is that it is likely good enough for the application.
It comes down to price and availability.
They had to pull the trigger a while ago.
All designs involve compromise.

As an inductorologist you might naturally have different ideas in your field of study.
Do you also design ASICS, and have connections to get them to market quickly?
There's money to be made in them thar hills!

Why don't you contact KnC and see if they are interested in your design for future products?
You could also sell retrofit parts for rev 1 miners.
According to you everyone who purchases a miner will need one.

If you are right and the rise time prevents proper function of the miner I will admit I was wrong.
On the gripping hand,,,
Will you do the same if the roles are reversed?

Perhaps one of us should "die in a fire immediatly" if we are wrong.
You do advocate such things.

Time will tell

I'm not an "inductorologist".  Noone is.  It was a sarcastic statement someone else made.   I am a mathematician who works in the electronics field and to be honest, I typically don't design our power systems, I work on ICs.   However after > 10 years of working side by side with the people who do, you tend to pick up a few things.   Of course my circuit uses off the shelf components.  I wasn't indicating my design suited their purposed, was only mentioned to illustrate doing better doesn't cost much time.  As previously mentioned, I've got ~20 hours into my design, most of which was going through data sheets, setting up spice sims, and altering schematics.  80% is crap efficiency, especially at > $20 BOM cost for the module (modules are generally more expensive).  All designs start as schematics, excluding trivial ones.  Layout and board fabrication is trivial.  Factoring in extraneous variables ahead of time is the difference between winning and losing.

Solution:
Get any one of the dozens of modules that have > 90% efficiency at the voltage and currents desired and internalize the power supply.   Overall same heat inside the chassis, better performance per watt.  Both things that are key factors in the market they are trying to sell into.

[Bitcoinorama]

OK, so you are saying that even though the calculator says that the miner will not break even, it might end up having long-term profitability if the BTC exchange rate increase keeps compensating for the electricity costs. But if that is the case then wouldn't the difficulty also be increasing a lot with even more miners jumping in? And thus don't we get back to the situation were it is better to buy BTC upfront and forget about the miner?

Potentially, there is a wave of hysteria Bitcoin mining is riding on culminating from both the attention sub ECB theft in Cyprus and the subsequent media furore and with that of the tech transition to ASICs which has become something of a race. Whenever profits are to be made, especially from something as ludicrous as plugging in a machine, people will dive in, and as you've seen on this forum, many diving head first without looking. You have fools wanting to turn a quick buck at one end, and private equity where marginal profits spread over greater investment and cheap electricity still give greater gains than traditional investments at the other. Somewhere in between you have clued up geeks who get the tech and know what they are looking for. For now I see KnC potentially riding in pole position for their customers. Technically ASICminer, Bitsyncom and Butterfly Labs have poled 1, 2, and 3, for the manufacturers trophy, but proportionately very few of their customer base have benefitted. ASICminer to an extent, more so if you we're fortunate to hold shares from there initial offering, but not from their stock, Bitsyncom and BFL have both kept to bare minimum happy, but in reality, one way or another they've all scalped the lions share of profits for themselves with Bitsyncom and BFL knowingly shafting the majority of those that have supported them.

Amusingly when purchasing the coins, the greater interest clearly leads to a rise on their value, where as with mining the increase leads to a reduction in profit. I see mining inevitably going to areas with cheap renewable electricity and shared ownership.

For now though there is a window of opportunity to profit from owning the next gen tech. Asics haven't arrived yet in the grand scheme of things, BFL have fumbled the ball, Bitsyncom have some huge explaining to do, as their current excuses are total crap, Bitfury is on track, and the main 28nm competitor I don't think is being at all honest with respect to their 'anticipated' October timescale, I maybe wrong, but they definitely don't want people holding them to it.

So in answer I have some coins, they've done nothing exciting of recent. Short of major and favourable regulatory legislation from the Western world, or Far East, or for that matter another central bank theft, or a major international incident forcing savers to leap to Bitcoin as a vehicle for currency protection I don't see huge movement in the next six months. If KnC deliver on time, I'm confident in at least having an entertaining gamble work out. We'll (us plural, reading this thread) have to reconsider our options come January, but w.r.t. KnC they clearly have ROI covered and are very smart and competitive, so I expect to see them adapt and continue to offer those that support them a favourable deal. They aren't about to hang up their gloves and retire if this works out. ORSoC want to remain fully involved with crypto, they were very specific about that at the openday. Plus, clearly they are forward thinkers, they had the nouse to hit 28nm ahead of everyone else and break records for bleeding edge tech development, whilst limiting the risk for those supporting them, so expect plenty more innovation if they pull this off. I just hope they blatantly reward those that support them with advance purchase of next gen, preferred pricing, etc.

[Phoenix1969]

IF Day 1 & Day 2 orders are shipping in September
  AND everything else is shipping in October THEN

there are 2 possible scenarios:
1) day1 is Friday 27th, day2 is Monday 30th, so everything beyond day2 is October
2) they ship day1 for ex. on Monday 16th, ship day2 on Monday 23th and rest in October

I remember that they mentioned continuous delivery, not batch based.
So scenario 2 would mean boxes are ready to ship, difficulty increases, but they are not shipping them... oh boy, ppl will freak out and travel to Stockholm knocking on KnC's door to get their pre-paid miners I guess.

This implies from my point of view that scenario 1 is the more likely one.
Then I'm curious to see how ppl will behave when difficulty increases during September, I'd not be surprised if many buyers will cancel orders.

Please point out in case I'm wrong or missing sth.

There is yet another possible scenario...  They start shipping a week or two before the end of September, like you say...15th or thereabouts. (My order says "Shipping on second day of production", not "Shipping on shipping day 2" With that in mind, (production not stopping because they said not batch shipping either) the next units should flow out in the days immediately following.
Granted, If production was to begin Friday, the 27th, scenario 1 is perfect.
But I'm expecting a sooner "Day 1 of production" as many of us are hoping...
there's no way "Production day", OR "Shipping day 1,2,3,4,5,etc." are going to be separated by weeks imho, which leaves scenario 1 or 3(this one), so I'm thinking/hoping that there will be around 10 days of September that they may ship, just to surprise everybody, or at the very least Monday, the 23rd, for 5 or 6 days of production in Sept. (All speculation, of course)
Someone in the forum earlier said they heard a very specific date...  curious about that.
I'm going to throw a KNC Production day 1 party if I'm even close...   None of my friends will even know what that is, but they'll sure eat the cake & drink the beer! I'm still extremely optimistic in case nobody noticed...