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pent
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September 25, 2011, 06:37:52 PM |
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Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.
Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.
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In order to get the maximum amount of activity points possible, you just need to post once per day on average. Skipping days is OK as long as you maintain the average.
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 12:47:49 AM |
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Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.
Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.
Assertions lacking evidence! Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed |
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zby
Legendary
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Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
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September 26, 2011, 05:10:23 AM |
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Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.
Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.
Assertions lacking evidence! Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_DestroyedThat number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all. |
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netrin
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
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September 26, 2011, 05:15:16 AM |
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I'm not convinced 'days destroyed' paints a positive picture. The biggest peak since June was late August about the time of a 30% sell off on the markets. Perhaps dormant coins had been awoken from hibernation only to be dumped on an exchange. This week's 'days destroyed' look a bit like April. |
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 05:49:20 AM |
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That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.
How do you figure that? Perhaps dormant coins had been awoken from hibernation only to be dumped on an exchange. This week's 'days destroyed' look a bit like April.
Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps. |
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netrin
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
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September 26, 2011, 06:51:56 AM |
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BiterTea, it happens to be a hypothesis backed by data. Transaction volume is low since June.
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nmat
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September 26, 2011, 06:56:50 AM |
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So... Since you are using the poll results as a contrary indicator, should I vote down if I think the price goes up? But if I think it goes up, it will probably go down so if I vote down it will go down, but then again it should go up....  I gotta go to sleep. |
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pent
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September 26, 2011, 08:30:18 AM |
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Sorry, have no time for evidence, its my own feeling, as I browse blockexplorer and mtgox every day. July and August were reacher for avg transactions amount per day. Also MtGox trades are also significantly depressed comparing to summer time and going slower and slower. I think "Trough of Disillusionment" phase of bitcoin HIPE Cycle is not reached yet. I thought it will be in 6-9 area, but now i see the bottom is ahead. Only my IMHO based on being part of market. This not makes me happy as i have some investments. Bitcoin needs some buisnesses, restricted by VISA, to be involved. For example if major gambling network owners decide to attach bitcoin as secondary or tertiary billing option, this will bring turnover to bitcoin market and its rate will significantly increase. |
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 11:28:41 AM |
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Sorry, have no time for evidence, its my own feeling, as I browse blockexplorer and mtgox every day. July and August were reacher for avg transactions amount per day. Also MtGox trades are also significantly depressed comparing to summer time and going slower and slower. I think "Trough of Disillusionment" phase of bitcoin HIPE Cycle is not reached yet. I thought it will be in 6-9 area, but now i see the bottom is ahead. Only my IMHO based on being part of market. This not makes me happy as i have some investments. Bitcoin needs some buisnesses, restricted by VISA, to be involved. For example if major gambling network owners decide to attach bitcoin as secondary or tertiary billing option, this will bring turnover to bitcoin market and its rate will significantly increase. Ah. I forgot that the purpose of Bitcoin is for its value in dollars to rise in order to make you money. |
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pent
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September 26, 2011, 03:16:52 PM |
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Ah. I forgot that the purpose of Bitcoin is for its value in dollars to rise in order to make you money.
so what? |
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fivebells
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September 26, 2011, 04:28:42 PM |
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So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 05:19:34 PM |
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So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?
Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour. |
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pent
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September 26, 2011, 05:22:06 PM |
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Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.
I can do the same with Webmoney or Paxum. And I dont care about 0.8% commission. So what? |
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BitterTea
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September 26, 2011, 06:10:12 PM |
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Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour.
I can do the same with Webmoney or Paxum. And I dont care about 0.8% commission. So what? If you're not worried about centralized services failing, or central banks inflating away the value of the underlying money, then right now Bitcoin may not have any huge benefits for you. In the future though, additional transaction types could provide interesting use cases. But this is really off topic... |
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julz
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
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September 26, 2011, 11:19:37 PM |
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So what's it good for/why will demand for BTC increase in the future?
Really? I can send Bitcoin to anyone on the internet, without knowing any personal details about them, and they will receive it in a few seconds. This costs me between 0 and 0.0005 BTC currently. They can be confident that the transaction is irreversible after about an hour. Sending money 'without knowing any personal details about them' isn't exactly a big plus for me.. *receiving* money without knowing any personal details about them could be handy sometimes though. |
@electricwings BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
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fivebells
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September 27, 2011, 12:33:13 AM |
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This is extremely interesting. What is missing from the bitcoin protocol that prevents implementing it as described? |
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BitterTea
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September 27, 2011, 02:23:17 AM |
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This is extremely interesting. What is missing from the bitcoin protocol that prevents implementing it as described? I think it's that the script operations other than those necessary for regular transactions are disabled in the client for security reasons. |
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fivebells
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September 27, 2011, 02:33:22 AM |
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I think it's that the script operations other than those necessary for regular transactions are disabled in the client for security reasons.
Thanks. This is very exciting. |
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S3052 (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
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September 29, 2011, 05:53:33 AM |
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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Public Update released: http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com |
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