Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[FooDSt4mP]

I know, because I know people thus concerned..and none of them ever, ever, EVER asked anyone for money for anything unless they decided to run active tutelage(which I understand when pricey, simply because you have to weigh it against your own opportunity cost and time investment).

Is this not the same situation as s3052?  Opportunity cost and time investment are the same here as with private tutelage.  Except he his offering his knowledge free and merely accepting donations.  He has to be able to justify spending time on this.

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[LMGTFY]

Heading out now, but quick replies and I'll reply in depth later...

Oh, for goodness sake. Many, many people here "promote" this. It's humorous. It's a joke. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme, and no one (well, mostly no one) takes it seriously. I don't personally bother with it, but for those that do it's a bit of harmless fun.

Is that what Madoff said, too?
No, but seriously - when people promote it, they are lending it life/credence, and the bottom line is that it's a classic ponzi scheme. How you FEEL about it is up to anyone(chuckle lulul), but it is what it is.
My point was: it's a Ponzi scheme.
Yours is that that's great fun.
Some might disagree.

Fine, it's a ponzi scheme. It promises a tiny return for a tiny "investment". I'm not worried it's going to bankrupt anyone; my sole concern is that sooner or later someone was bound to see it and think "oh noes! Ponzi! Run away! Warn the world!" Which has just happened here. So, thanks for your warning, I hope no one views it as any reflection on bitcoin or on any of the people who participate in it.

Yeah, right. Try looking around the web and see how many people give away trading analysis. Most charge for it all, some give you "teasers" to encourage you to pay for the whole thing. In any event, trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire". I have trading experience (not nearly as much) and I can assure you I'm in no way wealthy.

I know sites, blogs, twitters that would take more time to read than there is time in the day, all "analysing the market". It's not as if they are hard to find, but the use is disputeable with all of them.

As for 'trading experience does not equate to "multi-millionaire"' - I did not claim that, but anyone who knows how to trade either goes into obscurity and money eventually(and past just double digits) or gets attention. I know, because I know people thus concerned..and none of them ever, ever, EVER asked anyone for money for anything unless they decided to run active tutelage(which I understand when pricey, simply because you have to weigh it against your own opportunity cost and time investment).

What you did was take the claim "12+ years experience" and say: "Anyone who has enough funds and experience to be in the trading game for a decade, trading with real money, has literally got it made." So, apologies, my assumption of "got it made" was "multi-millionaire", but that was purely my assumption. Just like you assumed that experience translates into "got it made".

Right... because until we had margin trading technical analysis was impossible.

That was not my point. My point was simply that with barely a chart history it's rather tough to chart out s/r levels, and without proper market depth(liquidity), reliability of price levels in general becomes questionable. If you can create no-bid/-ask situations much more easily, then prices can go wonky much more easily.

Now that is approaching a valid criticism. Remember, however, that price depth transcends one exchange.

There are valid criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin. But these are not them.

Cool, list me some.

Well, you could always search for them rather than ask someone who doesn't necessarily have any criticisms of technical analysis of bitcoin? There have been some recent posts on this, which I found thought-provoking, though I disagreed with them. You'll need to do the searching, however, unless you're prepared to wait until I get back.

[Current-C]

Bitcoins are subject to the same psychological market influences as anything else i.e. greed/fear, and technical analyses is just a way to translate those influences into a visual format that can help make educated predictions.  There are valid concerns that in such a thinly traded market there is the possibility of manipulation that will render some of the analyses invalid, which is why, in my opinion, it is always a wise idea to balance the technicals with the fundamentals.  Nobody, no matter how experienced, knows exactly what is going to happen in the future.  The most we can hope for is to make educated guesses with the information we have.

s3052 has come here offering his opinions on the direction of the trends in the short and long term based on whatever information he has.  He offers this service for free and asks only that you donate if you find the information valuable.  Don't like his opinions?  Think he's a scammer?  Fine, don't donate. 

The purpose of this thread, (and correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new here too) is to contribute to the best of our ability our opinions of the direction of the trend based on technical chart levels -- not to debate the merits of technical analyses itself, or to criticize personally the members who offer those opinions freely. 

It is quite easy to post a new thread.  You could even start one with the title "The Bitcoin Technical Analyses of s3052 is Crap.  Here's Why." and see if you get a favorable response.  Perhaps some will even donate to you for saving them from being scammed.  In the end the market will decide.

[S3052]

Bitcoins are subject to the same psychological market influences as anything else i.e. greed/fear, and technical analyses is just a way to translate those influences into a visual format that can help make educated predictions.  There are valid concerns that in such a thinly traded market there is the possibility of manipulation that will render some of the analyses invalid, which is why, in my opinion, it is always a wise idea to balance the technicals with the fundamentals.  Nobody, no matter how experienced, knows exactly what is going to happen in the future.  The most we can hope for is to make educated guesses with the information we have.

s3052 has come here offering his opinions on the direction of the trends in the short and long term based on whatever information he has.  He offers this service for free and asks only that you donate if you find the information valuable.  Don't like his opinions?  Think he's a scammer?  Fine, don't donate. 

The purpose of this thread, (and correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new here too) is to contribute to the best of our ability our opinions of the direction of the trend based on technical chart levels -- not to debate the merits of technical analyses itself, or to criticize personally the members who offer those opinions freely. 

It is quite easy to post a new thread.  You could even start one with the title "The Bitcoin Technical Analyses of s3052 is Crap.  Here's Why." and see if you get a favorable response.  Perhaps some will even donate to you for saving them from being scammed.  In the end the market will decide.

+1

Thanks for this fair assessment.

1. Some people here may remember what I have written when I started this thread on Oct 18, 2010:

"For those who are interested in Technical Analysis and to use it to trade bitcoins.

A couple of comments first:
I will publish on a regular basis my p.o.v. This does not give any trading recommendation. Trading remains at your own risk.
I will regularly cover the most liquid markets and I may expand this to others (i.e. btcex in Russian Rubels).

Of note: Please don't mix this with fundamentals. This thread is specifically for technical analysis. Of course you are welcome to comment on fundamentals, but I will not reply."

2. I have a 12h+ / day job and this is why I am encouraging you to donate some coins as I do this technical analysis on top of this job and my family. As Current-C mentioned, you do not have to.

It would be great if you could keep this thread to its initial purpose. thanks in advance

[Justsomeforumuser]

Bitcoins are subject to ..

This whole post could have been taken 1:1 from a random forex forum thread and it would have been worded exactly like this..ideally in reply to someone pointing out a major flaw in the thread's main subject(or trading system etc pp) with rhyme and reason.
It's incredibly interesting to see that happen.

(These posts in some cases feel at times a little bit like "Oh no, he might take away $importantserviceoropportunity that might never otherwise return or exist again in this shape or form and I might not be able to profit myself if that happens!"..maybe in this case to have one more voice say "Yes sir, this BTC thing will keep on rolling higher!" or to give those who are actually doing button-push-trading atm a justification for speculation. </wild guesses>
And in some cases it's just an honest defense of something you enjoy having around.)


Anyway. I pointed out things that don't add up to me(both about the market itself as well as the poster).

To be perfectly honest, I would find it both unfair to him and me - as well as  pointless, as only people who can really actually "get it" are able to judge it with any merit to begin with - to go into detailed criticism of what is actually posted. You could likely do all sorts of things, such as e.g. accuse him of constantly hedging his bets by saying "it will of course go up, unless it goes down") or a plethora of other things, but the simple truth is that 90% of all folks throwing TA about like candy do that already(this is not to say that TA itself is worthless or technical trading not possible..I know the exact opposite is true) so it's no different here.
There's a reason for an abundance of that kind of thing. So I was trying to point out much more basic flaws/warning signs.
Anyhow.

Fans will be fans one way or another, that's a base logic that holds true in any subject or, in this case, internet forum.
Nonetheless I at least gave anyone who cared to read it the opportunity to reflect on things as they are.

I'm fine with him posting, I just personally would not "believe" any of it nor push any money around based on it, neither in his nor the market's direction..but of course we all have our own free will and our own decisions to make.
I feel like I am just rudely intruding/thread disrupting now and will bow out.

[allinvain]

I have been wondering if this is a pump-and-dump.

If it is I would watch out for another increase in volume over 64,000 concurrent with an increase in price... Which is precisely the condition I would be trying to create if I were doing it.

God I hope not. This is precisely why I worry that bitcoin is becoming a speculators bitch currency...

Seriously what matter more than TRADING bitcoins for USD is trading bitcoins for products and services. The bitcoin economy needs to grow faster!

[epii]

Looking at the market depth right now, I think the reversal might be beginning...
A little resistance at $8, and then it's a slide.

EDIT:  Aaand resistance is broken.  Before I got to sell.   

[S3052]

Again, the charts gave a clear signal. This is the chart before the decline:

[ribuck]

I think the reversal might be beginning ... Aaand resistance is broken

I would expect volume to be lower on the weekend, with less new money flowing in to MtGox. Mt Gox price increases have generally been volume driven, so no great surprise here. Wait till after Monday's trading to decide what's happening.

[epii]

Again, the charts gave a clear signal. This is the chart before the decline:

I'll take your word for it, but "clear" is a bit of a stretch.

[epii]

I think the reversal might be beginning ... Aaand resistance is broken

I would expect volume to be lower on the weekend, with less new money flowing in to MtGox. Mt Gox price increases have generally been volume driven, so no great surprise here. Wait till after Monday's trading to decide what's happening.

The volume of users might be lower, but the volume of funds seems comparable to volatile times during the week.  ($119,892 USD in the past 4 hours.)

[brocktice]

Yep, there it went, all the way down to uh, 8.2?

[ribuck]

Yep, there it went, all the way down to uh, 8.2?

Well a single big seller did take the price down to 7.4

But just over 24 hours ago a single big seller took the price down to 6.51 (see the MtGox 48 hour chart). Looks like a general uptrend to me.

It's back to 8.55 now anyway.

[epii]

Yep, there it went, all the way down to uh, 8.2?

Well a single big seller did take the price down to 7.4

But just over 24 hours ago a single big seller took the price down to 6.51 (see the MtGox 48 hour chart). Looks like a general uptrend to me.

It's back to 8.55 now anyway.

And back down to 8.0.  Takeaway point (news to nobody): this market is volatile.

My original point, though, is that you don't need to be a market analyst to know this looks bearish:

[dust]

My original point, though, is that you don't need to be a market analyst to know this looks bearish:

I used to be concerned seeing that kind of chart, but based on my observations of mtgox I am not too worried.  The bid/ask distribution has always been weighted towards asks for the entire existence of mtgox, and yet huge rallies have occurred.  My theory is that it is easier to get BTC to mtgox than it is to deposit USD, so some people will store a chunk of their BTC on mtgox and put in some high offers, while buyers are likely to buy BTC immediately after their deposit clears as they believe the price will rise.  This results in less standing bids.  Many sellers of BTC are miners and in no rush to sell so they just put in big orders at higher-than-market prices.

[nster]

My original point, though, is that you don't need to be a market analyst to know this looks bearish:

I used to be concerned seeing that kind of chart, but based on my observations of mtgox I am not too worried.  The bid/ask distribution has always been weighted towards asks for the entire existence of mtgox, and yet huge rallies have occurred.  My theory is that it is easier to get BTC to mtgox than it is to deposit USD, so some people will store a chunk of their BTC on mtgox and put in some high offers, while buyers are likely to buy BTC immediately after their deposit clears as they believe the price will rise.  This results in less standing bids.  Many sellers of BTC are miners and in no rush to sell so they just put in big orders at higher-than-market prices.

Very true, which explains some of it, but this is a HUGE difference.  Recently, what has brought the price up and kept it up are infrequent large buys, which means that if the large buys stop coming and the large sells start being more frequent, a Huge downfall will happen. While I agree that it does seem like BT will have the Xmas tree effect, this is NOT a stock, you have to remember BTC can always surprise.

[brocktice]

Ok, NOW it has dropped.

[mewantsbitcoins]

S3052, I think people will be paying a whole lot more attention to what you're saying from now on  

[nster]

S3052, I think people will be paying a whole lot more attention to what you're saying from now on  

what made me trust S3052 is the silver prediction

[kiba]

We need to tally up all SR3052's predictions and see how much he is right and how much he is wrong.