Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[bbxx]

Hi everybody,

We are Swedish miners that are producing our own ASIC miners to strengthen the market and avoid monopoly.
Our company kncminer is pleased to announce the opening of a brand new web shop dedicated to the online sale of Bitcoin hardware to the international community, www.kncminer.com.

A lot of scam sites are appearing every day and we are not one of them, therefore we will not take any orders and are only registering interest.

We will in the upcoming weeks opening our order book to allow the purchase of our first set of ASIC miners. They are in the early stages of development now
and will be ready in the summer of 2013 (yes in just a few months)
Register an account now it’s completely free and if you subscribe to our newsletter we will alert you the moment we open the order books for entry and other information around the ASIC products.
If you have any questions we will be happy to answer them.

Happy mining

ok summer is ending and you dont have chips
bfl case

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[jmw74]

knc miners are not profitable. deal with it.

How? Prove it. Figures. You're spreading fud. The genesis block calc has so many more functions than the default most of the newbies in this forum are concentrating on (or those currently attempting to scare people).

For the default calculations to transpire over time the network would have to continuously double in a linear fashion time and time again. Impossible. Never going to happen.

Say 3,000 units are shipped in Oct, that would require 6,000 in November, the 12,000 in December, then 24,000 come Jan, 48,000 in February, 96,000 in March, 192,000 units delivered in April, 384,000 units in may, 768,000 units in June.

Can you honestly see this as even remotely realistic?!? It's ridiculous.

Knc, and whoever else are never going to manufacture and sell that many devices. Sure you can 'scale production' to a few thousand a month, and i've chosen 3,000 as an achievable figure, but the doubling, and doubling, and doubling. There's some seriously naive people in this forum.

I actually wrote to the Genesis Block and asked them to address this. I suggested they allow us to enter achievable figures of prouction for various manufacturers, and the dates by which those products are likely to be introduced to give more realistic scenarios, which they like, as it's the most sensible way to approach this, and they agreed, they like the idea.

In the mean time there's a constant increase per month option (MM) which can be used instead of the nutty (%) that is there by default. I may even write up a tutorial as people seem reluctant to play with the calc as it's quite useful if you know how to use it properly, which apparently a significant percentage of this forum can't. It's got to the point where it's just laughable and it's being used purposely to scare away small miners, which in turn will effect the distribution of the network. It's just beyond comprehension how the majority of people in this forum think a compounded increase in network harhrate is feasible over the long term!!

Certainly in this period of transition as GPU farms dies out and ASICs are introduced there are solid doubles of network over time, but if you think KnC, or Cointerra will be able to manufacture in excess of 5,000 units a month you're a complete idiot.

Oh, the innocent, unbridled optimism of the little ones!  It melts my black little heart and microwaves it on "low" for 5 minutes.
Then i remember how many *other* ASIC companies are coming to our party, each with shitty table manners, to hoover up our delicious caek.

TL;DR:  With all the pre-order schemes maturing just around the same time, mining will be unprofitable.  For just about everyone.  Because preorder.

If only it were as simple as that.  If mining companies' prices are too high for anyone to see ROI, eventually that will result in no one ordering them.  So then the difficulty levels off and it becomes profitable again.  It's not a linear system, and it's much more difficult to predict profitability than you claim.

Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

[600watt]

yeah but preordes were placed and...

AVALON chips, clones - clients are doomed
90% bfl customers are doomed
75% KNC miners will be not profitable for sure
october bitfury units will not make roi in 2 years
VNC, hashfast, monarch, cointerra preorders were placed unvisely too.

So basically what you're saying is that everyone will unprofitable? So they will turn off their miners?

So in about a year's time, I can start CPU mining again? Awesome.

 

unprofitable i mean not even with electricy cost... but more
when your investment is 5000$
and you are getting 5$ per month after costs
you will need 10 years of mining

ok your saturn will make roi in next 20 years if you order today.
is it profitable for you ?

babysiting miner, hear loud and changing fans/paste for next 1000 weeks ?

for a jupiter to make 5 $ per month difficulty would need to reach 20 000 mio.
that is 300 x more then the current difficulty.

[jmw74]

Mining manufacturers in the future - well I see a hard future for them. Imagine trying to convince people to buy your 50th/s for $1000 with ROI in 5 years.

No-one is going to buy it.

The Future = difficulty will be at just above even of electricity costs. So the real winners in the future are people who can afford low electricity rates and own an efficient-low priced-high spec miner.

That does seem like what the endgame will be.

Mining will be done only by those with low (or no) electrical cost.  However that isn't so rare.  Most of the world population needs to heat their house in the winter, so running a miner is low or no cost because you need the heat anyway.  It just depends on what the other sources of heat are in the house.  And of course, running a miner in the summer would cost double the electricity - the consumption of the miner itself, plus the extra load on the air conditioner to remove the waste heat.

[pupsudio]

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

[jmw74]

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

[bbxx]

yeah but preordes were placed and...

AVALON chips, clones - clients are doomed
90% bfl customers are doomed
75% KNC miners will be not profitable for sure
october bitfury units will not make roi in 2 years
VNC, hashfast, monarch, cointerra preorders were placed unvisely too.

So basically what you're saying is that everyone will unprofitable? So they will turn off their miners?

So in about a year's time, I can start CPU mining again? Awesome.

 

unprofitable i mean not even with electricy cost... but more
when your investment is 5000$
and you are getting 5$ per month after costs
you will need 10 years of mining

ok your saturn will make roi in next 20 years if you order today.
is it profitable for you ?

babysiting miner, hear loud and changing fans/paste for next 1000 weeks ?

for a jupiter to make 5 $ per month difficulty would need to reach 20 000 mio.
that is 300 x more then the current difficulty.

no.
10 000 mio
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/3ca7c693b8
according to that, about may 2014

ok say that mining calculator is bullshit

[crumbs]

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

[plasmoske]

Personally I'd calculate KNC if it's profitable or not by $ not BTC. Since it was purchased by fiat and not bitcoins (paypal/bank transfer etc).

[pupsudio]

I kind of feel like all this mining hardware is going to pay off, in USD, not so much in btc. Not even close in terms of bitcoins, but it will be huge to the exchange rate.

That makes no sense.  If it doesn't pay off in bitcoins, then you're better off buying bitcoins instead of a miner.

Exactly. I think all the preordered mining equipment is going to be used for mining. nobody will ever make back the same amount of bitcoins as they paid, but people won't sell their bitcoins for less than it cost them to mine them.

Double the price of bitcoins though, and you doubled the profitability of mining. A miner that cost 70btc @ $100/btc will only cost 35btc @ $200/btc, meaning you only have to mine half as much to break even.

I think there are going to be a few doublings over the next few months.

[pupsudio]

Personally I'd calculate KNC if it's profitable or not by $ not BTC. Since it was purchased by fiat and not bitcoins (paypal/bank transfer etc).

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

[plasmoske]

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

KNC does bank transfer refunds

At current value. Not your original amount of bitcoins.

They don't hold any bitcoins or at least I don't think so.

All they got are fiat. Bitpay > Fiat > KNC

[crumbs]

...
It is bullshit, 10,000,000,000 Difficulty is around 76/PH or 126 time more hashrate than is there today.

To put this in perspective that is 190,000 Jupiters sold - $950,000,000 at $5,000/each.

Do you see this being realistic?

Let's assume by May 2014 the $/GH is around $3.

That makes the Jupiters $1200/each for 400GH - 190,000 x $1,200 = $228,000,000

Do you see THAT even being realistic?

You must be retarded if you think $228,000,000 at a MINIMUM is going to be spent from now until May 2014 on Hashrate

BG, when you make these projections, you're making a bunch of assumptions that are unjustified -- $/GH/s, and extrapolations on miner costs.  Don't forget, ASIC companies self-mine.  You're also assuming ASIC tech to be at its zenith now -- that's not the case.  

[jmw74]

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

[pupsudio]

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

KNC does bank transfer refunds

At current value. Not your original amount of bitcoins.

They don't hold any bitcoins or at least I don't think so.

All they got are fiat. Bitpay > Fiat > KNC

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.

[600watt]

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

KNC does bank transfer refunds

At current value. Not your original amount of bitcoins.

They don't hold any bitcoins or at least I don't think so.

All they got are fiat. Bitpay > Fiat > KNC

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.

see: doomed to mine... 

[plasmoske]

What the hell is a bank transfer refund? How long do they take? How much do they cost? Then you have to get that money back into an exchange, pay the exchange fee again.

Well I'm from Australia. I'm using slang. Well the international wording for it would be refund via international bank wire.

They can take anywhere from 3 to 10 days. Depends on your bank. Free I'd imagine. Email them. They are actually pretty fast to reply.

Depends what currency they sent. I'm assuming USD since miners were paid by USD.

[jmw74]

Personally I'd calculate KNC if it's profitable or not by $ not BTC. Since it was purchased by fiat and not bitcoins (paypal/bank transfer etc).

Too bad for all the suckers who paid in bitcoins though, eh? Especially since you can't get a bitcoin refund.

It doesn't really matter how you pay.  If you sell bitcoins and then pay with paypal, it's the same as if you used bitpay (at least in terms of your own balance sheet).

Using btc to buy a miner is a hedge against btc prices temporarily dropping.  If prices drop, mining becomes easier, so you can recover more bitcoins.  Personally I spent about 15% of my btc on mining equip for this purpose.  At this point it's not looking like a winning bet, but there's plenty of ways it could turn around.

[crumbs]

...
Do you understand what pre-order means?  
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense.  You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb.  If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?  

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh?  Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what?  Never get ROI?  Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict.  Do you want to address that or not?

No.  My point is people will continue to mine as long as the price of BTC is greater than the cost of electricity burned to produce them.  This doesn't suggest anything close to ROI.
My secondary point:  I'm willing to answer your questions, no matter how silly they are.  What would you like me to address, now?

Ok that is at least a legitimate point, but one I already knew.  Yes, miners will be plugged in as long as they produce more btc than they cost to run - it doesn't matter how much the owner paid for the miner.  But it doesn't make ROI any more predictable.  

The reason I originally gave still holds.  If (as you say), nearly everyone who mines takes a loss, it won't take long for everyone to realize this is happening.  You don't have to wait until the miner is shut off to know if it will see ROI.  It's clear pretty soon after receiving it (2 months, max?), if not much sooner.  Heck, some people get ROI after a few weeks, others know they will never get ROI even before they receive it.

So, if, (as you say), nearly everyone is taking a loss, after max two months, everyone will know that the mining equipment pricing is too high and stop ordering them.  Can you see the feedback loop here?  Too high prices -> unprofitable -> reduced sales -> reduced difficulty -> lower prices -> profitable -> increased sales -> increased difficulty, etc.

What i'm pointing to is *pre-orders break the feedback loop*.  The miners that will be coming online in the predictable future are already bought & paid for.  There is no feedback loop involved -- no governor, the buyers are locked in.  All the way into next year.  The only choice is unloading the gear to a greater fool, or mining as long as possible to recoup some of the wasted money.  The difficulty will keep going up as more pre-orders are built & put online.
Something like that.

[plasmoske]

Feedback only works when it's truly delay incoming. With mining, the miner operators (you) have a choice whether or not you want to put your miner online.

Pre-ordering a miner does not guaranteed that miner will be putting it up online. Period.

If the electricity per day costs $4 and you're only earn $3, would you do it? I can see some people doing that for a while but not for a long time.

In the long run, it's the 28nm who are the winners.

And yes I'm aware of the electricity rate <> mining revenue. That point isn't here yet and won't be for a while.

Most of the negativity here are stemming from people looking at the calculators. They're very flawed and misleading.