Martin Armstrong Discussion

[etoimene]

Thank for quick reply.

I posted a link to a document from
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/
Models & Methodologies Second Edition (recommended)


Can you be more specific with a text quote?

I checked https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/
and I don't see how is reversal election implying high or low.

[Strike Eagle 26]

Thank for quick reply.

I posted a link to a document from
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/
Models & Methodologies Second Edition (recommended)


Can you be more specific with a text quote?

I checked https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/
and I don't see how is reversal election implying high or low.

Its right at the end...

"The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

in the Models & Methodologies Second Edition (recommended) pdf its on page 28. "The election of a reversal normally indicated that the expected high or low that should
unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time (i.e. daily, weekly,
monthly, or quarterly).

[etoimene]

Thank you! Completely missed that.

[Thekees]

Thank for quick reply.

I posted a link to a document from
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/
Models & Methodologies Second Edition (recommended)


Can you be more specific with a text quote?

I checked https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/
and I don't see how is reversal election implying high or low.

Its right at the end...

"The election of a Reversal normally indicates that the expected high or low that should unfold could take place in as short a time span as 1 to 3 units of time, be it daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. Therefore, a low might develop the very next day following the election of a Daily Bearish Reversal or within the next few days. The same is true for all price activity levels."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/system/

Take the 1 to 3 time units with a grain of salt. Sometimes there are huge gaps on the daily level and price will get hung up on the technical levels. As an example Oil elected a bullish on 57.45 on March 13th and it diden´t reach the next reversal at 61.29 until April 1st, so 13 time units away.

[etoimene]

I have seen this 1 to 3 time units in arrays clarification somewhere.
Something like that the actual high/low can be up to 3 time units from a turning point.
Simply missed this for reversals.

[whizzledog]

@ etoimene

Some Reversal "Prices" appear again. F.e. a Weekly Bullish at 1200 is elected, than the price fell down the next week and than socrates can use the same Reversal at 1200. (because no major High has breached) It shows with a little number on it on the dashboard....the number counts how often the reversal is elected...i wonder if there is more to it...

[etoimene]

..the number counts how often the reversal is elected...

I understood it marks weather it is double, triple .. reversal. It does not count number of elections but same value reversal can be generated from multiple events.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/understanding-the-double-reversals/
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ModelsMethodologies.SecondEdition.pdf - page 27

Also, if you go with a mouse on that number near reversal you get some explanation.

[whizzledog]

This is the explanation....

This is a reveral of significance because the number was generated 3 times from different price action events. Reverals which appear more than once are significant as they signal important price barriers that when breached indicate a change of trend is in place.

This is f.e. on the Monthly Level of Gold….The double/ tripple  Reversals are to rare….

[Strike Eagle 26]

MA_Talk You claim to have been following Armstrong for decades yet have misunderstood even what a panic cycle is please explain to me again since you are such an expert?
and also what else do you have on the charlatan that is Armstrong you must have exposed him I recall you had many points about how you had exposed Armstrong as a charlatan please put forth your views? even though you have already stated you stopped following Armstrong since 2015

I can't remember exactly when I stopped following Armstrong.  2015 was just the approximate time.  Before that however, I read every single article available from him.

Since you have also read his stuffs since 1995, could I check with you on my following understanding of Armstrong's stuffs, and see if they are the correct understanding:

1. Nothing in the market or even in the world is really random.  What has been set in motion decades ago, cannot be changed.  Armstrong's Socrates observe all global events and capital flow (unlike the fishbowl economists), and the forecast/predictions around the world are obviously interlinked and inter-related.

2. The number 26 is from 52/2, and 52 is from 8.6x6=51.2, and 224 is from 8.6x26=223.6.


I never claim that I'm an expert on Armstrong.  I just quote Armstrong, because I don't want to make the stuffs up.  You can explain what you think Armstrong means by Panic cycle, but my understanding is that panic cycle will be a period with high volatility, and could be either up or down, and almost certainly exceeds either the highest or the lowest point achieved in the previous period (day/week/month/year).  I'm sure Armstrong may have explained that somewhere, but since he writes so much, very often it's hard to find something unless some notes were taken.


It's getting too late at night.  I will re-post those previous points that I have made when I find time.  I also want to dig out the URL links, which will take quite some time and research.  I do NOT want to make stuffs up, and talk about Armstrong just based on my personal memory.

" I'm sure Armstrong may have explained that somewhere, but since he writes so much, very often it's hard to find something unless some notes were taken."

 That’s not true all you have to  do is type into google: "panic cycle" Armstrong Economics
You can also go to his website and type in the search bar. "panic cycle" and you be able to read just about everything he ever said about it.


In summary
70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

"The Panic Cycle can also be a big move in one direction, but they are often outside reversals meaning that they can exceed the previous high and then penetrate the previous low"

 So for example The month of February 2019 was a panic cycle on the Dow since it was a big move in one direction. I recall many posts of you saying the month of Feb was not a panic cycle…


"The major Cycle of Political Change appears to be the duration of 224 years In which there are 26 periods of 8.615 years."
Source(http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/03/how-all-systems-can-collapse-overnight-709.pdf)

 Just not so sure about your calculation on  the 26 year frequency other than it is 8.6 x 3 = 25.8

[fanita]

I think what Armstrong doesn't say is that financial losses will increase after this October and that will encourage more mandate to Corbyn. For this reason, of course, Corbyn will make concessions to allow it to unite its strength, but then the economy will play its true purpose. However it is fear, we will see how all this happened and the extent to which this transmission is really severe. We all wait to see if it's useless or not.

[Thekees]

Today was another directional change on the USDCAD where the direction was given. An open above 1.33240 would mean a rally and it opened 1.33413 on my charts and it is now at 1.33832 so a decent move so far. A close above  1.33730 will mean a rally till the next turning point which seems to be Monday or Tuesday since they have the same aggregate bar high, they also have directional changes.

This is now 7/7 correct so far. You like being an active trader just check socrates every morning and place the trade according to the open (unless it is to close and your data differs from Socrates).

I wonder where these numbers come from. They don´t seem to be reversals nor are they the closing price of the day before, or pivot points, no idea.

Anyway 7/7 could still be just a streak, lets see how many in a row are correct. If anyone finds one let me know so we can keep track.

[Thekees]

Today was another directional change on the USDCAD where the direction was given. An open above 1.33240 would mean a rally and it opened 1.33413 on my charts and it is now at 1.33832 so a decent move so far. A close above  1.33730 will mean a rally till the next turning point which seems to be Monday or Tuesday since they have the same aggregate bar high, they also have directional changes.

This is now 7/7 correct so far. You like being an active trader just check socrates every morning and place the trade according to the open (unless it is to close and your data differs from Socrates).

I wonder where these numbers come from. They don´t seem to be reversals nor are they the closing price of the day before, or pivot points, no idea.

Anyway 7/7 could still be just a streak, lets see how many in a row are correct. If anyone finds one let me know so we can keep track.

This is interesting! So your criteria is take only trades on open based on what Socrates says, eg an open above or below a certain number implies a directional forecast move.
How do you use the DCs or turning points here? I was under the impression that they appear to change and thus it would not be possible to hold overnight. Do you only trade intraday? Screenshots of the process and the Pro level would be nice too if possible. And yor mechanical criteria in using Socrates? Very interested in seeing how this goes.

The DC´s do change but these messages are given on the day itself. So today on the USDCAD it said there was a directional change and gave those numbers. Socrates does not usually give these numbers, it often just says something like, Potential of decline/rally etc.

[Strike Eagle 26]

For Panic Cycles, being a reversal or a large move means that opening a strangle should net profit pretty much every time, no? The reason is because if it is a reversal, you'll be able to catch the top or bottom to exceed the previous session timeframe, and if it is just a large move, it will exceed the expected move that is priced into an option's premium. My question is, should we EVER trade based on the timing model, or not? If so, when? Or should we trade ONLY on Reversals, and if so, when? For example, elected Reversals only, or against Reversals too sometimes? I'd just want to trade the types of trades that have 100% success rate, as Armstrong says never to anticipate, let the market show the way. I think only Major elected Reversals can do that.

 Armstrong has explained  this.
"You don’t get time from the reversals, we are merging it with time from the standpoint of when they are elected.
The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected."

So you can simply wait for a given reversal to be elected without having to even watch the array since the purpose of The Forecast Array is to enable you to quickly see when the computer models are looking for ideal highs or lows in addition to important changes in trends and volatility.

 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 

If you want close to 100% certainty then yes only buy or sell when a reversal has actually been elected for the close.
Quote "Generally when a reversal point is elected but the price is substantially below or above the number, the market will retest the reversal before it resumes the indicated trend. Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through."

The reversals will always be the deciding factor not the array. The reversals can be used in isolation but certainly not the array.

But if you want the most precision then only trade singular markets
Quote
"The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision. Market movements will bounce precisely on these specific Reversal points. Stock indexes, on the other hand, will find that absolute precision is rare.  Since the S&P is introducing a series of 500 variables into the equation, this tends to suggest that absolute precision begins to suffer with an increased number of variables"


In May it appears we have a significant turning point on the Dow and various other markets so if we test a weekly/monthly reversal most likely in the 24 000 zone you could easily trade the reversals in reverse and buy against those bearish reversals which will mean you are using both  time and the price together with the next turning point being July which should produce the opposite event.

[whizzledog]

Another thing that 100% works, as far as I can tell (data for 1 Year), is the 1% Rule. In the new Version it is now the 1,5% Rule, but I have seen this worked out too with 0,98%.
I can rembember the first time a Weekly Bull was elected and the Price was going down. Then I realized the Monthly Bullish was 1% away and of course it tested the Monthly Bullish again in 2 Weeks.

[whizzledog]

@ Strike Eagle 26
Buying against the Reversals has worked out last Year on a Weekly basis. And I didn’t do it only on the Third Reversal. My observation was that: when the Price moves quick to the Reversal it will bounce off. When the Price comes slowly near the chance of electing is greater. This is just my theory and needs further proof.
MA also wrote that the speed of the move is important. Has anyone experience to share?

And thanks for the Links, read them all. And missed some of them…...

[etoimene]

was generated 3 times from different price action events.

Generated, not elected.

[Strike Eagle 26]

Bikefront Quote "I agree that the low was called near perfectly, and I traded that one, but remember that the call for a high in February was also made and it didn't pan out. "

 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support. Armstrong said on his private blog  on Thursday 28 Feb

 " As suspected, the Dow elected two Weekly Bullish Reversals last week which gave us the pop. We did not elect the 4th and the market pulled back to avoid the Monthly Bullish Reversal. This is all consistent with the view that we are still consolidating and February can remain as a temporary high with a retest of support. March appear volatile so be on guard for retest of the support"

[etoimene]

 Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.
 

To add to confusion, there is also possibility of cycle inversion.

I would like to see some clarification of that. How to detect that inversion is happening?

[etoimene]

" If you are expect just BUY and SELL without comprehending how everything functions, then this is not the model for you. "

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/the-princeton-models-and-methodologies-a-users-guide/how-to-use-the-forecasting-arrays/

[etoimene]

 February was in fact a turning point because we did form a temporary high with a retest of support.

What was support in this case?
It was obviously very far above monthly bearish reversal.