Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[NewLiberty]

Yea I always wonder what is the point to bitcoin difficulty.   Surely its not a self assembled mountain ready for the fresh ascent of miners every day in order to claim a prize.  It must make the protocol more secure right, some kind of offshoot benefit would be good to hear.   Not just we needed to stop it being easy to solve.   I mean if it werent for high diff we could process transactions in 1 minute or less instead maybe though I realise this makes cohesion of the chain harder

AFAIK difficulty is essential to regulate the emission schedule of newly minted coins.

This is precisely true.  (with some liberty taken on the definition of minted)

[brg444]

This gold mining argument still seems a bit silly and perhaps circular to me. We use gold (a rare and difficult-to-mine substance) for the same reason we need Bitcoin mining: to replace fragile trust. If everyone were trustworthy, we could use shiny pebbles instead of gold coins. No resources would be needed to "mine" pebbles, you just pick them up off the ground. Everyone would be trusted not to pick up pebbles he didn't deserve, and only obtain them through trade or in some other socially approved manner (perhaps as a form of "guaranteed minimum income", every person would be allowed to pick up one pebble per day.

+1

The work is the tradeoff for trust.

Justusranvier had a good comment on this in that "useful proof of work is an oxymoron".

Yet, as Peter points it out, this work is not "wasted". The energy is what is required to establish a trustless ledger that replaces the need for a "benevolent and omniscient God"

[cypherdoc]

we're fixing for a big move in the next 24 hours. 

i say UP.

[inca]

and with smartphone penetration increasing quickly to places like Africa, soon that will change too.  i'm the first one i know to have identified M Pesa as a good example of how Bitcoin could quickly make an impact in places like Kenya and we are now seeing that play out.  and it's spreading.  and none of this discussion assumes the ease with which Bitcoin can be used to transact btwn ppl worldwide.  the network effect has caused Bitcoin to gain much greater acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment network as evidenced by all the thousands of merchants accepting it worldwide today. 

the growth and trajetory seems pretty clear.  i think it was a huge warning sign that Bitcoin had the audacity to go up and touch gold parity in fiat terms just last year. 

I made posts similar to this much earlier in the year. First came the internet to the Western world, next comes smartphones everywhere. That future will be here in the next three years! Android handsets are already dirt cheap. All bitcoin has to do is literally stay functional and it will arise dominant. It just need a spark.

[cypherdoc]

and with smartphone penetration increasing quickly to places like Africa, soon that will change too.  i'm the first one i know to have identified M Pesa as a good example of how Bitcoin could quickly make an impact in places like Kenya and we are now seeing that play out.  and it's spreading.  and none of this discussion assumes the ease with which Bitcoin can be used to transact btwn ppl worldwide.  the network effect has caused Bitcoin to gain much greater acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment network as evidenced by all the thousands of merchants accepting it worldwide today.  

the growth and trajetory seems pretty clear.  i think it was a huge warning sign that Bitcoin had the audacity to go up and touch gold parity in fiat terms just last year.  

I made posts similar to this much earlier in the year. First came the internet to the Western world, next comes smartphones everywhere. That future will be here in the next three years! Android handsets are already dirt cheap. All bitcoin has to do is literally stay functional and it will arise dominant. It just need a spark.

the failure of gold to perform its stated function can be no more clear.  it's been failing to enforce Sound Money for over 40 years.  today's Swiss vote shows just how far we've gone over the edge into the hands of a Keynesian reliance.

there's a reason Bitcoin has formed what i think is a bull flag along with a diminution in the McClellan Oscillator, a quieting period so to speak.  we be fixing for a big move.

we need a follow up chart from you on the Bitcoin rich list balances.

[NotLambchop]

... First came the internet to the Western world, next comes smartphones everywhere. That future will be here in the next three years! ...

And people hoarding Bitcoin will be filthy rich, just like everyone who hoarded first-gen smartphones!!1!

[brg444]

Because of this accessibility gold is unlikely to ever be forgotten by the masses

This accessibility is getting increasingly rare though. You don't see people finding "pebbles" of gold laying around anymore.

[brg444]

it's way easier to get Bitcoin than an ounce of gold.  just log into Circle, input CC info and buy instantly.

Agree, one thing I always mention to my friends is that Bitcoin is arguably the most accessible investment asset that exist.

[NewLiberty]

On Counterparty...
I like it, but also recognize that it brings SOME of the problems that side chains bring.  One of these is the increased regulatory attack profile.  The more things Bitcoin does, the more government agencies start to think "oh, we are the authority on everything to do with that".

The introduction of securities, distributed organizations, distributed exchanges, and all of the wonders of the Bitcoin 2.0 suite of things brings in new armies of regulators that will work to enforce rules on anyone who lives in or has assets in their jurisdictions.

It also used a sort of SVP one directional diminishing peg with the Proof of Burn initial distribution.  This was the most ethical distribution method of any of the 2.0 efforts of the time.  Earliest "burners" were rewarded slightly more than later burners, and there was an end block after which burned BTC would yield no XCP.

The Side Chain technologies provide much of the same, but also allow for "unburning" the burned BTC, but the Bitcoin protocol doesn't support this currently.  
Personally my position on SC is pretty nuanced, I'd rather see the experimental changes done on another block chain rather than Bitcoin.  The economic issues are complicated, and some of the risks are insidious (they build over time).  For those, we won't know that we hit a tipping point until afterwards, and I don't see an impending crisis of need for Side Chains manifesting.  We already have Counterparty, and its implementation of turing completeness.  We have some parts of our test bed already, but there are others we don't have.

The benefits of SC are tremendous.  They also pale in comparison to the Bitcoin endgame and provide a distraction from the steady march towards that.  I like the innovation, I would like to see it on the Bitcoin block chain... eventually.  
For now, I'd rather see it as a Dogecoin side chain implementation, or Litecoin side chain implementation or Monero side chain implementation.  I would like to see how the economics play out, or at least have some faster chain running into the problems that Bitcoin may have with it AHEAD of when it would happen with Bitcoin (each of those examples have faster block times, and faster emission schedules).

[inca]

Cypherdoc: you could be right. If so this thread could be referenced in the monetary history books

Edit: One can imagine a future student scratching his head and frowning, "teacher what are all those pages about side chains?".

[brg444]

Also finding gold in developed world, watch this tv series: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Sea_Gold    It is possible to mine gold and just pick it up off the ground right in the USA.  Not easy exactly but its there..

There is an important human & capital investment required to obtain this gold.

This same investment could be put toward mining Bitcoins. "Not easy exactly but its there..."

[Cortex7]

To put things in perspective, fiat has been ~x3 better store of value than Bitcoin over the last year.
You may now return to your delirium.

Nonsense, there are infinite perspectives.

Over the past 24 hours bitcoin has proven a better investment than fiat.

We can both pick any part of the fractal to agree with our own stance.

Fiat is a faith based money, anyone with half a brain knows fiat is not tenable in the long term. It's issuance is controlled by a few families who are FAR richer than us, their wealth wasn't accrued through labor.

You should study some history rather than browsing my little pony sites.

[inca]

Also finding gold in developed world, watch this tv series: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Sea_Gold    It is possible to mine gold and just pick it up off the ground right in the USA.  Not easy exactly but its there..

There is an important human & capital investment required to obtain this gold.

This same investment could be put toward mining Bitcoins. "Not easy exactly but its there..."

The difference is that with bitcoin those mining costs also secure the network allowing it to function as a secure transaction network.

With gold mining you are left with just the gold.

[STT]

Because of this accessibility gold is unlikely to ever be forgotten by the masses

This accessibility is getting increasingly rare though. You don't see people finding "pebbles" of gold laying around anymore.

Im not saying this in absolute terms.   I'm never going to 'find' some gold.   Im just saying it does happen that some easy gold is still out there.   Maybe that keys into why gold has been used in general populations for so long

In alaska its possible to pick up gold, I really dont think its worth moving there but in some places they have some gold under rocks.   Unlikely as that seems, Im going to call that out as a dynamic that there is this 'peasant' factor to gold that even the non elite could acquire it.     In zimbabwe its sometimes possible to dig for it, spend the entire day wrecking your muscles and you might get 30 dollars if lucky.  Not worth it but I think its worth noting
Dollars for contrast, the newest dollars are handed to the richest and largest companies possible such as primary dealers to newly created debt.  While some say gold is useless, this dollar systems seems a less inclusive system, possibly self destructive and debased

what's interesting about your theory is that it's inflationary in thinking.  in essence, what you're saying is that the money supply needs to grow to match the growth in population.  and that the new money added should be "free" as in being able to be picked up off the ground.

I think gold money supply grows slower then world economy and when usa was on gold standard it caused deflation.   It did not constrict growth of the economy but prices fell from this effect

The free part to gold is very minor, I realise the most gold mined is done by giant corporations and feeds into the largest forms of money.   Central banks then take it, store and its never used again (directly).  Lots of irony.   
I wouldnt argue that wealth must be given free or found randomly but fair distribution is a good plus to a working system.   Some possibility of getting some to masses is a big plus

[impulse]

we're fixing for a big move in the next 24 hours. 

i say UP.

What's the indicator you're seeing that's tipping you off?

[Adrian-x]

Yea I always wonder what is the point to bitcoin difficulty.   Surely its not a self assembled mountain ready for the fresh ascent of miners every day in order to claim a prize.  It must make the protocol more secure right, some kind of offshoot benefit would be good to hear.   Not just we needed to stop it being easy to solve.   I mean if it werent for high diff we could process transactions in 1 minute or less instead maybe though I realise this makes cohesion of the chain harder

AFAIK difficulty is essential to regulate the emission schedule of newly minted coins.

This is precisely true.  (with some liberty taken on the definition of minted)

It also protects the ledger, if ever say the internet were to fail for a short duration or mining nodes where to become disconnected difficulty would prevent the chain growing too quickly and alow time for a real world fix. The economic majority would still have the longest chain,  but for eg. if 25% of mining power represented the majority the next difficulty could be delayed for up to 8 weeks, allowing other nodes to reconnect before the retargeting

[brg444]

Because of this accessibility gold is unlikely to ever be forgotten by the masses

This accessibility is getting increasingly rare though. You don't see people finding "pebbles" of gold laying around anymore.

Im not saying this in absolute terms.   I'm never going to 'find' some gold.   Im just saying it does happen that some easy gold is still out there.   Maybe that keys into why gold has been used in general populations for so long

In alaska its possible to pick up gold, I really dont think its worth moving there but in some places they have some gold under rocks.   Unlikely as that seems, Im going to call that out as a dynamic that there is this 'peasant' factor to gold that even the non elite could acquire it.     In zimbabwe its sometimes possible to dig for it, spend the entire day wrecking your muscles and you might get 30 dollars if lucky.  Not worth it but I think its worth noting
Dollars for contrast, the newest dollars are handed to the richest and largest companies possible such as primary dealers to newly created debt.  While some say gold is useless, this dollar systems seems a less inclusive system, possibly self destructive and debased

what's interesting about your theory is that it's inflationary in thinking.  in essence, what you're saying is that the money supply needs to grow to match the growth in population.  and that the new money added should be "free" as in being able to be picked up off the ground.

I think gold money supply grows slower then world economy and when usa was on gold standard it caused deflation.   It did not constrict growth of the economy but prices fell from this effect

The free part to gold is very minor, I realise the most gold mined is done by giant corporations and feeds into the largest forms of money.   Central banks then take it, store and its never used again (directly).  Lots of irony.   
I wouldnt argue that wealth must be given free or found randomly but fair distribution is a good plus to a working system.   Some possibility of getting some to masses is a big plus

this "peasant" factor is effectively luck.

luck is not an ideal distribution model as far as I'm concerned.

of course no one is arguing that fiat is a better model but it seems to me the accessibility of Bitcoin, considering its digital form, defeats the "luck" factor that may favors some.  

[cypherdoc]

I realise the most gold mined is done by giant corporations and feeds into the largest forms of money.   Central banks then take it, store and its never used again (directly).  Lots of irony.   
I wouldnt argue that wealth must be given free or found randomly but fair distribution is a good plus to a working system.   Some possibility of getting some to masses is a big plus

again, perspectives are different.

CB's hold huge stores of gold in vaults.  masses can't get at any of that.

there's still 8M BTC's to be made.  get some while you can.

[justusranvier]

Nonsense, there are infinite perspectives.

Over the past 24 hours bitcoin has proven a better investment than fiat.

We can both pick any part of the fractal to agree with our own stance.

Fiat is a faith based money, anyone with half a brain knows fiat is not tenable in the long term. It's issuance is controlled by a few families who are FAR richer than us, their wealth wasn't accrued through labor.

You should study some history rather than browsing my little pony sites.

Over the past year, holding Bitcoin has provided a 0% risk of being confiscated via negative interest rates.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-29/financial-terrorists-road-krugman-and-rogoff-peddling-toxic-advice

The increase in purchasing power of fiat relative to Bitcoin over the last year has correspond with an increased amount of risk.

Whether or not that makes Bitcoin or fiat a "better" investment depends on one's preferences.

[Adrian-x]

I realise the most gold mined is done by giant corporations and feeds into the largest forms of money.   Central banks then take it, store and its never used again (directly).  Lots of irony.   
I wouldnt argue that wealth must be given free or found randomly but fair distribution is a good plus to a working system.   Some possibility of getting some to masses is a big plus

again, perspectives are different.

CB's hold huge stores of gold in vaults.  masses can't get at any of that.

there's still 8M BTC's to be made.  get some while you can.

They were very easy to find just 3 years ago, you just had to look and you could find about 1 BTC a day you just had to have basic computer skills and a couple of old computers the driving factor was the inclination to look. Now it's a lot harder but people are still almost giving them away.

  Get some while you can.