[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]

[conspirosphere.tk]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

[1714181910]

1714181910

[1714181910]

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[1714181910]

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[organofcorti]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

[mdude77]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

[organofcorti]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.

[mdude77]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.

The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove.

M

[organofcorti]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

He's not the only one who has a hard time understanding the dot chart.  I like the way Ozcoin does it, very clear and shows performance vs luck.  I struggle every time I look at Bitminter's chart and I'm never sure I see anything useful in it.

M

It's a  toss up between usability an misinterpretability.  BitMinter's stats can't be misinterpreted but there's a minimum of knowledge you need (basic uni level stats) before you can understand it.

Ozcoin's  charts are more intuitively understandable, but much more easily misinterpreted to mean something that they don't since there's no way to know if a long round is unusually long or not.

Edit: The reason you don't "see anything useful" is probably because the "luck" has not been at all unusual for BitMinter. You'd see something useful if something unusual was happening.

The only thing I remember from statistics is they can be made to prove whatever you want to prove.

M

Just as well we're talking about probability and not statistics

[GuiltySpark343]

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

[Isokivi]

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

https://bitminter.com/blocks

Luck has been bad for the past day, as usual variance.

[edit]

With current hashrate of 5910140Mhps and difficulty of 10076292.8834

Bitminter should hit just under 12 blocks a day on average.

[Turbor]

Why is my payout so low?

I'm doing about 2 GH/s, and with other pools I have earned about 0.1 to 0.12 BTC/day. But I mined for a whole day on BitMinter and only earned 0.036 BTC.

Any ideas why so little earned?

Just give it some time.

[DrHaribo]

There's a lot of support requests lately from newbies and ex-PPS miners who mined 12 or 24 hours on BitMinter and were horrified by low payouts. Some even think I am scamming them.

Short version: BitMinter pays you much more than most pools in the long run, but there may be some days with low payouts and payouts are delayed several hours after you do some work.

Long explanation:

DELAY: On BitMinter your work gets paid when we find new blocks as long as it is in one of the 10 latest shifts. Since 10 shifts take about 7.5 hours currently, that's how long it takes for your work to be fully paid. If you also turned off the prepay perk then you must wait for the blocks to be confirmed as well before you get income from them. That takes about 20 hours.

VARIANCE: In addition to this there is variance when mining with a PPLNS reward system. This means you get high payouts on a lucky day (when we find many blocks) and low payouts on an unlucky day.

BOTTOM LINE: Over time you will make more money mining with 1% fee on BitMinter than 5% fee on a PPS pool. If the occassional low payout makes you nervous then you may want to go with a PPS pool, even if you lose a lot of money in the long run. But remember that PPS pools in general don't pay out transaction fees, so you lose 1% to 2% more. Most don't have namecoins, so you lose over 8% there too (with current namecoin prices).

What looks like a 5% fee is then in reality a 15% fee. That is NOT better pay than BitMinter.

There's 3 reasons to choose a 15% fee over a 1% fee:
1. You desperately need the payout very quickly
2. You don't want money
3. You don't understand how the reward systems work

If it is #1 or #2 then fine. But please don't switch to a 15% fee pool because you don't yet understand what's going on.

If you thought you were shocked at the payouts when you didn't realize there's a delay, imagine my surprise at seeing miners pay a 15% fee with a big smile on their face while they tell me that my payouts suck. It boggles the mind.

[willphase]

Most don't have namecoins, so you lose over 8% there too (with current namecoin prices).

In fact, closer to 11% - source.

Will

[GuiltySpark343]

Where is a reputable place to exchange Namecoin for BTC or fiat?

[Epoch]

Where is a reputable place to exchange Namecoin for BTC or fiat?

https://btc-e.com/

[LazyOtto]

Where is a reputable place to exchange Namecoin for BTC or fiat?

https://btc-e.com/

I have used btc-e.com to convert NMC to BTC.

[juhakall]

I can only agree with what DrHaribo explained above. Shift-based PPLNS is a very good payout method that is fair (hopping-proof) and has no risk for the pool operator. Because variance is experienced by users, not by the pool operator, DrHaribo can keep the fee very low. The method is also very easy to understand, compared to DGM. To be honest, I haven't looked into the newer methods with capped payouts, backpay or whatever. PPLNS works very well, and I've yet to hear anyone point out an actual flaw in it, only complaints that stem from misunderstanding.

[organofcorti]

......and I've yet to hear anyone point out an actual flaw in it, only complaints that stem from misunderstanding.

PPLNS has no vowels in it. That's a flaw from my point of view. Makes it hard to pronounce. It's a flaw all reward methods (apart from PoT) seem to have, CPPSRB being the worst offender.

[juhakall]

PPLNS has no vowels in it. That's a flaw from my point of view. Makes it hard to pronounce. It's a flaw all reward methods (apart from PoT) seem to have, CPPSRB being the worst offender.

Oh, now I see why the proportional method still has some support.

[Newar]

I would like some numbers about the pool's luck (in the last day/week/long term/current block), or a line of the actual luck compared with the expected instead of all those dots.

A line of actual luck won't tell you anything unless you can compare it to something - for example a confidence interval of likely "luck" values. For the dots, if they look widely distributed and not bunched up the top or the bottom, then that's normal "luck".

The only accurate way to measure "luck" over a period of time to to work out the negative binomial CDF for the combined shares submitted for the combined blocks solved. Using that measure, BitMinter's weekly "luck" over the last months hasn't been outside the expected range.

How about an indicator on the side of the chart that would show the average of the dots? Or an average line?

[organofcorti]

PPLNS has no vowels in it. That's a flaw from my point of view. Makes it hard to pronounce. It's a flaw all reward methods (apart from PoT) seem to have, CPPSRB being the worst offender.

Oh, now I see why the proportional method still has some support.

Ah, I forgot about prop. And of course there's prop score, too. Why do you think people mine at Slush's pool? They can pronounce the reward method.

[matt4054]

Could anyone with more PPLNS experience than me tell us about how unlucky the pool has been over the last few days? Is this usual variance or not, and should we expect the "actual" rewards graph line to cross the "expected" line anytime soon?

I know about the theory behind PPLNS and why it should compensate naturally over time, I'm just trying to match theory and practice here

Thanks for your feedback.