stop spamming bad charts. this has zero explanatory power. it's literally just a line on a chart and the words SELL. this is bad TA.

good post. but price still needs to correct. that's all im sayin.

you wouldn't bother me so much if you knew a cow's lick about technical analysis and the discussions we have about it were actually constructive.

bearish perspectives are important. i was wrong in my predictions. i can handle that. can you handle that?

thanks for projecting motives. i really appreciate the fair and open discussion. when did you lose so much respect for me that you can't even take a single one of my points seriously?

but anyway,

say i did exactly what you said. say i'm cherry-picking. JUST SAY --

you still need to account for it. every scale is valid and price movement patterns appear on every scale. the fact that we haven't seen a weekly-sized correction in 9 consecutive weeks is a big deal. and if you don't think it is, you don't know enough about markets. screw that, you don't know enough about historical bitcoin price data. let me put this into perspective. the only time ever that there have been 9 or more consecutive green weekly candles was during the run-up to the pirate bubble. this is not 'normal', and it's not necessarily bearish, but you didn't even respond to the damn point.

also, i'm pretty damn close to ignoring you, which would make you the first person to ever have that honor. you side-step every single point i make in every single thread, all the while treating me like im the most worthless poster on this forum. that's not discussion, and you need to step off.

edit:

btw, this is the problem:


"right" and "what i already believe" are not always equivalent. watch out for that.

so 9 consecutive weekly green candles (>2 months) is perfectly normal and sustainable?

emphasis mine.

this statement may not be true. that is all i'm trying to say.

if you disagree with my assumptions, then don't bother with the conclusion. it needn't follow. but don't get butthurt just because you don't think TA is worth anything. many people here do and are interested in the various projections of that assumption.

the onus is on the claimant.

the onus is on nobody at all if i state it as an assumption.

i'm defending the integrity of the forum.

please. it doesn't necessarily. but saying the opposite just as surely is just as bad.

do you have a peer-reviewed paper proving the absence of time-dependent autocorrelations in price data?

its been going on for over a week now, at least. but we're not seeing unsustainable growth, just the slow, grinding, 2% daily for the past month.

that's worrying

i'm hoping that you're being sarcastic, because if you can't tell that this is a caricature of analysis, then you're ill-equipped to judge actual technicals, as you have repeatedly.

some idiot was arguing this in the freeroll chat just last night, actually.

the conclusion still holds that when new 'exponential highs' are reached, they will bring with them instability.

did you even read the words underneath?

this is of course assuming that past data predicts future results.

thanks for the backup, and you too, oak.

although i was pretty pretentious in that thread


and i see what you did there hah

+2

way too subjective. and then i take abuse about how TA is voodoo when i'm sticking to empirical methods

so we've broken the all-time-high.

what now?

how many expected a bubble top?

the momentum of this rally is shot.

if nothing happens (flat prices), what will you do?

if price drops 10%, will you sell? 205? 30%? 50%?

our news-based, rapid-adoption rally is deflating.

i expect if we fail to maintain the (approximately) 2% daily average growth for the month of February for the rest of this week, we will correct with high volatility. if we exceed it, we will bubble up.

-===-



-===-

the blue 'volatility' line superficially suggests that the bursting of the bubble is imminent, but the slight correction after the peak in the Febuary structure fails in comparison with the size of the retrace in the June structure. we could just be approaching the support for the eventual bubble top.

whether that support has been discovered by price already or if it is currently overbought, however, is not known.

this leads to the conclusion that either:

-the panic buying starts now.
or
-we will enter a downtrend with high volatility

interestingly enough, this coincides with a hypothesis that DREE12 had earlier posited based on his analysis of "bitcoin's top days" data:


science is when you can derive the same conclusion from different means

anyway, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

+1 for the good chart. very good analysis there. i think it may be time to let this thread die, finally.

the present rally is reflecting an increasing demand all over, not just china. the chinese market is but a part and could just as easily drive a sell-off if the 'big player' starts to see prices drop on other exchanges.

in other words, increasing demand is obvious. why else should the price increase 600% in 12 months? this says nothing about whether or not we're at the market equilibrium or are overbought or oversold. this may even be a bubble symptom -- is this 'smart money' or panic buying? how does the saying go? when your mom starts trading with leverage, it's time to get out.

sorry for the bearish sentiment, just trying to provide another perspective.

your response is ignoring entirely the context of my post.

first, channels are not definitive. it 'tested' the support at $27, but recovered quickly, unlike his time around.

second, i'm not saying that there won't be an upside breakout of this particular triangle consolidation. no one can predict price movements with 100% accuracy.

now, let's look at the context:


the indicators are still saying reversal territory. you can follow along in my analysis thread here. i actually predicted the first testing of the support i outlined above in that very thread, and the 'deep bull trend' which has been going on since $14 is clearly losing steam. i was pointing out to humanitee that indicators are important, and helped predict the weakening of the trend, which leaves it vulnerable to the coming correction of this large price movement.

in other words, he claimed all is well in the rally, so my indicators are worthless. i countered with a chart demonstrating how the price momentum is falling off in the short-term. if in the mid-term (uninterrupted rally from $14 to $30) we are aching for a correction, then when price falters in the short-term it is a significant risk.

so your channel is better than my channel? these lines are arbitrary [read: not scale-invariant]. my chart simply shows that short-term momentum is sagging and we are now consolidating.

edit: also, look closer, it's actually a log chart. you really know what you're doing.