rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Phillis]

lets save the monero talk to the altcoin thread please. I'm here for some bitcoin related TA.

[SlipperySlope]

I'm here for some bitcoin related TA.

Here is the weekly chart from Bitstamp where we are watching the rightmost candle which presently has the technical shape of a hammer. This candle is only 4 days old so it could end up with a different shape. Conventional TA wisdom regarding hammers is that they often indicate a trend reversal when following a significant downtrend, e.g. April 6. The time resolution is not important as candlestick TA is fractal in that sense. On the other hand, a hammer can also occur in the midst of a trend as happened September 29, 2013.

Because the price previously stabilized around $650, that would be a resistance zone if indeed the trend reverses to a rally.

An important aspect of TA is that traders and algorithmic bots look for these patterns and take action. So even if you think TA is unsound, it is an indicator of the possible actions of speculators and their trading bots.

[Its About Sharing]

Slipperyslope - If the volume gets huge by the end of the week (as it is key), then I will believe a reversal is possible. It is a great indicator, though I'm not sure I've seen many on BTC's recent charts. It often seems to engulfing candles, but I'm hopeful here. (edit - I was looking at the green ones, have been 2 red hammers that were at least bottoms, so I stand corrected).

IAS

[creekbore]

The issue seems to be sustainability, the last two hanging man formation have seen a reversal but we always encounter resistance and there just isn't the buying volume to break through and establish a new support level. 

I suspect this is partly to due with hangovers from Gox, Neo et al and partly (maybe) because those trading are working within more professional parameters ie profit-taking is realised at lower levels but more often.  Personally, I think the longer we go without some ludicrous bubble, the better; indeed it would be best if there was never another 'bubble'.

[rpietila]

Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

[Its About Sharing]

Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

There is probably some pent up energy being created, but when I look at the chart it seems we are still just coming out of the last bubble. (Prior moves up came after long sideways action, we are not there yet.)

My greater concern is that it looks like there is going to be a substantial stock market adjustment (DOWN) in the next few months. Many are in agreement. The relevance here is that at this point, a lot of money, perhaps most, in BTC is speculative and I'm afraid that will come back out and we will go down with the markets. But how much is up in the air.

Now, all bets are off if we see another repeat of Cypress somewhere in the world. Then BTC is not only speculative again, but protective.
TBH - I see this delay as great for the overall "common people" economy. It is giving more people more time to get involved at a reasonable price.
It is giving people more time in those 3rd world countries to get in before the next big move up. The world GREATLY needs some wealth redistribution and this is a great way, perhaps the only way these days.

IAS

[BombaUcigasa]

Reversion to the trendline:

Once the bubble comes, it will be the more ferocious, the longer we've had to wait for it.

Price is only the market's gauge of the underlying economy. Bitcoin economy, including also the prospective investors in the pipeline, is now in 2-5 times better shape than in last December. Yet price is halved. Do your math.

Do you also account for half a year of fresh coins added at this price level with lower production costs, or the fact that the price has increased 30-fold in 20 months.
Have you considered the possibility of another "nuclear winter" like the one from 2012 after the first popular bubble?

[rpietila]

Do you also account for half a year of fresh coins added at this price level with lower production costs, or the fact that the price has increased 30-fold in 20 months.
Have you considered the possibility of another "nuclear winter" like the one from 2012 after the first popular bubble?

Shitcoins do not trouble me the least. If gold was prone to be replaced by shit, it would already have happened in 5 millennia.

I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin's next growth spurt delaying by more than a year, unless something catastrophic happens to the world at large (USA going full retard, shutting down Internet, etc.).

- The 2011 bubble saw Bitcoin price increasing 6,400 times in a year. It is understandable that there was a lengthy period of digesting the gains.
- The 2013 bubble saw the price increasing 620 times in 2 years. It is unlikely that the digestion will be as severe.

[frienemy]

- The 2011 bubble saw Bitcoin price increasing 6,400 times in a year. It is understandable that there was a lengthy period of digesting the gains.
- The 2013 bubble saw the price increasing 620 times in 2 years. It is unlikely that the digestion will be as severe.

I see a gloomy pattern...

2011 bubble: price increase of 6,400 times. Timeframe 1 year
2013 bubble: price increase of 620 times. Timeframe 2 years
--> 2017 bubble: price increase of only 60 times. Timeframe long 4 years (because log)

OMG I will only be millionaire by then And for that I shall wait another few years, constantly fearing those 10 to 30% crashes along the way?

YES I WILL

[Skinnkavaj]

rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.

[dEBRUYNE]

rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.

I am not rpietila, but here's a list of 82 exchanges and their volume, you can also see the share of the total volume. So it's very easy to calculate what the total volume was. http://www.coinometrics.com/exchanges?display=%25%20Share&vol=Area&volume=Volume%20(BTC)&stack=Unstacked

This excludes zero-fee exchanges like okcoin and huobi. But it includes the most known exchanges.

[Skinnkavaj]

rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.

I am not rpietila, but here's a list of 82 exchanges and their volume, you can also see the share of the total volume. So it's very easy to calculate what the total volume was. http://www.coinometrics.com/exchanges?display=%25%20Share&vol=Area&volume=Volume%20(BTC)&stack=Unstacked

This excludes zero-fee exchanges like okcoin and huobi. But it includes the most known exchanges.

For some reason the chart on that website doesn't load for me.

[rpietila]

rpietila, do you have any charts for total volume across all exchanges?
A bearish sign I just noticed yesterday, while switching tabs on bitcoinity and checking volume across several exchanges is that the volume is terrible compared to last year.
On some exchanges we are even lower than pre-november bubble.
This might be because volume is more spread out across all exchanges and this is what I would like to know if that's the case.

From Bitcoincharts.com, you can download all the data you need for making the comparison volume charts. I have some for my own use, and they confirm that volume is quite low now. I would attribute some of it to the increased OTC trading. Also people who hold BTC are satisfied with their holdings, the reason to shuffle them would come with increased prices but not before.

[seleme]

Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.

Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.

[MoreFun]

Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.

Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.

Saturdays ar mostly slow and low volume. Anyhow stamp has 8k+ 24h volume which is not so low, weeks ago there were days with 1-2k volume. Not sure about Chinese exchanges.

[seleme]

Today is one of the lowest, if not lowest volume I've seen since I bought my first bitcoins.

Less than 10k across Huobi, Stamp, Finex and BTC-e in last 6 hours.

Saturdays ar mostly slow and low volume. Anyhow stamp has 8k+ 24h volume which is not so low, weeks ago there were days with 1-2k volume. Not sure about Chinese exchanges.

Important part is that we went down like 20$ on that volume. If we were flat that wouldn't be strange.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is the two year chart of the adjusted number of bitcoin transactions from Blockchain.info. Note that in the past few days the smoothed log graph has turned downwards. The seven day moving average removes most of the noise caused by day-of-week variation, but looking back over the history of the chart it appears there are noisy movements remaining. So I will be closely watching this latest trend of the transaction quantity to see whether it reverses sharply over the next week to move higher, or whether it continues downwards.

I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.

[CEG5952]

The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)

Thoughts?

[Its About Sharing]

Here is the two year chart of the adjusted number of bitcoin transactions from Blockchain.info. Note that in the past few days the smoothed log graph has turned downwards. The seven day moving average removes most of the noise caused by day-of-week variation, but looking back over the history of the chart it appears there are noisy movements remaining. So I will be closely watching this latest trend of the transaction quantity to see whether it reverses sharply over the next week to move higher, or whether it continues downwards.

I believe that there is currently a divergence in the relationship between bitcoin price and number of transactions. The transaction quantity is now above March 2014 levels but the price is not. Let's see how this situation resolves.

That is an interesting divergence to look into. Have you looked at how accurate it has been historically? An overlay maybe? I understand it might not be an accurate relationship to price, but it probably still would average out to something somewhat leading. Outside of the usual movement of coins, it would be interesting to know (albeit it is probably difficult to ascertain), how transaction volume with goods, services, etc. is related to price. There have been good arguments put forth that show an increase in BTC usage can drop the price. But at the same time, I can imagine that an increase in usage would of course mean more people are finding out about BTC and then putting a few aside.

Thanks for bringing the chart up,
IAS

[aminorex]

The above chart looks to me like the uptrend in # of transactions is rounding off and turning downwards. (Not just the August top, but all of 2014)

Thoughts?

I think this chart is a better proxy for usage:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

I also think it's likely to decline into October, but it is well within variance parameters to maintain exponential growth into the indefinite future.

At some point you can probably fit a logistic or a Fisk c.d.f. to it.  So far, the s/n ratio is too low to make a useful fit, and the exponential trend is dominant.