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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919020 times)
BldSwtTrs
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June 13, 2015, 01:24:10 PM
 #2961

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


If you have a 10x long or 10x short on 10BTC each, if the movement is 30% either way you would gain roughly 20BTC (30BTC-10BTC from the losing position). 50% = 40BTC. Minus fees etc. of course.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.
You would gain 30% from the winning positin but loss 30% from the losing one.


?

I would think your losing position would be force closed between the 7%-10% mark. Wouldn't it? With 10x I mean 10x leverage.
Oh if you take stop into account, then yes.
 
But if the path of the price is something else than a straight 30% up or a straight 30% down, the payoff can be very negative (price go 10% up then 30% down, as an example).
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June 13, 2015, 01:26:09 PM
Last edit: June 13, 2015, 01:48:05 PM by Fatman3001
 #2962



That's using forced liquidation as a stop order, right?

In that case I could just put 2 stop orders: a short 10% below market and a long 10% above.

If that's the essence of what fabrizio suggest (which I doubt), I agree: that could work in current conditions. Both a drop below $207 and a rise above $253 would probably result in a larger move.


I read it that way. So basically the bet is on the momentum rather than the direction. But maybe I should just butt out and let fabrizio explain it.


Oh if you take stop into account, then yes.
 
But if the path of the price is something else than a straight 30% up or a straight 30% down, the payoff can be very negative (price go 10% up then 30% down, as an example).

Yes, when the move is in you'd better watch that mofo like a hawk. But until the alarm rings you can lower your shoulders. Just don't get totally plastered.

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June 13, 2015, 01:35:02 PM
 #2963

@molecular

You're right of course, if taken at face value, any gain will be offset by an equal loss, and vice versa.

What was presumably implicit in Fabrizio's comment is some notion of 'stop loss' (or equivalently, being margin called). As in: you don't let the losing position ride out as long as the winning position.

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molecular
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June 13, 2015, 01:50:05 PM
 #2964

@molecular

You're right of course, if taken at face value, any gain will be offset by an equal loss, and vice versa.

What was presumably implicit in Fabrizio's comment is some notion of 'stop loss' (or equivalently, being margin called). As in: you don't let the losing position ride out as long as the winning position.

I see. So that's basically a bet on the size of the next move (either way).

It's all about where to set the stops of course. I would fathom anything less than 10% away from market is too risky.

Also: I'm not convinced there will be a big move soonishtm. We could well trade around in a tight range for a long while.

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June 13, 2015, 02:27:05 PM
 #2965

Let's say at price $100 you go long buying 100 BTC using $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so your position (+100 BTC) is worth 13,000. If you close it, you made a gain of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

Let's say at price $100 you go short selling 100 BTC for $10,000

Now price rallies to $130 (+30%), so to close your position and buy back the 100 BTC you'd have to put up an additonal $3,000 (you already have $10,000 from the sell). So that's a loss of $3,000. In BTC-equivalent that'd be 23 BTC.

So nothing is accomplished when opening and closing 2 equal-sized positions at the same times. Closing the long first and then waiting for price to drop is the same as not opening the pair at all and just opening a short at $130, no?

That's true. Because of this mechanics professional investors do not buy in with amount X push the price and cash out with amount X bringing down the price to the old level.

To make money on a short term speculation the investor must create a buying rush by making continuous small investments until the community is convinced the price turns into a stable surge. Then the masses push the price farther while the culprit investor can cash out on a higher level without pushing the price down again.If that is done well prepared with enough liquidity after some time the masses find out out as a community that the new price level is not driven by fundamentals. As a result they will cash out too (but later), the price drops and the culprit investor can buy in again for lower prices.
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June 13, 2015, 02:45:30 PM
 #2966

Guys, what is the chance, that have already seen both bottom (160) and bounce (300) and already are in the period of "long silence" as described by MasterLuc?

Null?
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June 13, 2015, 03:07:13 PM
 #2967

Guys, what is the chance, that have already seen both bottom (160) and bounce (300) and already are in the period of "long silence" as described by MasterLuc?

Null?



To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.


Bro, do you even blockchain?
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June 13, 2015, 03:56:54 PM
Last edit: June 13, 2015, 05:04:47 PM by Wandererfromthenorth
 #2968

Guys, what is the chance, that have already seen both bottom (160) and bounce (300) and already are in the period of "long silence" as described by MasterLuc?

Null?
It's unlikely IMHO.

Long term the price structure is still bearish and the long downtrend still intact.

The bounce does not fit the profile of a BTC trend reversal.


Take 2011 as an example.

Following this idea:















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June 13, 2015, 03:58:15 PM
 #2969

^^^

Keep in mind that these are just a bunch of long term ideas, remember that you shouldn't trade based on long term predictions/ideas.

If there will be a no-brainer short-term trade setup in the following weeks/months, you should take it whether it's a up or down.
For example it's possible that the current $210-$250 range is gonna turn into an ascending triangle itself and breakout from there, despite the arguments in my pic. In that case you should buy the breakout of course.

PS: sorry about the pic spam
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June 13, 2015, 04:17:14 PM
 #2970

I think we're at a point when you can just leave a long and a short together and just leave them be.

*scratches head*

Can someone explain that to me? Wont the short make as much losses as the long makes gains, i.e. they cancel out?


It sounds like an OCO order to me: http://www.fxcmapps.com/metatrader-4/one-cancels-other/

After a long sideways market you have a buy limit order in place in the case the swing goes upward and at the same time a sell limit order if the price goes down. If any of the two is triggered, the other one (that didn't fill) is cancelled. Following that you can have a take profit order in place as well. Makes for relaxed trading. An example would be the forex market before London opens. Look at the price range from the Asia session, place your orders. Go for lunch. :-)

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molecular
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June 13, 2015, 04:48:31 PM
 #2971



your arrows there. they look like mushrooms... or very thin...

to anyone who can't unsee that: sorry!

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June 13, 2015, 06:29:56 PM
 #2972

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

it does feel that way. long boring sideways. but enough of the $100 talk already. Cheesy
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June 13, 2015, 09:01:07 PM
 #2973

snip

Some smart trader said that you have to smell the technicals and taste the fundamentals. My sentiment a balance of the fundamental situation as I think the feeling is the same as 2012 because while the structure is not the same, the sentiment is very similar and the wave structure is close enough.

The sentiment in 2012 was a true split between whether it will succeed or not which caused a price gridlock for a few months.
The sentiment now is a similar in that there are quite some unknowns around which shape bitcoin will take in the future. Until those are ironed out (i.e. the cap drama is settled), we will continue to see a flatline in price. I am not ruling out further capitulation, but going by price action alone I doubt it. The weak hands left quite a few months ago already.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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June 15, 2015, 02:04:09 AM
 #2974

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

And now sma20 has been broken and sma50 retested.  Huh
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June 15, 2015, 08:04:56 AM
 #2975

I can see this one taking us to 246/247 (+3 BB on ~20 day VWMA). Wouldn't be surprised though if it kind of fizzles out around there.

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June 15, 2015, 09:11:03 PM
Last edit: June 15, 2015, 09:22:42 PM by hdbuck
 #2976

snip

Some smart trader said that you have to smell the technicals and taste the fundamentals.


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?

I know I would highly consider inscribing my wealth in the digital worldTM, for when things settles down.  Cool Cool Cool


ps: not saying me smart tho


I can see this one taking us to 246/247 (+3 BB on ~20 day VWMA). Wouldn't be surprised though if it kind of fizzles out around there.


fizzlinnnn ^^
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June 15, 2015, 10:23:27 PM
 #2977


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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June 16, 2015, 01:20:15 PM
 #2978

Daily sma20 retest. Nothing more so far. According to weekly adx, trend only initializing.

Now sma20 & sma50 has been broken through. Any interesting change ongoing?
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June 16, 2015, 02:01:29 PM
 #2979


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

Are you aware how much a new car depreciates in the first month of ownership? If yes, then your post was sarcastic.
Greeks may turn to precious metals instead. Or gems, or whatever can be bought in Greece and sold for euros later.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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June 16, 2015, 02:16:01 PM
 #2980


We are still in exciting times.. and Greeks could spark things off.
From a macro view, this situation is unseen/unreal.
The whole banking system is at a ATH of deceit and theft. And it's hitching.

So what if a greek bail in (vs bank runs vs end of cash) results in people seeking ways to just secure their wealth - not even making transactions.

What would the smart money (Grin not even the smart traders Grin) do when the dominos irremediably rolls over?



From what I have been reading, Greeks have been buying luxury (ironically German) cars for months now in anticipation of capital controls - drive across border, sell for Euros as needed. I am not sure how much capital is left to flee from Greece TBH.

That said, the contagion potential is very real ... BUY AUDI AND BMW !!!

Are you aware how much a new car depreciates in the first month of ownership? If yes, then your post was sarcastic.
Greeks may turn to precious metals instead. Or gems, or whatever can be bought in Greece and sold for euros later.

No, I am completely unaware how much cars depereciate  Roll Eyes

This has not been stopping Greeks from buying them, as hypothesised here, to evade upcoming capital controls. I am not talking about what they might do, I am talking about what they have already been doing for months.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11599513/The-real-sign-that-Greeces-financial-turmoil-is-getting-worse.html

As I said, I doubt there is very much capital left in Greece to actually flee. It's not current events are actually a surprise is it ... this has to be the slowest, most drawn out train-wreck in recent history.

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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