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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 918970 times)
afbitcoins
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April 27, 2015, 10:39:58 PM
 #2801

Heres support line showing why I think price unlikely to go below $180. Look at lower green trendline



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RyNinDaCleM
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April 27, 2015, 10:43:17 PM
 #2802

Heres support line showing why I think price unlikely to go below $180. Look at lower green trendline





Linear charts on $1000 price moves? Hmm

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April 27, 2015, 10:46:01 PM
 #2803

sorry to bother you again, can't remember , why  $30  ?

 Lips sealed

It's just a channel.... can you not see the blue lines in his post above explaining  Roll Eyes

yes my bad,  I do see it now. However (in my humble opinion) I think unlikely price will go far below $200, maybe $180 ish is possible..

Right, at that point it is up for individual interpretation as we watch things play out. He wasn't saying it was definite, just that the channel supports a move of that range.
Pick your bottom  Smiley

"In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king."
afbitcoins
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April 27, 2015, 10:50:54 PM
 #2804

Heres support line showing why I think price unlikely to go below $180. Look at lower green trendline





Linear charts on $1000 price moves? Hmm

I agree log chart gives a different perspective .



However both views lead me to think its unlikely bitcoin will fall very far below $200
afbitcoins
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April 28, 2015, 07:28:51 AM
 #2805

log chart with some lines on it.

 if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin.  Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge



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April 28, 2015, 08:46:52 AM
 #2806

log chart with some lines on it.

 if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin.  Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge


what is the basis of your dark green support line? I see it cuts across, but, where does it begin?



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afbitcoins
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April 28, 2015, 09:03:12 AM
 #2807

log chart with some lines on it.

 if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin.  Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge


what is the basis of your dark green support line? I see it cuts across, but, where does it begin?

Green line is showing rough area where support has been found I guess starting with the collapse of the April 2013 mini bubble.
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April 28, 2015, 11:47:48 AM
 #2808

log chart with some lines on it.

 if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin.  Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge


what is the basis of your dark green support line? I see it cuts across, but, where does it begin?

you can see the support by the times it comes near the line and then bounces off.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 28, 2015, 12:34:19 PM
 #2809

log chart with some lines on it.

 if we do fall to bottom of it that channel it is still unlikely price will drop below $100. However for reasons I've given elsewhere I suspect we already saw the bottom. I give zero chance of seeing $30 bitcoin.  Looking forward to bitcoin busting up through top of that channel which could be the start of something huge

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YXv0YJhe/



I also see it like this. We're constantly bouncing up from just above $200 and down as we come close to $300. Traders are making money on these bounces and feel happy, but they are trading just a small fraction of coins, that's why even if they all buy or sell at one time it's enough to move the price by about $100 up and down.

We'll eventually make another attempt at $300, but to break up we'll need a fiat injection. Right now there's just not enough of it on exchanges to push through.

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Tzupy
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April 28, 2015, 06:49:41 PM
 #2810

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
damiano
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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.


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April 28, 2015, 08:35:14 PM
 #2811

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

His charts are one of the better ones on tv

Chef Ramsay
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April 28, 2015, 09:26:28 PM
 #2812

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

His charts are one of the better ones on tv


This is fine by me as most are probably figuring something big is going to happen this or next week. Either let's get this thing moving up or let's go deep down south and reverse this bitch on high volume once and for all. Even tho I'm a mid and long term bull, I'd like to get my hands on some coins at flea market prices. Like, back the truck up kind of prices.
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April 28, 2015, 10:19:56 PM
 #2813

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

Interesting the psychology... at market tops everyone is blinded by greed and optimism and bears are laughed at; exactly the opposite is beginning to occur. Almost all charts are bearish and bulls are regularly jeered. Fear drives both sides of the market: fear of missing out during tops and fear of loss at bottoms. The market actually makes its turn once the fearful have either finished buying or finished selling.

The way I see it, we cannot expect the bear market to go on indefinitely just as bull markets eventually top out. This is what I do not understand about the numerous EW charts on Tradingview... Is there really a strong enough argument for sub $200 if the downside is so easy to predict? I mean, a monkey could be trained to trade a bear market; predicting trend continuations at Fib levels is not impressive to a serious chartist. What happens if we hit $100? More EW continuation charts showing single digits? Easy money, right? No, it is never that easy. What I want to see are chartists who can predict tops and bottoms, not simply follow the trend until everyone piles in, gets caught up in their own psychological web and gets spectacularly squeezed.
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April 28, 2015, 10:33:33 PM
Last edit: April 29, 2015, 03:33:21 PM by 8up
 #2814

This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/

Interesting the psychology... at market tops everyone is blinded by greed and optimism and bears are laughed at; exactly the opposite is beginning to occur. Almost all charts are bearish and bulls are regularly jeered. Fear drives both sides of the market: fear of missing out during tops and fear of loss at bottoms. The market actually makes its turn once the fearful have either finished buying or finished selling.

The way I see it, we cannot expect the bear market to go on indefinitely just as bull markets eventually top out. This is what I do not understand about the numerous EW charts on Tradingview... Is there really a strong enough argument for sub $200 if the downside is so easy to predict? I mean, a monkey could be trained to trade a bear market; predicting trend continuations at Fib levels is not impressive to a serious chartist. What happens if we hit $100? More EW continuation charts showing single digits? Easy money, right? No, it is never that easy. What I want to see are chartists who can predict tops and bottoms, not simply follow the trend until everyone piles in, gets caught up in their own psychological web and gets spectacularly squeezed.

Appreciate your clear perspective. Not only will you find mostly bearish charts on tradingview and in this forum. But even better, you read these analyses from the most creditable people in the community with a big fellowship. At one point in time (I think we might be there already) everybody finished positioning on the "right" side. It is then up to you, finding out that the boat you are sitting in, is already full. I am suspecting a long stabilization period as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Always wrong until not.
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April 29, 2015, 05:49:26 AM
 #2815

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 29, 2015, 10:24:07 AM
 #2816

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

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Fatman3001
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April 29, 2015, 01:08:10 PM
 #2817

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

That's "Bitcoin Stable"

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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April 29, 2015, 03:07:14 PM
 #2818

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

That's "Bitcoin Stable"

^^

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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April 29, 2015, 05:28:55 PM
 #2819

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out.  Cheesy

Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.
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April 29, 2015, 05:34:25 PM
 #2820

I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.

Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.

Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.

There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.

Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out.  Cheesy

Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.

hedging risk is so 2013.

If anything, 2015 is about getting risky.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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