Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

2y chart of copper, who the hell needs copper?  let alone FCX:

[1713562194]

1713562194

[1713562194]

1713562194

[1713562194]

1713562194

[cypherdoc]

just to highlight, FCX, the biggest copper mine in the world, let alone for other metals, down a whopping -11.07% today alone:



RIP inflation.  it's DEFLATION, that sweet smell (or rancid).

[smoothie]

2y chart of copper, who the hell needs copper?  let alone FCX:

No one needs copper or other commodities, just fiat paper or digital toilet paper.

[cypherdoc]

i swear, the Bank of Greece is dead, dead, frickin dead.  and for years now:

[cypherdoc]

here's the 10 yr weekly:

[digitaltangible]

There is hope. Gold is opening up trades and new avenues for Bitcoin demand.

Our latest blog post: Three Reasons Why Physical Gold and Bitcoin Trading Beats the USD Exchanges

http://research.digitaltangibletrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/bitcoin_capitulation.png

Cheers,
DigitalTangible Team

[User705]

Dow -350

are you sure you want to sell BTC?

Why not.  With previous high broken through and badly who knows where the real bottom lies.  It not like anyone will be selling their houses to buy back BTC just yet or ever.  With most selling done in the high 100s or 1000s the smart entry point for BTC is likely lower.  And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.  But it appears we are getting closer.

[cbeast]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

[cypherdoc]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

They aren't but they are waiting/hoping with baited breath that it fails or gets hacked. Trouble is, the price right now is merely exposing fear and emotion while ignoring that it has not failed or been hacked.  THAT is bad news for bears.  We're very close to a major buying point. Leveraged longs are starting to build on Bitfinex. 

[User705]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

Yep my mistake.  There is no Winkelvoss coin etf.  No syndicates.  No Pantera.  No Second Market.  No BIT.  No Tim Draper.  And of course all those people with money and connections have no influence at exchanges.  The regular stock market is full of fail to deliver and shorts without actual borrowed shares.  But that could never happen to bitcoin.  You're right. 

[cbeast]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

Yep my mistake.  There is no Winkelvoss coin etf.  No syndicates.  No Pantera.  No Second Market.  No BIT.  No Tim Draper.  And of course all those people with money and connections have no influence at exchanges.  The regular stock market is full of fail to deliver and shorts without actual borrowed shares.  But that could never happen to bitcoin.  You're right. 

Meh, this is peanuts to them. Bitcoin trading should be conducted by licensed brokers on regulated exchanges. The bitcoins on exchanges should be whitelisted by regions and only transferable in and out of exchanges by brokers. Of course they can be mixed outside of exchanges. I think that would end wild speculation and give markets a chance to cool down. If you want to gamble bitcoins, casinos would be more fun than getting goxxed.

[NewLiberty]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

Yep my mistake.  There is no Winkelvoss coin etf.  No syndicates.  No Pantera.  No Second Market.  No BIT.  No Tim Draper.  And of course all those people with money and connections have no influence at exchanges.  The regular stock market is full of fail to deliver and shorts without actual borrowed shares.  But that could never happen to bitcoin.  You're right. 

Meh, this is peanuts to them. Bitcoin trading should be conducted by licensed brokers on regulated exchanges. The bitcoins on exchanges should be whitelisted by regions and only transferable in and out of exchanges by brokers. Of course they can be mixed outside of exchanges. I think that would end wild speculation and give markets a chance to cool down. If you want to gamble bitcoins, casinos would be more fun than getting goxxed.

Bitcoin trading should be conducted by anyone that wants to do so.  There is a rumor it is a peer to peer technology.  Exchange not required.

[rpietila]

Dow -350

are you sure you want to sell BTC?

Why not.  With previous high broken through and badly who knows where the real bottom lies.  It not like anyone will be selling their houses to buy back BTC just yet or ever.  With most selling done in the high 100s or 1000s the smart entry point for BTC is likely lower.  And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.  But it appears we are getting closer.

Well, since you ask, I just happened to do it a while ago:

Bitcoiners want to get billionaires quick with their little scheme, call noobs that are trying to get out of the mess late "greedy".

It is no secret that I sold some at $675 in 2013. The next exit zone starts earliest at $3,000, probably higher.

It is no greed to sell at a bottom, it is just stupid. Stuff is as valuable as a year ago (or more, due to more adoption, etc.), yet 75% cheaper. This is a game and you are offered 4 times better odds than last time when you took them. Instead of taking them now, or holding, you decide to fold.

If anyone becomes a billionaire with bitcoin, he deserves it. So many chances of folding were offered but he held on.

But where is you buy zone?  At what price point would you consider selling the castle to load up on BTC?  Or perhaps you wouldn't ever?  You mentioned most of the last bubble selling was in the high 100s, close to 1000 so assuming that a buyback price point would have to be 10x - 20x lower for most who cashed out to buy back at least same amount or more the bottom is still lower.

It depends what conversion ratio I get for the castle. They don't move very easily and mine could be appraised to half of what I paid for, or twice that. When I bought it, the plan was "<300 sell it, >3000 repair it, else hold it".

If I get the same that I invested, it's already looking good. More than 3 times increase in bitcoins in one year. (The secondary effect is that BTC price would go to >300 if bought at market).

So let's make it official: I'll sell the "bitcoin castle" to a serious buyer, asking price € 1.1 million, my cost so far.

These kind of things make the rational player conclude that BTC is oversold. If a person in my position needs to buy more, instead of just living with the previous gains, everyone else should be buying already.

Also transactions at an ATH.

The whole 2014 is funny, a year of massive increase/improvement in everything. But price development somewhat sad. Reminds me of 2012.

 

[cbeast]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

Yep my mistake.  There is no Winkelvoss coin etf.  No syndicates.  No Pantera.  No Second Market.  No BIT.  No Tim Draper.  And of course all those people with money and connections have no influence at exchanges.  The regular stock market is full of fail to deliver and shorts without actual borrowed shares.  But that could never happen to bitcoin.  You're right. 

Meh, this is peanuts to them. Bitcoin trading should be conducted by licensed brokers on regulated exchanges. The bitcoins on exchanges should be whitelisted by regions and only transferable in and out of exchanges by brokers. Of course they can be mixed outside of exchanges. I think that would end wild speculation and give markets a chance to cool down. If you want to gamble bitcoins, casinos would be more fun than getting goxxed.

Bitcoin trading should be conducted by anyone that wants to do so.  There is a rumor it is a peer to peer technology.  Exchange not required.

That's fine, but it isn't what I'm talking about. Gox already proved that.

[silverbox]

The last few times bitcoin wasn't profitable to mine on standard mining gear of that era @ electric cost of 0.10 USD/Kwh.  hmm  bottoms or tops?

Its starting to feel like $2 in late 2011 or $10ish in late 2012..

Back up the Truck at anything under $150.

[rpietila]

Yes, if it did not become clear, all my non-crypto assets are for sale at a discount, and they will be converted to BTC if trades happen. Or buy directly for BTC. This seems like the rational thing to do, "portfolio balancing" since the share of BTC has gone down a lot, at the same time its EV can be seen even better than before.

[cypherdoc]

The last few times bitcoin wasn't profitable to mine on standard mining gear of that era @ electric cost of 0.10 USD/Kwh.  hmm  bottoms or tops?

Its starting to feel like $2 in late 2011 or $10ish in late 2012..

Back up the Truck at anything under $150.

i agree

[cypherdoc]

warning for Bitcoin Bears. 

Gold looks to be weakening and is threatening to roll over:



silver has really gone nowhere and can't even get up to resistance:



if they do roll here Bears, look the hell out.

[JorgeStolfi]

And that assumes an honest market which now that Wall Street is involved is anybodies guess.

Wait, what?!? How is Wall Street involved in Bitcoin?

Yep my mistake.  There is no Winkelvoss coin etf.  No syndicates.  No Pantera.  No Second Market.  No BIT.  No Tim Draper.  And of course all those people with money and connections have no influence at exchanges.  The regular stock market is full of fail to deliver and shorts without actual borrowed shares.  But that could never happen to bitcoin.  You're right. 

The Winkelvoss COIN ETF is only a request to the SEC so far.  Approval is by no means guaranteed.

The syndicates for the USMS auctions grouped small investors who could not afford to buy 2000 BTC by themselves.  That is not Wall Street.

Pantera is a venture capital firm, that provides investments on the order of 10 million dollars to startup firms that may or may not prosper.

SecondMarket is a financial firm that specializes in non-standard instruments, such as pre-IPO equities.  Its only involvements with bitcoins were the organization of syndicates for the USMS auctions (it collected 1% fee from the second one) and the BIT fund.

SecondMarket's BIT fund is an investment fund backed by bitcoins, that is not openly traded; clients buy shares from the BIT management company (a subsidiary of SecondMarket), and can withdraw only by selling those shares back to the company.  It owns ~135'000 BTC that are in theory deposited by its clients  It has collected maybe 60 million dollars of since Sep/2013, but since the nominal price of its shares is tied to that of BTC, its assets are now worth only ~25 million USD.  Since Oct/2104 it has suspended redemptions (withdrawals).

Pantera has a similar bitcoin fund, PBP, but I don't know its numbers.  There are a few other bitcoin funds out there.  I doubt that they together got as much investment as SMBIT.

Tim Draper bought ~30'000 coins at ~600 USD/BTC, and another 2000 at ~350 USD/BTC, total ~19 million USD. 

All those amounts are small change by Wall Street standards.  One million dollars is the price of a median house in many US or European cities. 

[tvbcof]

btw, tvbcof never called the bottom @1.98 in 2011 like he pretends.  he's free to provide some links for proof but all i recall was some vague reference.

I never call tops, bottoms, or prices.  The few times I've come close, I always qualify it by stating that it's just a total guess.  I said that my guesstimate of this recent bottom would be in the $250-ish range and I doubted seriously a selling opportunity very soon and hoped to get one in 2015 if we are lucky.

Some people try to call prices with idiot wave analysis and other snake oil, and plenty of others are fooled by these types.  This is no different than shamanism and witchcraft in some cultures...half the people in a society are below average after all, and it really does seem that Libertarians who are rife in this ecosystem are very primitive in their economic and strategic thought patterns and prone to be punked.  For a year now cypherdoc has been saying it's a good time to get rid of whatever one has (especially gold) and buy more BTC.  What a clown. 

I have only been active in buying or selling at two times in the last 4.5 years.  Both times I've made mention of what I am doing and why.  Many other times I have mentioned what I did and why.  I was buying in the last half of 2011 and said at the time that I was going to double-down once more at $1.60-ish if we get there IIRC.  Maybe it was $140-ish.  We didn't get there and the only exchange I had some confidence in (Tradehill) closed it's doors (and made me whole in both BTC and USD when they did.)  I was selling a not insignificant portion of my position at the end of 2013 and start of 2014.  At all other times I've been sitting on my hands.

I'm a strategic system analysis type of person.  Since I think that trading is stupid unless one is a pro (which very few people here are, and certainly not cypherdoc) I don't take very many actions and simply play my macro level system analysis.  I've been gracious enough to share my insights over the last 4.5 years.

We are at a critical juncture in Bitcoin-land where it either survives by understanding it's true potential value as a reserve currency or continues down the dead-end road to it's doom trying to be an exchange currency.  What I do with the remainder of my hoard and when depends a lot on this struggle.  The formation of Blockstream is one of the most significant things to happen in the time I've been involved with Bitcoin and it gives me a lot of hope.