Analysis

[Tzupy]

It's not possible to say now if this is just a dead cat bounce or part of a new uptrend, IMO in about 10 - 15 days
the market will decide on a clear direction. Bulls are spending a lot of ammo now, they may run out too soon.

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[masterluc]

I don't see impulsive price behavior,  so yes I assume it's a dead cat bounce. It may go to hourly 200-400 sma. I assume hourly 200 is pretty safe target to sell.

[RoadTrain]

Bulls are spending a lot of ammo now, they may run out too soon.

Bears are doing the same. Finex shorts are rising again, selling pressure is somewhat strong, but they may run out of ammo as well, especially with increasing bids.
This consolidation is notorious IMO.

[Tzupy]

Bulls are spending a lot of ammo now, they may run out too soon.

Bears are doing the same. Finex shorts are rising again, selling pressure is somewhat strong, but they may run out of ammo as well, especially with increasing bids.
This consolidation is notorious IMO.

It's much easier to send coins than fiat to the exchanges, as proven by the 30k whale.
How do you see short status on BFX? Bfxdata is stuck on the 5th October...

[RoadTrain]

Bulls are spending a lot of ammo now, they may run out too soon.

Bears are doing the same. Finex shorts are rising again, selling pressure is somewhat strong, but they may run out of ammo as well, especially with increasing bids.
This consolidation is notorious IMO.

It's much easier to send coins than fiat to the exchanges, as proven by the 30k whale.
How do you see short status on BFX? Bfxdata is stuck on the 5th October...

With SEPA sending fiat is easy as well. We don't know the exact amount of fiat/coins waiting on the sidelines, so it's pointless to guess

For BFX I look at its stats page https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats which shows the amount of swaps outstanding. It's risen by more than 2k BTC since the wall...

[AizenSou]

I know this is not the thread for such non technical analysis, but how about some selling pressure from banksters et al with load of cash? I mean, they must know we are coming for them, so they may want to try to dry out our hope in bitcoin? Not that the price has impacted the hard bitcoiners, only the late comers that indeed invested @500-700$?

This is pure speculation but i think that the previous big crashes from 260 to 35 or 35 to 2$ did not required a lot of money and could definitely be explained by human psychology, bitcoin being relatively new at that time, but now that it went to +1000$, we surely are even more confident about its potential. Hence, big bagholders are somehow trying to refrain the next bubble momentum in order to somehow buy more time or even accumulate huge bitcoin position? Gold is collapsing, stocks too, just not teh dollar, i just find it sort of weird.. Especially knowing the US economy is just a joke, disconnected from any fundamentals, on the verge of implosing and only sustained by professionnal scammers and manipulators with money printers..

If you want success with trading - never try to figure out other participants mind. You will never know. They just act. Like me and you and all. You better try to figure out what happens with your mind. Learn what is going on with you - not others.

Wow how could I miss this wonderful thread. Best said ever !

[masterluc]

Rebound to 350-390 expected

Bah.... 395. A bit higher. But I was surprised how fast.

......

When earlier at 266 bubble bitcoin copied out US stock indexes - it now copies gold moves.

[fewcoins]

Rebound to 350-390 expected

Bah.... 395. A bit higher. But I was surprised how fast.

......

When earlier at 266 bubble bitcoin copied out US stock indexes - it now copies gold moves.

Because of how surprised you are the price is falling... be careful of the correction to 300 or less

[masterluc]

Yes, news lows are probably on horizon

[kryptopojken]

Yes, news lows are probably on horizon

thanks as always for great work! what price range would invalidate prediction of lower lows in your opinion?

[masterluc]

Yes, news lows are probably on horizon

thanks as always for great work! what price range would invalidate prediction of lower lows in your opinion?

Daily close above blue channel
Or weekly close above bottom bb

Plunge accelerates fast when out of weekly bands!

[oda.krell]

Rebound to 350-390 expected

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1412579128549.png

Bah.... 395. A bit higher. But I was surprised how fast.

......

When earlier at 266 bubble bitcoin copied out US stock indexes - it now copies gold moves.

Question:

A few posts earlier you said that the pullback from 275 didn't look very impulsive to you.

I have to admit, I didn't see it like that (but you seem to be right). To me, the quick move from 330 to 380 looked very impulsive. What made you think it wasn't?

[masterluc]

Question:

A few posts earlier you said that the pullback from 275 didn't look very impulsive to you.

I have to admit, I didn't see it like that (but you seem to be right). To me, the quick move from 330 to 380 looked very impulsive. What made you think it wasn't?

Can't explain. I just feel impulse or not. This is more like ABC correction rather 12345 motive move. However it didn't overlapped still and may bring surprise still to my feelings.

[ssmc2]

ML, just out of curiosity, do you put much stock in the weekly kdj for price predictions?

[masterluc]

wat?

[pinky]

ML, just out of curiosity, do you put much stock in the weekly kdj for price predictions?

kdj is indicator that is currently popular with some bitcoiners 

[masterluc]

Old school hardcore here. Only macd and rsi are high for me however until they start  lie oftenly

[ssmc2]

Old school hardcore here. Only macd and rsi are high for me however until they start  lie oftenly

Fair enough, thanks! 

[windjc]

Question:

A few posts earlier you said that the pullback from 275 didn't look very impulsive to you.

I have to admit, I didn't see it like that (but you seem to be right). To me, the quick move from 330 to 380 looked very impulsive. What made you think it wasn't?

Can't explain. I just feel impulse or not. This is more like ABC correction rather 12345 motive move. However it didn't overlapped still and may bring surprise still to my feelings.

This feels A, B, C corrective to me too, but I see a C putting us in the 420 range.

I do not think we just crash and burn here. Will will close this week above the lower BB, probably testing fibs retracement on the B of around 330-350. Then the market will still have some legs up to 400s.

That will be a better set up for eventual LLs imo.

[prophetx]

fyi a new EW thread goes well with some of the charts here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812637.0