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I am sure you will understand that I do not want to disclose too much wrt to amount of BTC owned (I do not want a thug boat with a wrench going after me) but I understand that the way I said this sparked some curiosity on your side which I appreciate as interest in my person/story and that I'll try to satisfy.
I am glad that you did not interpret my post in terms of asking you to reveal very many particulars in regards to your BTC stash size... or even any personal details that go beyond what you might be ready and willing to share or that might potentially jeopardize your OPsec.
I suspect that several of us have learned to dance around those kinds of personal subjects in a variety of ways - even though sometimes some details might need to be discussed in order to know about various references that are being made.. in your case, it was the hamburger flipping scenario.. or not.
Whether you are literally referring to a potential need to engage in burger flipping or some other JOB skill that is outside of your preference might not necessarily need to be specified with any kind of precision in order to still get the points across... which you largely seem to have done.
Seems also that if any one is coming out with some specifics, like flipping hamburguesas, as you did, then frequently some prodding for follow through will be worth attempting, which I did do.
I have never bought BTC with fiat until half a year ago.
Can't go back in time, but that's too bad... as you can see from the previous DCA link that I had provided that attempted to connect with the length of time of your forum registration.
I mined shitcoins(TM) since 2014 and sold them for BTC, LTC and DOGE which I consider good for HODLing over a longer period of time, though mainly BTC.
Well that's too bad, too - though I do understand that some peeps have actually determined that they may be better able to accumulate BTC through mining or otherwise engaging in shitcoin activities rather than directly engaging with BTC... I will try NOT to judge you too harshly, since I do not recall you ever pumping shitcoins in this thread.. so at least there is that potentially redeemable angle..
And, also, if you largely have come to realize that BTC is the ONLY coin that is really worth HODLing in the longer term, then there is something redeemable about that, too...
Up until 2017 I mostly made sure to never have more BTC in my wallet than I could afford to lose should it go to zero.
Just by your way of framing your pre-2017 BTC investment perspective, it appears that you realized that your earlier BTC investment perspective was likely a bit too conservative. I do understand that sometimes people will invest into bitcoin with a relatively modest approach, maybe something like 1% of their overall investment portfolio in bitcoin, but their particular circumstances could have easily justified a way more aggressive BTC approach - something closer to 10% may well have been way more prudent for their circumstances, even if it was quite a bit more aggressive of an approach.... sometimes we are not going to get very far with out some amount of aggressiveness.
Also, over the years, I have seen some people limit their BTC investment size by never buying BTC and asserting that they ONLY "earn" BTC, and there are circumstances in which those kinds of self-imposed limitations also seem to have caused those kinds of peeps to NOT be sufficiently aggressive in their approach to BTC and therefore when the BTC price pumps come, they have hardly any BTC at stake in order to really experience some kind of meaningful profit levels.
On the other hand, there are some folks who have also done quite well with their lil selfies with a relatively modest investment into BTC even something like a mere 1% investment into BTC, too.. and then just ride out a cycle or two.. and woaza!!!!.
The 2017/2018 bull season changed my perspective and made me kind of greedy so I started to stack every single sat and hoped for a quick recovery (that didn't go too well as you all know).
I agree with the spirit that overcompensating sometimes does not work too well either, as you seem to have had learned.
Therefor I had to sell a sizeable amount of BTC to pay invoices during the last crypto winter - at worst times even at 3k.
Many of us longer term BTC HODLers have witnessed that drops in BTC can be quite brutal, especially for folks who may have gone too aggressively, as you seem to have suffered from such...
I did have to shave a bit of BTC off in the November 2018 to February 2019 - ish time-frame, too based on some contracts that I had started in about March 2018, and a lot of bills ended up coming due at NOT such a great time in the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019... so maybe I had ended up shaving off something in the territory of 5% of my BTC stash by sales of BTC and/or failings to buy BTC at those discount prices because of crunches on my cashflow around that worser BTC price time.
I am not really clear, even with my own looking back, if I have really made up for some of that, but I sense that I could have probably handled those cashflow projections a wee bit better....
And maybe there were similar circumstances for me in early 2015 - in which the market was at a low (around $200 to $250), and those very extreme periods of low BTC prices cause stresses on my cash flow.., including that emergencies seem to be inclined to come during those kinds of cashflow stressed periods. In early 2015, I had a kind of business cashflow related emergency, and it was not even directly related to my BTC activities, and even though I was not forced to sell any BTC... I was put in uncomfortable positions, and largely, I was able to dance around some of the cashflow shortages - but there was a period of about late January 2015 to April 2015 that I was not able to buy any BTC and to take advantage of lower BTC prices that were largely in the lower $200s, and then the remainder of 2015, I had not been able to buy very many BTC, either because I had blown a lot of my wadd in 2014, when BTC prices were much higher.
We went into partial FuckYou mode this spring because the missus and me could now afford a few years living a very frugal but happy life on low income and fiat reserves acquired through a property sale and because we are both fucking sick of the
corporate world nowadays
Well, that does not sound too bad. I read ahead a little in your post and if you can maintain yourself until 2024, then a minimum of $50k for BTC would keep you in decently good shape, and $100k or more would put you in a kind of jollyland. Fair enough. Fair enough.
(read: not good at lying at customers, blaming others successfully for your failures and making yourself look much better than you are and not liking endless and meaningless bullshit bingo meetings with people that love to hear themselves talking while avoiding real work as best as they can).
I ran my own business for over 25yrs but it seems that nowadays there is no room for no bullshit businesses. People seem to literally expect you to lie at them at every occasion and discount for it, if you don't lie like the others your offering just looks weak since customers are used to discount half of what you said as lies and exaggeration.
I doubt that you need to reiterate various specific problematic issues with staying active in today's modern working world in order for any of us to understand that transitioning into partial fuck you status would be preferred, if possible and if you are able to maintain it... and yes, I can appreciate that there is a kind of gambling angle to your plan forward, too.
That said, in ~4-5 years we will probably have to start getting some fiat out i.e. for maintenance on our home.
Yes. Some amount of deferred maintenance can be acceptable, as long as it does not end up biting you in the butt.
40-50k in 2024 would make things look pretty nice and a prospect of selling BTC at 100k or more in 2030 would be just marvelous. It basically boils down to when we can afford to forego completely the low income we still have.
Even though we can appreciate that there appears to be a bit of a gamble in your numbers, at least your timeline seems to provide for decent odds that your gamble could end up paying off... we could have 1, 2, 3 or even more exponential BTC price movements in that time period - but surely, if you weigh putting your money in BTC versus putting you money into some other investment, it does seem to better to have a decent practicality in these times and potential asymmetry in these times in betting on BTC rather than in some other asset classes, ... at least in these times.. and ultimately, you have to decide what ratio that you believe works decently well for you in terms of your own particulars.
It could be the case that 5-7 years down the road, your neighbors will be saying amongst themselves: "damn psycodad had been letting his property go to crap.. all of a sudden he's got the nicest place on the block. I wonder if psycodad has some kind of secret? perhaps bitcoin?"
And, of course, you will plausibly deny any of that, right?
You may have likely realized that in recent times, my BTC cashing out scenario have remained a bit more conservative than yours because in recent times, I have been using the 200 week moving average as my measuring price point in terms of attempting to hypothesize over various kinds of fuck you status based on current location of that 200 week moving average (which currently is at about $6,800 as I type this post), and maybe projecting it ahead for conservatively at a BTC price appreciation of 6% per year and when I am feeling more aggressive in my calculations, using 12% per year as my attempt to project ahead in a more bullish kind of way... so if I am using the 200 week moving average as my base starting point, then I am counting on the dips largely staying above that 200 week moving average line.. even though such line could start to go down or sideways, but in recent times, it seems to be approaching appreciation of about $100 per week, which seems to be a good thing for measuring purposes - and even causing conservative fuck you status projections to seem more aen more bullish.
Surely, I am not asserting that your BTC price projections (hopes, forward) to attempt to anticipate the top, rather than my current approach of attempting to measure the bottom might not work out for you, but I personally feel a lot more comfortable going with conservative numbers and attempting to measure the bottoms in making my planning ahead in regards to potential or current fuck you status cashflow projections.
If things age not so well until 2025, then I'd have to figuratively consider to wear a shirt with a capital yellow M on it for the night shift (ugly old geezers only get to serve at the drive-in counter at night when you can't see how old and ugly they really are) or have some wealthy relative fatally miss a step on the stairways (j/k, I have no wealthy relatives). In reality it will just delay the full FuckYou mode for longer than we hoped and wished for.
Of course, it is good to have Plan B scenarios, too.. and a variety of options in terms of areas in which you might be able to earn more money or cut back on some of your weekly/monthly spending/expenses, too.
I understand that this is a very risky life plan, but then again SWMBO and me believe in fiat becoming more and more worthless over time and at the same time BTC becoming even more scarce and in demand as store of value than it already is.
If you and the missus are mostly on the same page too in terms of discussing options or ways to make a lot of the various financial scenarios work out, including considering various income generating options or spending cutting options, and planning for various scenarios, then that would NOT necessarily be a bad thing, either. And, if you have gone over various investment and allocation scenarios, and you are largely on the same page, what is there to complain about? - just hope that some variation of the better possible scenarios play out than the worser case scenarios, right?
Also in my whole business life all the risks I took seemed in hindsight always higher with a lesser chance of great profitability than it now looks with BTC. In short, just sitting on our hands for some years seems like the most profitable business plan I ever came up with.
Surely, you have to come to your own assessment regarding the asymmetric nature of the BTC bet, and of course there are a whole hell of a lot of us who are pretty damned bullish about future BTC scenarios, including yours truly - and several others, especially in this thread - but in the end, you are the one who has to personally decide how to play the cards that you got because you are the one who is going to have to live with your own allocation decisions and conclusions and hopefully, you are not coming to them from any bad sources on the interwebs, too..
By the way if bitcoin goes to fuck, some of us here may well be crying in our own milk (and maybe we were lying the whole time that we did not have a pot to piss in), and we are not going to have any time to hear sob stories from you and the missus about how you might not have had a sufficiently adequate plan b in case this bitcoin thing does not catch on by 2025 or 2030 or whenever..... hahahahaha
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