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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1978408 times)
Pruden
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February 09, 2015, 10:38:55 PM
 #21141

Dow rolling again.  -100.

desperately trying to stay up.
Volume was very low, what is your idea of desperation?
The trend is UP!
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February 09, 2015, 10:48:12 PM
 #21142

Im gonna give that to a coworker who is a conspiracy theorist yet pessimistic about bitcoin.. He always asks who controls bitcoin and never satsified as a fork can cause a large loss to his investment.. Thus labels it a ponzi scheme aimed at luring in small fish

He will panic-buy at much higher prices.
His pessismistic attitude is worrying as im sure he thinks hes right just like most of the other engineers i know. I told him last year and i remind him again.. The day you buy is the day i sellout

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Melbustus
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February 09, 2015, 11:28:19 PM
 #21143

If there exist entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)
...then they will succeed, and there's no technological solution we can implement that will stop them.

There is no substitute for growth as a defence against such attackers.

+1

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
smooth
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February 10, 2015, 12:07:28 AM
 #21144

If there exist entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)
...then they will succeed, and there's no technological solution we can implement that will stop them.

There is no substitute for growth as a defence against such attackers.

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.


justusranvier
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February 10, 2015, 12:08:23 AM
 #21145

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.
smooth
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February 10, 2015, 12:16:16 AM
 #21146

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?

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February 10, 2015, 12:44:05 AM
 #21147

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?




Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps. This is partly why Wences Casares, for example, likes to assert that it's much less likely for Bitcoin to have gotten from 0 to where it is today, than for it to get to 1B users from where we are now.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Melbustus
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February 10, 2015, 12:51:54 AM
 #21148

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.


Maybe you and Peter Todd need to get in a room:

"Nifty paper proving what we knew already: w/o a blocksize limit there's no PoW security -> death of Bitcoin." http://t.co/VPsgVkdzj9
(https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/564934207487897601?s=03)

Since his tweet misrepresents what the paper says, it seems to me that he's irrationally entrenched in his opinion.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
smooth
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February 10, 2015, 12:53:52 AM
 #21149

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?



Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps.

Bitcoin is already too large for "entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)" to destroy it?
Melbustus
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February 10, 2015, 01:00:06 AM
 #21150

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?



Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps.

Bitcoin is already too large for "entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)" to destroy it?


No, but it's not easy anymore. And we're not that far off a technical attack being feasible only for highly motivated nation-states....which, as JR points out, seems like a bad choice of attack vector for a motivated sovereign, given the legal and regulatory tools available to them.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
smooth
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February 10, 2015, 01:09:37 AM
 #21151

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?



Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps.

Bitcoin is already too large for "entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)" to destroy it?


No, but it's not easy anymore. And we're not that far off a technical attack being feasible only for highly motivated nation-states....which, as JR points out, seems like a bad choice of attack vector for a motivated sovereign, given the legal and regulatory tools available to them.

Yes legal and regulatory strangulation seem more obvious methods both in theory and practice, but that still doesn't answer the question of how it can ever grow to be too large to attack if adversaries want to end it while it's small enough to successful attack (by whatever method), and have the ability to do so.

JR's arguments seem to lead to the logical conclusion that Bitcoin can't succeed.

solex
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February 10, 2015, 01:33:17 AM
 #21152

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.


Maybe you and Peter Todd need to get in a room:

"Nifty paper proving what we knew already: w/o a blocksize limit there's no PoW security -> death of Bitcoin." http://t.co/VPsgVkdzj9
(https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/564934207487897601?s=03)

Since his tweet misrepresents what the paper says, it seems to me that he's irrationally entrenched in his opinion.

Yep. It is another downside of problems like this remaining unresolved for so long. As the debate continues people do become entrenched when they have have invested so much time and mental energy in their position. They have to admit to themselves that they wasted a lot of effort, if they reverse their view. This is further "cemented" once they go public and stake their reputation on an entrenched position. Peter did this with his video, and Mircea has done it on his blog in front of all his followers.

I have still not seen any reasonable argument why Bitcoin can't be allowed to scale at the rate of the slowest improving computing technology that it uses:  (bandwidth, at present).

rocks
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February 10, 2015, 01:48:18 AM
 #21153

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?




Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps. This is partly why Wences Casares, for example, likes to assert that it's much less likely for Bitcoin to have gotten from 0 to where it is today, than for it to get to 1B users from where we are now.

Haven't heard that before, but completely agree with the sentiment. It is also explains the 2011 bubble, which represented almost a 1000x increase in valuation. The reason was bitcoin crossed from being a small project among a few people (i.e. 0) to being a stand alone entity, this was a massive transition and validation of the platform.
justusranvier
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February 10, 2015, 01:49:02 AM
 #21154

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?


I thought I already answered that.

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2015/02/09/economic-fallacies-and-the-block-size-limit-part-2-price-discovery/

Quote
The good news is that the largest and most dangerous attackers tend to be slow (compared to the pace of software development) to believe that a threat exists, decide on the correct response to neutralize the threat, and effectively execute the response.

The bad news is that Bitcoin’s inherent speed advantage is diluted by people who oppose growth based on the mistaken belief that smallness is an effective defense.
smooth
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February 10, 2015, 02:14:20 AM
 #21155

The good news is that the largest and most dangerous attackers tend to be slow (compared to the pace of software development) to believe that a threat exists, decide on the correct response to neutralize the threat, and effectively execute the response.

So your argument is that Bitcoin can succeed only if its opponents are incompetent or irrational?

Also, what about the attackers who aren't the largest and most dangerous? They're not a threat?

rocks
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February 10, 2015, 02:23:19 AM
 #21156

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.


Maybe you and Peter Todd need to get in a room:

"Nifty paper proving what we knew already: w/o a blocksize limit there's no PoW security -> death of Bitcoin." http://t.co/VPsgVkdzj9
(https://twitter.com/petertoddbtc/status/564934207487897601?s=03)

Since his tweet misrepresents what the paper says, it seems to me that he's irrationally entrenched in his opinion.

Yep. It is another downside of problems like this remaining unresolved for so long. As the debate continues people do become entrenched when they have have invested so much time and mental energy in their position. They have to admit to themselves that they wasted a lot of effort, if they reverse their view. This is further "cemented" once they go public and stake their reputation on an entrenched position. Peter did this with his video, and Mircea has done it on his blog in front of all his followers.

I have still not seen any reasonable argument why Bitcoin can't be allowed to scale at the rate of the slowest improving computing technology that it uses:  (bandwidth, at present).

From the abstract
Quote
We show that any situation with a fixed fee is equivalent to another situation with a limited block size.

And this is why bitcoin only allows free transactions for "priority" transactions (that are small), while everything else requires a fee. This by design ensures that there will be enough fees to support the network even if block sizes are limitless.

It is also why "priority" transactions are determined in BTC units. As the value of the network increases, fewer and fewer transaction qualify for free processing. To send a free transaction requires the equivalent of 1 BTC day (for example 2 BTC for 1/2 day or 0.5 BTC for 2 days). When BTC = $0.01 it was easy to qualify for free transactions and most were, but when BTC = $1000 very few transactions start to qualify. So by design more fees are generated as the value of bitcoin increases.

Satoshi thought this one through, and his design is holding up to the various academic attacks we are seeing.
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February 10, 2015, 02:32:15 AM
 #21157

That's an interesting line of reasoning.

It suggests that Bitcoin can only succeed if no such attackers exist.
Bitcoin can only succeed by growing larger than all attackers.

"Growing" implies a stage of being smaller, at which point such attackers can and will destroy it. How can anything grow if it is already destroyed?




Kinda the unlikely miracle of Bitcoin's current size, perhaps. This is partly why Wences Casares, for example, likes to assert that it's much less likely for Bitcoin to have gotten from 0 to where it is today, than for it to get to 1B users from where we are now.

Haven't heard that before,...

I think he's said it multiple times, but I first him say it in his Bitcoin 2014 presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M


It is also explains the 2011 bubble, which represented almost a 1000x increase in valuation. The reason was bitcoin crossed from being a small project among a few people (i.e. 0) to being a stand alone entity, this was a massive transition and validation of the platform.

Indeed. I think that's a reasonable distinction; the transition from effectively a pet project for a few dozen people, to something that could live on its own...

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
tabnloz
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February 10, 2015, 03:04:32 AM
 #21158

The HSBC story is fantastic  Cheesy Shows once again double standard toward Bitcoins from regulators not even able to police traditional institutions

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/08/hsbc-files-expose-swiss-bank-clients-dodge-taxes-hide-millions


Here's a link to the ZH article giving a list of some of the clients.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/if-your-name-list-prepare-be-audited-or-worse
domob
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February 10, 2015, 07:08:17 AM
 #21159

This math assumes the fork starts just after adjustment.
You're right, I forgot about that. So would it be best to schedule the fork for the middle of a period to minimize this impact, if that can be done? I think the Doge merged mining hardfork was scheduled for a specific block count, not time.
Yes, that can be done.  However, you also can't schedule the fork too close to the end of a retargeting period - otherwise the difficulty won't drop much, even when the hashrate drops significantly.  (That's presumably why you said "middle of a period" - this makes sense.  At least it should be some compromise.)

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February 10, 2015, 01:48:49 PM
 #21160

lol: https://xato.net/passwords/ten-million-passwords/#.VNoKgbCG-RT

torrent: http://www.justhack.co.in/10-million-userpass-combolist.html

Are you on the list? ^^
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