Analysis

[realdos]

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))

Then it should collapse to weekly 20 sma and stay around there for all "silence phase".

So here is it - plan till 2016-2017. As I predicted right after ATH, this will be long and painful decline till 2016...2017.

So after the breakout of current log downtrend, is the scenario in which price hit weekly upper BB and collapse to weekly 20 sma and followed by a long silence phase still valid?

Again, thank you Master Luc for your continuous professional and rational analysis.

[RyNinDaCleM]

My take on the log trend is that the market will have to make an important decision within a few weeks. That will be either the catalyst for the (at least mid term) bull market or the failure and continuation of the bear market. If it can pull away from the down trend then a nice rally should follow. But it is still my opinion that lower lows will be had before ATH's.

I believe I posted a chart in chessnut's thread about the Big B wave idea... Ew technician's also use time as a guide line. In Bitcoin I have observed that it's far from perfect, but very often it is right on, and almost always is within a small margin of error. What I'm getting at is that the time spent all those months of down down down add up to about the expected time spent in the wave A of a 2nd wave of one larger degree.

Take a look here
A wave-II takes 61.8%-161.8% of the time taken in the Wave-I. Trading view tools are a little retarded sometimes. I assure you those numbers are correct. I would even accept a little error, but that bottom is still so far ahead of time. At best, we have completed a smaller wave 4 and could see ATH's before LL's, but I'll see if we can break $400 first.

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

[8up]

My take on the log trend is that the market will have to make an important decision within a few weeks. That will be either the catalyst for the (at least mid term) bull market or the failure and continuation of the bear market. If it can pull away from the down trend then a nice rally should follow. But it is still my opinion that lower lows will be had before ATH's.

I believe I posted a chart in chessnut's thread about the Big B wave idea... Ew technician's also use time as a guide line. In Bitcoin I have observed that it's far from perfect, but very often it is right on, and almost always is within a small margin of error. What I'm getting at is that the time spent all those months of down down down add up to about the expected time spent in the wave A of a 2nd wave of one larger degree.

Take a look here
A wave-II takes 61.8%-161.8% of the time taken in the Wave-I. Trading view tools are a little retarded sometimes. I assure you those numbers are correct. I would even accept a little error, but that bottom is still so far ahead of time. At best, we have completed a smaller wave 4 and could see ATH's before LL's, but I'll see if we can break $400 first.

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

Sounds legit. And because it is unexpected, probability is high it even works out this way. On the other hand. I think bitcoin develops in steps, as it tries to find it's real usage in the world. While I am not seeing $70 on the wall. I could easily see a retest of current values after a mini-bubble to ~$700.

[pinky]

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

Do we really have to see impulse wave? I don't know much about EW, but could we not make something like rounding bottom (slow change of trend and then acceleration as it moves higher).

[hf100]

My take on the log trend is that the market will have to make an important decision within a few weeks. That will be either the catalyst for the (at least mid term) bull market or the failure and continuation of the bear market. If it can pull away from the down trend then a nice rally should follow. But it is still my opinion that lower lows will be had before ATH's.

I believe I posted a chart in chessnut's thread about the Big B wave idea... Ew technician's also use time as a guide line. In Bitcoin I have observed that it's far from perfect, but very often it is right on, and almost always is within a small margin of error. What I'm getting at is that the time spent all those months of down down down add up to about the expected time spent in the wave A of a 2nd wave of one larger degree.

Take a look here
A wave-II takes 61.8%-161.8% of the time taken in the Wave-I. Trading view tools are a little retarded sometimes. I assure you those numbers are correct. I would even accept a little error, but that bottom is still so far ahead of time. At best, we have completed a smaller wave 4 and could see ATH's before LL's, but I'll see if we can break $400 first.

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

Last summer you were one of the few people here prepared to say you didn't think the bottom was in, and that we had to go below the previous ATH and stay there for some time. Some people called you a troll for it but you were right. Thanks for sharing your view of today's situation.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I agree with luc that what we have seen is a completed zigzag from the top to 152, and that things are looking pretty bullish lately, but I disagree that what we have off the bottom is impulsive without ignoring waves that are there or assuming waves that aren't there. So I'm still for the large B wave if we see a decent rally here.

Do we really have to see impulse wave? I don't know much about EW, but could we not make something like rounding bottom (slow change of trend and then acceleration as it moves higher).

Absolutely we could see such a formation, but it would eventually turn into multiple nested waves which has as far as I see, cannot happen since the two moves off the bottom (314 and 304) are both 3 wavers invalidating a long term bullish move.

The idea of this beginning up as a 5th instead of the larger degree 3 that luc proposed, has a complete alternate count that has us done in the bear market as a 4th but it is a bit forced, imo, though it is plausible.

[lyth0s]

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

[SmoothCurves]

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.

[lyth0s]

On breakout of current log downtrend I will consider this count to be activated (historical III running). You all know what means elliott wave number 3...

That would put the top of Wave III at around $120k. I could live with that.

Can you please explain how you got that number? I'm new to elliot waves but if wave 3 is a 1.618 extension of wave 1 ($1100) wouldn't that put wave 3 at $1941? Or is the wave 3:1 ratio used by percentages or something else that I'm unaware of?

Correct.

(1163/2.22) = 523.8 * 1.618 = 847 * 156 = $132,229

I rounded down some numbers to get 120k.

Could you please explain why you divided the ATH by 2.22? And where did the 156 multiple come from?

[SmoothCurves]

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

[RyNinDaCleM]

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

[vphen]

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

[SmoothCurves]

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.

[StarenseN]

From this 6 months old analyse

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/nOHd1wTW-1-Year-falling-wedge-is-close-to-completion/

[lebing]

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

As said above, self quotes are the best quotes ^^

[Chef Ramsay]

Have we confirmed a successfully breakout ？

Well both the upper log trend line and the SMA 200 have been taken out on the daily chart. Let's see what happens overnight.

We gotta go up now. By such a big margin.

[Afrikoin]

2.22 Wave I bottom.

156 Wave II bottom

Wave-I bottom is $0.05
Wave-II bottom was 1.994

Edit:
Oh, wave-II was around 152 or so... So never mind

Heh yeah, no matter how you slice it, top of Wave III will be absurd. Many people on this sub will be millionaires if they can hold out that long.

how long is 'long'?

[masterluc]

3 (Weekly sma20)
2 (Daily sma200)
1 (Log trendline)

... and lift off, Bitcoin the worlds first digital currency starts to its historical wave three to be in next comming years!

[oda.krell]

Huh. I'm a bit surprised by the bullish sentiment change, not just luc's but by many other posters as well.

Looks to me like we had a very similar set up in June '14 already: DSMA200 broken, weekly close above SMA20, and the then most plausible log downtrend line was decisively broken a few days before. Didn't help in the end, price fell back below the DSMA200, struggled a bit, then broke down entirely.

So, to me it looks rather like we have another real shot at breaking out of the yearly trend, but not that it's a certainty we will do so.

Then again, maybe that's where EW comes in, and I just don't know much about it.

Perhaps those who count just have a strong intuition that June was 'too early', and now is 'about right', so: June '14 and now are very different, even if, from my perspective, the two situations look similar.


P.S. Thanks luc for your continued input. This is probably my favorite thread on the entire forum.