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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2008899 times)
Hunyadi
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February 09, 2015, 05:32:37 PM
 #21121


WTF  Roll Eyes broscience FTW!

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February 09, 2015, 06:16:54 PM
 #21122

The failure of fiat money will be totally self-imposed. It will be the product of pure hubris. But it will dramatically hasten adoption of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s killer app isn’t some clever tipping or multisig feature. It’s killer app is merely the stability of the monetary supply. That doesn’t sound very sexy. But in today’s world, in which paper money has failed so badly in the most basic function of currency, that’s saying a lot.

https://medium.com/@abarisser/central-banks-will-hasten-the-rise-of-bitcoin-fb1973c671e9
rocks
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February 09, 2015, 06:38:10 PM
 #21123

And more generally, I think a lot of people make a misjudgment in assuming that actors in the bitcoin ecosystem will behave with only very short-term focus. Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) is particularly bad about taking these absurdly narrow views and spitting out blog posts full of "analysis". Unfortunately his analysis is often not particularly useful because his assumptions are broken.

Exactly, a particularly absurd attack is that bitcoin will fail due to mining centralization and this centralization will enable miners to act poorly. The reason this is absurd is the more mining becomes centralized the more capital each miner has committed to the project, which means miners will act with more of a long-term mindset as they become larger and commit more capital.

But even if this wasn't the case, the incentive structure of mining means that even IF miners took a short-term only mindset (which is illogical), incentives still encourage them to only mine the longest chain.

To break bitcoin would require a large 51% entity who could operate without economic concerns or constraints, i.e. they have billions in capital to destroy specifically to attack the project, expecting a full loss if successful. Only a government could try to pull this off at this point, the private market will not.
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February 09, 2015, 07:40:43 PM
 #21124

At first it looked like funny trolling and an excuse to make pseudo-sociologic graphs of boobs and butts, but continuing it seems like the author is serious and believes his weird ideas...
NewLiberty
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February 09, 2015, 07:42:31 PM
 #21125

And more generally, I think a lot of people make a misjudgment in assuming that actors in the bitcoin ecosystem will behave with only very short-term focus. Tim Swanson (@ofnumbers) is particularly bad about taking these absurdly narrow views and spitting out blog posts full of "analysis". Unfortunately his analysis is often not particularly useful because his assumptions are broken.

Exactly, a particularly absurd attack is that bitcoin will fail due to mining centralization and this centralization will enable miners to act poorly. The reason this is absurd is the more mining becomes centralized the more capital each miner has committed to the project, which means miners will act with more of a long-term mindset as they become larger and commit more capital.

But even if this wasn't the case, the incentive structure of mining means that even IF miners took a short-term only mindset (which is illogical), incentives still encourage them to only mine the longest chain.

To break bitcoin would require a large 51% entity who could operate without economic concerns or constraints, i.e. they have billions in capital to destroy specifically to attack the project, expecting a full loss if successful. Only a government could try to pull this off at this point, the private market will not.

The underlying assumption here is that (Bitcoin) economics is the only motivator.  If there exist entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources), than this argument fails.  There may well be much cheaper ways to end bitcoin than a persistent 51% attack, (and such a persistent 51% would not be guaranteed to succeed anyway), so it is probably in the 'good enough' category.  It is not in the 'safe' category (though Andreas A. disagrees with me on this).

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coric
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February 09, 2015, 07:46:13 PM
 #21126

well, a hard fork new chain gets started with x hashing rate.  blocks are 10 min apart, just like they were with Bitcoin back in 2009.  any increases in hashing rate from miner adoption that decreases the frequency below 10 min is automatically adjusted every 2 wks with difficulty.  we've never had a problem with block intervals going to days or weeks in Bitcoin so why should it happen with a new chain, given it is a hard fork with minimal protocol changes?
At the point of the fork, the difficulty has already been set based on the entire network's hash rate.

Miners have to choose one fork to mine.

If half of them go one way, and the other half goes to the other fork, then both forks are mining at with difficulty at double the value it should be, so both forks will experience 20 minute block times until the next difficulty adjustment.

If the split is 70/25, then the smaller chain will experience 40 minute block times and the larger chain will get 13 minute block times.
And the 20 minutes are for both forkd for a time of 4 weeks, the 40 minutes for a time of 8 weeks for slowfork.
Add the value crashing, there's enough time to do some real damage, in the worst case to both Gavincoin and Mirceacoin.
cypherdoc
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February 09, 2015, 07:50:21 PM
 #21127

Dow rolling again.  -100.

desperately trying to stay up.
NewLiberty
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February 09, 2015, 07:51:21 PM
 #21128

well, a hard fork new chain gets started with x hashing rate.  blocks are 10 min apart, just like they were with Bitcoin back in 2009.  any increases in hashing rate from miner adoption that decreases the frequency below 10 min is automatically adjusted every 2 wks with difficulty.  we've never had a problem with block intervals going to days or weeks in Bitcoin so why should it happen with a new chain, given it is a hard fork with minimal protocol changes?
At the point of the fork, the difficulty has already been set based on the entire network's hash rate.

Miners have to choose one fork to mine.

If half of them go one way, and the other half goes to the other fork, then both forks are mining at with difficulty at double the value it should be, so both forks will experience 20 minute block times until the next difficulty adjustment.

If the split is 70/25, then the smaller chain will experience 40 minute block times and the larger chain will get 13 minute block times.
And the 20 minutes are for both forkd for a time of 4 weeks, the 40 minutes for a time of 8 weeks for slowfork.
Add the value crashing, there's enough time to do some real damage, in the worst case to both Gavincoin and Mirceacoin.

This math assumes the fork starts just after adjustment.

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coric
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February 09, 2015, 08:01:22 PM
 #21129

This math assumes the fork starts just after adjustment.
You're right, I forgot about that. So would it be best to schedule the fork for the middle of a period to minimize this impact, if that can be done? I think the Doge merged mining hardfork was scheduled for a specific block count, not time.
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February 09, 2015, 08:05:13 PM
 #21130

how much deader can Greece get?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/greek-bank-bonds-stocks-crumble-record-lows
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February 09, 2015, 08:08:30 PM
 #21131

this must be bullish, right?

cypherdoc
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February 09, 2015, 08:26:24 PM
 #21132

i love this chart.  can't get enough of it.  it's a record after all.  down 99.83% from its 2007 high.  how low can it go?  dead, dead, and deader:

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February 09, 2015, 08:42:55 PM
 #21133

Melbustus
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February 09, 2015, 08:51:39 PM
 #21134




Looks like a chart of 99% of alt-coins.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
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February 09, 2015, 08:58:53 PM
 #21135

Bitcoin volatility?  pfffft:

rocks
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February 09, 2015, 09:01:03 PM
 #21136

...
 so it is probably in the 'good enough' category.  It is not in the 'safe' category (though Andreas A. disagrees with me on this).

That is a great way to put it. It also highlights that people's views on bitcoin largely depend upon their risk aversion preferences and/or what they view as risky. Someone who views maintaining a fixed dollar amount as low risk and their primary goal, will likely see negatives to bitcoin since it's not "safe" (i.e. 100% guaranteed), while someone who views the value of a fixed dollar amount as itself being risky, will likely  see value to the project since it is "good enough".
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February 09, 2015, 09:08:04 PM
 #21137

If there exist entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)
...then they will succeed, and there's no technological solution we can implement that will stop them.

There is no substitute for growth as a defence against such attackers.
Pruden
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February 09, 2015, 10:38:55 PM
 #21138

Dow rolling again.  -100.

desperately trying to stay up.
Volume was very low, what is your idea of desperation?
The trend is UP!
sidhujag
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February 09, 2015, 10:48:12 PM
 #21139

Im gonna give that to a coworker who is a conspiracy theorist yet pessimistic about bitcoin.. He always asks who controls bitcoin and never satsified as a fork can cause a large loss to his investment.. Thus labels it a ponzi scheme aimed at luring in small fish

He will panic-buy at much higher prices.
His pessismistic attitude is worrying as im sure he thinks hes right just like most of the other engineers i know. I told him last year and i remind him again.. The day you buy is the day i sellout

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Melbustus
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February 09, 2015, 11:28:19 PM
 #21140

If there exist entities that both care about Bitcoin and want to end it (and have sufficient motivation and resources)
...then they will succeed, and there's no technological solution we can implement that will stop them.

There is no substitute for growth as a defence against such attackers.

+1

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
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