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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919364 times)
Afrikoin
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June 02, 2015, 10:56:44 AM
 #2941

I usually agree but I say for now this is as low as the price can go.
Too many people are willing to buy.
We will probably not see 200 again anytime soon.

you have any data to back that up? imo longs starts to squeeze after 200-215 so if that fails to hold, then we go deep, question is does it brake now or after bounce not so much if Cheesy

my guess is it bounces off $210/ $208 and we move sideways between $225 and $210 for a while, then, take on $200.



As for too many people wanting to buy here, a long sideways drag like the $230/245 level might do the trick. There were lots of buyers on that level too.



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June 02, 2015, 11:07:57 AM
 #2942

I usually agree but I say for now this is as low as the price can go.
Too many people are willing to buy.
We will probably not see 200 again anytime soon.

you have any data to back that up? imo longs starts to squeeze after 200-215 so if that fails to hold, then we go deep, question is does it brake now or after bounce not so much if Cheesy

IMO the long squeeze will come after the bounce. The market is not yet ready for another capitulation, more bulls need to lose hope.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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June 02, 2015, 11:31:14 AM
 #2943

I usually agree but I say for now this is as low as the price can go.
Too many people are willing to buy.
We will probably not see 200 again anytime soon.

you have any data to back that up? imo longs starts to squeeze after 200-215 so if that fails to hold, then we go deep, question is does it brake now or after bounce not so much if Cheesy

IMO the long squeeze will come after the bounce. The market is not yet ready for another capitulation, more bulls need to lose hope.

i don't know, but there is definitely option that long squeeze comes soon, good to keep in mind

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
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June 02, 2015, 11:52:50 AM
 #2944

Funny enough, bearish as I am right now, I'm still the most bullish in here it seems Cheesy ... Just noting that escaping the (linear) downwards channel didn't lead to a serious rally, so I'm waiting to see if breaking the escape channel will lead to a (sustained) crash.

It already looked pretty certain to me that we're in for a big crash in mid-April, and that didn't pan out, so I'm definitely keeping my mind open for further range bound action.

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realdos
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June 02, 2015, 03:38:29 PM
Last edit: June 02, 2015, 04:13:32 PM by realdos
 #2945

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
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June 02, 2015, 05:25:05 PM
 #2946

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

masterluc
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June 02, 2015, 05:44:44 PM
 #2947

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
Odds higher with each bottom )

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June 02, 2015, 05:45:34 PM
 #2948

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

I tend to agree. Momentum on the weekly has clearly fallen considerably over the past 6-12 months. But it seems we have another capitulation looming. Losing $230s is super bearish IMO. So many longs were accumulated there.
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June 11, 2015, 07:53:43 PM
 #2949

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)
Odds higher with each bottom )

Any new thoughts these days? Undecided
masterluc
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June 11, 2015, 08:04:32 PM
 #2950

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

Afrikoin
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June 11, 2015, 09:54:41 PM
 #2951

200 (weekly lower bb). then 100 on break down.
If the price does reach to the $100 area, is the prediction that the correction is to be complete and bounce is followed still valid? (namely $100s is the bottom)

DanV at TradingView feels that a drop to $100 area would finally complete an EW eight wave cycle. This completion could set the stage for a new bull rally next year.

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.



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Wary
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June 12, 2015, 10:47:13 PM
 #2952

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.
5x reversal is > $1000. Smiley

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
Afrikoin
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June 12, 2015, 11:43:55 PM
 #2953

not necessarily a bull rally to astronomical figures eg $ 1000, just a good base for 3X, 4X or 5X reversal.
5x reversal is > $1000. Smiley

Meant 5X off the $100 base.



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June 13, 2015, 06:29:33 AM
 #2954

Well there's not much to analyse right here, apart from that fractal on 3D which could play out or could just be painted to trick you in buying. I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be. The move that will come out of this consolidation will be so big that you will end up making much profits anyway.
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June 13, 2015, 12:50:52 PM
 #2955

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?

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Fatman3001
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June 13, 2015, 12:59:27 PM
 #2956

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long and a 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

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BldSwtTrs
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June 13, 2015, 01:05:55 PM
 #2957

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.
molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:09:27 PM
 #2958

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long and a 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Let's say at price $100 you go long buying 100 BTC using $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so your position (+100 BTC) is worth 13,000. If you close it, you made a gain of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

Let's say at price $100 you go short selling 100 BTC for $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so to close your position and buy back the 100 BTC you'd have to put up an additonal $3,000 (you already have $10,000 from the sell). So that's a loss of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

So nothing is accomplished when opening and closing 2 equal-sized positions at the same times. Closing the long first and then waiting for price to drop is the same as not opening the pair at all and just opening a short at $130, no?

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Fatman3001
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June 13, 2015, 01:12:04 PM
 #2959

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.

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molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:20:42 PM
 #2960

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.

That's using forced liquidation as a stop order, right?

In that case I could just put 2 stop orders: a short 10% below market and a long 10% above.

If that's the essence of what fabrizio suggest (which I doubt), I agree: that could work in current conditions. Both a drop below $207 and a rise above $253 would probably result in a larger move.

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