Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[zby]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Too bad it didn't reach $30 as my "all-in" target was around $29 area. Who knows, I may still have a chance before this summer doldrums is over.

16jfs75JeVTn6y6WKHy4BkCmyFsykhBqYr

Yeah, my plan was to make up my loss by buying a ton below $30.

At first I thought you are talking about bitcoins

[S3052]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Too bad it didn't reach $30 as my "all-in" target was around $29 area. Who knows, I may still have a chance before this summer doldrums is over.

16jfs75JeVTn6y6WKHy4BkCmyFsykhBqYr

Yeah, my plan was to make up my loss by buying a ton below $30.

I shorted Silver again today at 38.5$ (and already declined 5% which is nice 50% at 10 leverage..)

Somehow I need to make up for the 100 BTC bet loss :-)

It was still a lot of fun to bet wtih you guy, FreeMoney and Bitcool.

I am thinking about another one to Silver below 30$. I am sure it will be hit soon, and below 20$ by the end of this year.

[S3052]

Freemoney and bitcool:

Will do 50 btc with each of you.

On silver spot price trading below 30 at least intraday before may 31, 2011.

Consider it booked. I just want to know what source you consider valid for this. I watch Kitco, don't know if that's lame or rigged or whatever. 

Wow, when silver was at 49 I thought I had a lock. Not so sure at all now!

I am happy to pay you the 50btc each if it does not fall another 4.9$ :-)
I made a very good trade as I shortened massively between 45-49 $ and now it is 34.9$.

Looks like I survived.

1Dxv4XFiX2V4WZ2UysiozKPEgJGS2sRARs

Paid 50 BTC to both, bitcool and FreeMoney

[bitcool]

Paid 50 BTC to both, bitcool and FreeMoney

Got it, thanks.

It looks like all three of us are hoping for a sub-$30 silver, albeit for different reasons  

I am pretty confident the $20 year-end target is a impossibility, but feel making the bet is unfair to you -- you'll only win if silver takes a 45% haircut from here -- I don't want to be perceived as taking advantage of somebody's judgement lapse.

Edit: I apologize if this came across as arrogant or any sort, what I really meant was you put yourself in a disadvantageous position from pure statistical/probability point of view.

[bitcool]

@s3052, how about this: 50 BTC, on 12/31, if $silver is below $25/ounce, you win, if above $40, I win. $25~40 no one wins/loses.

[S3052]

I have reset the poll again, so please vote:

 Up
 Same as now
 Down
 I don't know

[speeder]

That pool is more wishfull thinking than anything...

But good that the wishes happen!

I only hope the price rise wait a bit until I have new batch of money to dump into bitcoin

[Dansker]

S3052, you are doing a great job I must say!

I was wondering however, if you take upcoming media coverage of Bitcoin into your short term analysis?

In those cases where you know in advance of course

[vuce]

I've always thought this kind of analysis is bullshit, but the fact remains, this guy has never been wrong. Props to you, Sir.

[Bimmerhead]

I've always thought this kind of analysis is bullshit, but the fact remains, this guy has never been wrong. Props to you, Sir.

Yes, S3052 has done a really good job applying Elliott Wave theory to bitcoin.  What I find extra amazing is that EW theory seems to apply in this market despite the fact the composition and number of participants is changing dramatically and quickly.  The overall investing behaviour of new participants seems to match old participants.  I would have thought they would have been bullish immediately upon finding out about bitcoin, but apparently their willingness to buy waxes and wanes with everybody else.

[LZ]

2 hrs ago:

2 mins ago:

[allinvain]

Wow...that's quite impressive. I guess we're going to be taken on a roller coaster ride soon....

[da2ce7]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011.pdf

[MoonShadow]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

[Exqulior]

Yes, it seems we are going up indeed. Which is actually a very good thing. For great succes there must be a much larger combined value in Bitcoins to uphold a strong economy, but it also should become a bit less volatile. So the way I see it, the sooner we get to much higher levels and some price stability, the better :-) As long as the value can jump 20+% on a day, it will be hard to build an actually good functioning community on top of it.

Anyways, this is my first post here. I have been buying in for a few days now. Unfortunatly, and I really hate this, I havent ran into this at an earlier stage. I really love it! Actually, I was explaning the very concept (and benefits) of the Bitcoins to my girlfriend about a week ago. Before I knew it already existed.

I am still awaiting a Paxum transfer to Mt. Gox to arrive. Does anyone have any idea on how long it takes for these funds to be credited to my account?

[Current-C]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

Not to derail the thread but don't you think there's plenty of political motivation right now?  Unsustainable spending and debt levels will certainly encourage the money spigot to continue to flow, even if the political class denies it.  There is far more motivation for that then to drastically cut spending.  In addition all it takes is one major creditor to decide our bonds aren't safe and it could start a run, with the Fed as the only remaining buyer. 

Don't get me wrong its looking more and more like another deflationary scare this summer first but that'll just be an excuse to print more.  I agree the bankers prefer the slow and steady inflation but I think they're finally losing control of the system.

On a bitcoin note who's rooting for 18? 

[MoonShadow]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

Not to derail the thread but don't you think there's plenty of political motivation right now?  Unsustainable spending and debt levels will certainly encourage the money spigot to continue to flow, even if the political class denies it.  There is far more motivation for that then to drastically cut spending.  In addition all it takes is one major creditor to decide our bonds aren't safe and it could start a run, with the Fed as the only remaining buyer. 

Don't get me wrong its looking more and more like another deflationary scare this summer first but that'll just be an excuse to print more.  I agree the bankers prefer the slow and steady inflation but I think they're finally losing control of the system.

On a bitcoin note who's rooting for 18? 

A sovereign debt default by the US is not just remote, it would signal to the world's bondholders that there was no safe haven left on Earth.  Gold, silver and some classes of commodities would shoot for the moon, but that is not the same as inflation.  Inflation, at it's core, is expansion of the monetary base beyond the growth of the underlying economy; which favors those with first access to the new currency.  Hyperinflation, therefore, is the panic expansion of monetary base by political will.  No bankers would voluntarily do this, they would rather have massive deflation because with deflation at least their con game could potentially resume after the crunch.  Once hyperinflation begins, there is no historical evidence that it can be stopped prior to the total destruction of the currency itself; if for no other reason than the public has already lost trust (in the government, in the currency itself) and will actively avoid transacting in the currency at all, and when they must will actively avoid holding that currency.  This results in a massive increase in velocity, as every buyer is trying to spend what they have before the value goes down further.

If this were to happen to the US (not impossible) where then would the wealthy find haven?

[billyjoeallen]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

I concur. The economy is circling the drain, but that means nothing as far as monetary policy is concerned because ANYTHING BERNANKE DOES WILL BE BAD. anything. He's in a no-win situation. We could just as easily have a deflationary depression.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20703/bernankes-qex-box

example: weak dollar= more exports, but higher commodity prices
strong dollar= lower commodity prices, but less exports

[FooDSt4mP]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

I concur. The economy is circling the drain, but that means nothing as far as monetary policy is concerned because ANYTHING BERNANKE DOES WILL BE BAD. anything. He's in a no-win situation. We could just as easily have a deflationary depression.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20703/bernankes-qex-box

example: weak dollar= more exports, but higher commodity prices
strong dollar= lower commodity prices, but less exports

Except what are we going to export?  We have given up manufacturing endeavors for financial wizardry endeavors and intellectual property.  Do you really think people are going to pay us licensing fees for ideas?  They might make one payment, but once the cat is out of the bag, they'll run with it.  And their governments will back them up because thy're no longer afraid of the US.

[MoonShadow]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

I concur. The economy is circling the drain, but that means nothing as far as monetary policy is concerned because ANYTHING BERNANKE DOES WILL BE BAD. anything. He's in a no-win situation. We could just as easily have a deflationary depression.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20703/bernankes-qex-box

example: weak dollar= more exports, but higher commodity prices
strong dollar= lower commodity prices, but less exports

Except what are we going to export?  We have given up manufacturing endeavors for financial wizardry endeavors and intellectual property.

The US manufacturing base has increased every decade right up til the present.  We make more stuff, for less cost, then ever.  And we continue to do so.  It's true that manufacturing has fallen off as a percentage of GDP, but it's still huge.