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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2008939 times)
sidhujag
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February 09, 2015, 04:32:28 AM
 #21101

Im gonna give that to a coworker who is a conspiracy theorist yet pessimistic about bitcoin.. He always asks who controls bitcoin and never satsified as a fork can cause a large loss to his investment.. Thus labels it a ponzi scheme aimed at luring in small fish

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Melbustus
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February 09, 2015, 06:06:16 AM
 #21102


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Coinbase, BitStamp, and Blockchain.info upgrade. These nodes provide a lot of the infrastructure for Bitcoin, so if they do not upgrade, Bitcoin New will be a lot less useful. However, these nodes are in it for profit, so they will tend to go where the money is. They cannot necessarily afford to wield the influence they might have at the risk of short-term losses.

He's totally wrong about that. All three of those are startup companies that exist and are funded in order to achieve a large future payoff, generally at the explicit cost of short term losses. They will do what they feel provides the best long term payoff. Avoiding short term losses is relatively to entirely unimportant to them.

That still may not be the choice of fork that he or you or I would prefer however.



right.  small start ups can also be investors.  

altho generally, i think he's right.  the bigger they get, the more they are beholden to other shorter term investors in the company, to payrolls, to fixed and variable expenses, and then to IPO's and being public.  

The recent Coinbase funding round was at a valuation of $400 million. There is likely at least a factor of 10 from that to where they want to be before cashing out. (Of course if things go poorly they may cash out lower or not at all.) The other companies on his list are probably valued lower.

They won't sacrifice, or even jeopardize, the longer term potential for a level of meaningful success that would make a difference to a VC portfolio to protect the tiny revenues they are getting now from transaction fees. (Again, unless they give up on the longer term potential and are looking to recover something.) Although they haven't disclosed numbers, I doubt the current transaction fees come close to supporting even the current valuation. In a sense there is nothing in way of current revenues to protect.

Long shot VC backing of companies like Coinbase is a sort of leveraged play on BTC itself. They can't really succeed without BTC going much higher than 4 billion USD total cap. So I think he's wrong in considering them distinct from investors. His whole entrepreneurs vs. investors thread makes this mistake.


+1


And more generally, I think a lot of people make a misjudgment in assuming that actors in the bitcoin ecosystem will behave with only very short-term focus. Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) is particularly bad about taking these absurdly narrow views and spitting out blog posts full of "analysis". Unfortunately his analysis is often not particularly useful because his assumptions are broken.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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Patel
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February 09, 2015, 06:29:36 AM
 #21103


He is biased on this statement: "Therefore, Bitcoin is not likely to be upgraded in ways which make it easier to regulate because that would decrease the value of the coins. Bitcoin might be upgraded in ways that make it more anonymous because a more anonymous coin would likely be more valuable."

Some would argue that regulation would increase value of coins, and anonymity would decrease value of coins. If this happened, the state would actually try to crush Bitcoin, and institutional money would be rushing to get out.
brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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February 09, 2015, 06:49:09 AM
 #21104

The HSBC story is fantastic  Cheesy Shows once again double standard toward Bitcoins from regulators not even able to police traditional institutions

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/08/hsbc-files-expose-swiss-bank-clients-dodge-taxes-hide-millions

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
sidhujag
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February 09, 2015, 07:04:21 AM
 #21105


He is biased on this statement: "Therefore, Bitcoin is not likely to be upgraded in ways which make it easier to regulate because that would decrease the value of the coins. Bitcoin might be upgraded in ways that make it more anonymous because a more anonymous coin would likely be more valuable."

Some would argue that regulation would increase value of coins, and anonymity would decrease value of coins. If this happened, the state would actually try to crush Bitcoin, and institutional money would be rushing to get out.
Either way it needs regulation or the state can say we will impose harsh penalty to anyone accepting bitcoin blah blah.. Making it underground. With proper regulation incentives are there for politicians to get in now.. Buy before laws change and make money.. Its greed again and wont change. The other side is once regulated we play by their rules again and they may change just like that so we gave up annonymity for nothing...

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hdbuck
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February 09, 2015, 07:21:05 AM
 #21106

5 Reasons To Buy Gold & Silver In 2015: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/guest-post-5-reasons-buy-gold-silver-2015



this chart oddly reminds me Bitcoin's diff+price chart  Lips sealed
sickpig
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February 09, 2015, 08:20:38 AM
 #21107

He made a technical error in the article; a low hashrate of a fork wouldn't extend the time between blocks. It only would make them less secure.

really? I would had thought it would be the case at least until the next diff re-target, no?

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
600watt
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February 09, 2015, 09:11:49 AM
 #21108

5 Reasons To Buy Gold & Silver In 2015: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/guest-post-5-reasons-buy-gold-silver-2015



this chart oddly reminds me Bitcoin's diff+price chart  Lips sealed


lol, gold looks like btc in 2013...   did china ban gold ?   Cheesy
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February 09, 2015, 11:10:06 AM
 #21109



"between 'lives' we all have a great laugh about the parts we have performed in the 'play', and look forward to and have great fun preparing the next chapters to act out."
lunarboy
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February 09, 2015, 01:39:29 PM
 #21110

Europe really is hotting up these days. Greece could end up being the new Lehman Brothers.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31300992

Quote
Greek bank shares fall sharply as fears over exit grow

one word ...  Contagion
justusranvier
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February 09, 2015, 01:44:42 PM
 #21111

Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) is particularly bad about taking these absurdly narrow views and spitting out blog posts full of "analysis".
You misspelled "concern trolling".
justusranvier
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February 09, 2015, 02:07:47 PM
 #21112

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/
HeliKopterBen
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February 09, 2015, 03:38:30 PM
 #21113

Im gonna give that to a coworker who is a conspiracy theorist yet pessimistic about bitcoin.. He always asks who controls bitcoin and never satsified as a fork can cause a large loss to his investment.. Thus labels it a ponzi scheme aimed at luring in small fish

He will panic-buy at much higher prices.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
cbeast
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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February 09, 2015, 04:41:07 PM
 #21114


Thanks for writing that. It finally clears up what you've been talking about. Just curious, what are your thoughts about how price discovery will deal with Bitcoin price fluctuation?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
cypherdoc
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February 09, 2015, 04:48:32 PM
 #21115

He made a technical error in the article; a low hashrate of a fork wouldn't extend the time between blocks. It only would make them less secure.

really? I would had thought it would be the case at least until the next diff re-target, no?

well, a hard fork new chain gets started with x hashing rate.  blocks are 10 min apart, just like they were with Bitcoin back in 2009.  any increases in hashing rate from miner adoption that decreases the frequency below 10 min is automatically adjusted every 2 wks with difficulty.  we've never had a problem with block intervals going to days or weeks in Bitcoin so why should it happen with a new chain, given it is a hard fork with minimal protocol changes?
justusranvier
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February 09, 2015, 04:51:39 PM
 #21116

Thanks for writing that. It finally clears up what you've been talking about. Just curious, what are your thoughts about how price discovery will deal with Bitcoin price fluctuation?
Bitcoin exchange rate fluctuation would be no different than any other factor which will affect the price of various services on a day-to-day basis.

Suppliers of services will not do so very long at a loss, so they'll only accept prices that don't work out to be a loss for them.

That basically means that fees would adjust automatically to exchange rate changes.
justusranvier
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February 09, 2015, 04:54:47 PM
 #21117

well, a hard fork new chain gets started with x hashing rate.  blocks are 10 min apart, just like they were with Bitcoin back in 2009.  any increases in hashing rate from miner adoption that decreases the frequency below 10 min is automatically adjusted every 2 wks with difficulty.  we've never had a problem with block intervals going to days or weeks in Bitcoin so why should it happen with a new chain, given it is a hard fork with minimal protocol changes?
At the point of the fork, the difficulty has already been set based on the entire network's hash rate.

Miners have to choose one fork to mine.

If half of them go one way, and the other half goes to the other fork, then both forks are mining at with difficulty at double the value it should be, so both forks will experience 20 minute block times until the next difficulty adjustment.

If the split is 70/25, then the smaller chain will experience 40 minute block times and the larger chain will get 13 minute block times.
cypherdoc
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February 09, 2015, 04:57:07 PM
 #21118

Thanks for writing that. It finally clears up what you've been talking about. Just curious, what are your thoughts about how price discovery will deal with Bitcoin price fluctuation?
Bitcoin exchange rate fluctuation would be no different than any other factor which will affect the price of various services on a day-to-day basis.

Suppliers of services will not do so very long at a loss, so they'll only accept prices that don't work out to be a loss for them.

That basically means that fees would adjust automatically to exchange rate changes.

People will want to transact with bitcoin, but they will be forbidden by the Bitcoin protocol from doing so.

that quote from your article should be changed, as i know you didn't mean it the way it reads.  you mean "limited by market prices".
bambou
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February 09, 2015, 05:07:29 PM
 #21119

short the shorts: http://www.returnofkings.com/55524/americas-booty-obsession-is-another-symptom-of-social-decline

Non inultus premor
cypherdoc
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February 09, 2015, 05:32:34 PM
 #21120


i like your idea of fees for relay nodes.  i run 5 at my cost for the network.  i'd run more if i were paid.
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