i know it's against  todays experience.. but .. ..     to me looks like bullish. 

Thanks for this lesson on TA Arepo. I will consider donating some Bitcoins to you in the future, maybe give back a slice of my earnings.

You said we would break upwards soon. Can you estimate how high we're going to go? Or is that just off limits right now?

for reasons of transparency and accountability, i want to make the price report which i opened this thread with publicly available, as the projections and analysis it contains have expired some time ago. for anyone who wasn't involved and is curious to see its contents, i've uploaded it in pdf format for free download*: Arepo's Detailed Price Analysis and Report [22 April 2013]

i just want to thank everyone who was involved again for supporting me in this project, and if i informed your profit, consider making a small donation to bitcoincharts, clarkmoody, and bitcoinity, as these are all services which i leverage intensely in my analysis.

*please know that this is my own work and i do not permit profiteering off of it, only free dissemination and duplication.

how to download this w/o having to sign up?

I can't figure out how to download that without getting a warning about malicious downloads.  If you email it to the address in my profile I'd be happy to throw it up somewhere without needing to figure out which download link is legit and which is an ad trying to get me to download malware.

fractal analysis

Here's the thing - I really like bitcoin.  Every time I actually use the system, I'm instantly reminded of why I thought this thing was so cool in the first place.  In a way, I've become a victim of my own trolling, just as some of you have suggested.  Here's my story.

I found out about bitcoin in late February/early March 2011.  A few weeks after investigating the idea I decided to start mining.  My decision to mine instead of buy outright was motivated by the fact that I was in the market for a new gaming PC anyway, and so mining was a sort of hedge against the market working against me.  I turned my machine off a few months after the 2011 crash.  I also bought a fair number of bitcoins before May 2011.

I was enthusiastic about bitcoin and new to markets and trading.  The 2011 crash was depressing and it changed me.  This, despite that I was lucky to more than double the number of bitcoins I mined and bought before the crash.  The project began to look like the sort of thing that was being torn apart inside an out.  I became a vicious troll, because, in a perverse way, I wanted to help what seemed like the project's inevitable end.

At some point my awful trollishness became too much and I issued an apology for my tone, but not my content.  I trolled on, just with less vitriol.  As the project recovered I began to fight with myself.  My trollish character had sort of developed a mind of its own, even as I began to appreciate bitcoin's innovation and value again.  I developed a sense of obligation to the community to post as Proudhon The Toll because of a community expectation and, in a way, to balance out over-zealousness with the same thing in the other direction.

When I switched gears and began posting bullishly not long after this most recent crash I was playing to the joke that I had become a sort of contrary indicator.  "Playing" the character of a more even-headed optimist made me realize that, well, that's not really a character, because I am actually optimistic about bitcoin, even if cautiously.

This is sort of a good-bye to the speculation forum, though I might stick around and respond here for a little while.  I intend to spend more time discussing bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, in political/economic/and philosophical contexts, and so you'll find me posting on bitcointalk.org and other places in areas more suitable for those sorts of discussions.  It's been extremely educational, depressing, exciting, frustrating, and fun around here.  I think I've ultimately learned what I needed to learn from the speculation forum - I'm not a bitcoin trader, I'm an investor and a user.  And yes, my paper wallets are safe and sound.

Do you understand that it's impossible for everyone to win?

Speculation of bitcoins is just a way for people to steal from each other...  there will always be losers and winners, it is not much different from gambling

people put their money together and whoever exchanges his bitcoins at the right time will make a profit (and someone will have to take the equal loss)

whereas exchanges like mt.gox will continue to make profit either way

I know this is very basic but after reading this forum I am not sure if everyone understand this

so it's impossible for everyone to benefit, my guess is that numbers are close to 25-30% of people stealing from the rest (or making profit) similar to Forex

Ready !  
That's probably a really bad sign ! Capitualtion ... what the heck ... I was just cmpletely wrong ...

BTW, what are you basing this latest prediction on ?

it's hard to say, but some fractal analysis suggests that we're going to see a quick rise to about the last high ($165), a sudden correction, and then consolidation in that range for at least the short-term.

Which way to break, up or down? 



I'm saying up 

100% agree. With one caveat however, which is the degree: this latest bubble ended a move that's one degree larger than the 2011 bubble, so the subsequent decline should be long and drawn out, but ultimately much deeper. Be prepared for a lot of false rallies that last weeks and weeks, followed by steep drops. We're in one of the largest rallies now, but it should be constrained by the ATH and ultimately lead to a continuation of the bear market.

Well, by text book, confirmation of a higher (B) should be at $167, confirming a higher high.

I get biased for an up move since the correction after the $166 top was a 3 wave formation with a descending triangle that broke up. Though i thought the triangle should have broken down and there should have been another wave down for then a wave II formation to take place (which was my bias).

The breaking up of the triangle makes me change perspective and eliminate the possibility of a 5 wave down for now (only to take place after another move up).

The breaking up of the triangle is the first hint of another leg of (B), but that is confirmed once we go above $167. Right after $167 price should accelerate and struck the $180 (61% fibo retrace) or maybe around $200 which should be the 76% fibo retracement.

They were incomplete. If you don't know that after bearish wave C there is always bullish bounce (at least bounce) - its your problem.

All going according to plan.

I didn't mistaken That daily triangle has been drawn on 3rd April in this thread.

However I thought 1 wave will go deeper.

Yeah, breaking up. It may start to draw daily triangle

A 3wave down correction confirms that there still up movement left for the (B). (C) Will be confirmed when we get 5waves down and 3 up.

Good call Arepo 

OK, triangle broke up...

That leaves us with another possibility, we are still in (B)

If this is I of (C) then this is a descending triangle 4 of I of (C), which will make it to a II of (C) that will get to $150 or something like that (61% fibo retrace from $166 as of now. Would be lower, the lower I goes).

What every bull seems to want is for the price to go to $150 without completing the primery trend rules that is 5 waves in favor of trend and 3 contrary of trend.

If we had a bullish market until $266, then right now we are on primary down... doesnt matter how deflationary and how high bitcoin will go, it definetly is in a downtrend for now. And if that is the case then there should be 5 waves down now, we only have 4 since the $166 top of (B). if we have 5 waves down to $100 and then retrace to $150 then have another 5 waves down to maybe $80 or $60, then have another wave up to $120 then another wave to $32 then we have a text book complete correction and then we can go for the $3million or whatever price you think bitcoin should have.

Do you have reason to believe such self-similarity should exist and what it would look like?