Analysis

[Xiaoxiao]

Found weekly sma200 (195 bars actually, close to maturity). And this line is what price hit last 5 months. If it break down - imagine resistance it will become  

So what's the consensus Luc? 

[lebing]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

[hdbuck]

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

yep its confirmed..

QE4 Arrives: Mystery Drone Rains Money On People In Michigan, Cash-Grabbing Frenzy Ensues
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-27/qe4-arrives-mystery-drone-rains-money-people-michigan-cash-grabbing-frenzy-ensues

[molecular]

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

yep its confirmed..

QE4 Arrives: Mystery Drone Rains Money On People In Michigan, Cash-Grabbing Frenzy Ensues
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-27/qe4-arrives-mystery-drone-rains-money-people-michigan-cash-grabbing-frenzy-ensues

meanwhile the 'IBM Cloud' rains bitcoins on south america:


(click image for IBMs ad video)

[Wandererfromthenorth]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

[RyNinDaCleM]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

That actually correlates quite well

[hdbuck]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

That actually correlates quite well

so people sells bitcoin to buy dollar, the next big thing. ^^

imho it is indeed very likely that we will witness a rising of the dollar, probably in a last attempt at staking the most value the US can before the debt crisis and some final fireworks. exciting.

[Afrikoin]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

2 orange lines above and below BTC price? What are they?

[RyNinDaCleM]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

2 orange lines above and below BTC price? What are they?

Oil and DBC

[Afrikoin]

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.

[Fabrizio89]

Analysis is everyone sold already, price is kept up by people buying on margin and overleveraging without a real support structure below them. The average bitcoiner always looked bad at traders shorting his precious, but the real problem was done by those who overleveraged the shit out of this when there was no market demand. GJ everyone

And about the USD recession, banks are about to increase interest rates so gl with that.

[realdos]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

If this support finally fails and become a resistance, is the prediction you made about a long silent period of 1 - 1.5 years still valid? Or likely a much longer silent period is expected since this support is broken?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.

I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me.

[HeliKopterBen]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

That actually correlates quite well

It would be nice to see a correlation coefficient if someone wanted to figure it out.  Sometimes correlation can be a bit decieving when just eyeballing a chart.

[thefiniteidea]

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.

I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me.

Based on known sentiment and voting patterns, we will have a dovish FOMC well into 2016. I can't really see any bear market until 2017, 2018 because of that fact... but that's just me. It really all depends on unemployment figures, though. But even the way economies rely on labor incomes is radically changing, so it's hard to say with as much certainty anymore when the bull ends and bear begins (sounds like a good Radiohead song).

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-june-rate-hike-doubtful-1432144801
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102569651

More on the voting members of the Fed:
http://chandlerasset.com/blog/2014/09/rotation-at-the-fed-what-does-it-mean-for-policy-in-2015/
https://www.briefing.com/investor/our-view/the-big-picture/meet-your-new-fomc.htm

[oda.krell]

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

That actually correlates quite well

It would be nice to see a correlation coefficient if someone wanted to figure it out.  Sometimes correlation can be a bit decieving when just eyeballing a chart.

Here you go...

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

[inca]

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.

I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me.

Did they let up NIRP in Japan? How long can you wait?

[HeliKopterBen]

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

Thanks.  I'm sure it will negatively correlate until it doesnt.  I agree in that correlation may not be useful here.  The dollar has not gained 200x or had a 90% drop in the past few years like bitcoin has.

[Afrikoin]

"""But if I had to oversimplify with just one idea, it would be what I just alluded to a moment ago—that people are not confident in their future. They remember the financial crisis, and they worry. They hear about inequality through the Occupy Wall Street Movement and in many other places, and they worry where they will fall on the inequality spectrum in a decade or so. They observe the amazing but perhaps unsettling rise of information technology (IT), and they worry. As a result of all of this anxiety, they want to save more. But given the lack of options to invest in at a high return, they end up just bidding up the prices of existing assets. That, in turn, creates disappointment, more concern, and perhaps the feeling that they might be too late because of how much the market has already risen. But they still invest in it because of their anxieties."""

Robert Shiller on http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/robert-shiller-unlike-1929-time-everything-stocks-bonds-and-housing-overvalued

[seleme]

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

Thanks.  I'm sure it will negatively correlate until it doesnt.  I agree in that correlation may not be useful here.  The dollar has not gained 200x or had a 90% drop in the past few years like bitcoin has.

This! While Bitcoin was rallying from zero to 1200, dollar surely wasn't being dropped to stone age.