windjc
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July 01, 2015, 01:50:17 AM |
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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions: masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 nowchessnut - Eight wave cycle complete DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks! That list is true. I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?). Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago. DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Sorry Dan.
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RyNinDaCleM
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July 01, 2015, 04:42:56 AM |
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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions: masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 nowchessnut - Eight wave cycle complete DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks! No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows. #1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNGlRw2n.png&t=665&c=6S3OgDAVeNc4jA) #2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71 ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFEZW3cG.png&t=665&c=uae0WGT6WWYBnw) #3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FggU8k7m.png&t=665&c=J984vml0F7cuYA)
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Fatman3001
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July 01, 2015, 07:06:19 AM Last edit: July 01, 2015, 07:19:31 AM by Fatman3001 |
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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions: masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 nowchessnut - Eight wave cycle complete DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks! That list is true. I'd chime in and say that masterluc and Ry have been the most accurate. Although right now they very much disagree. (tiebreaker for champion EWer of the world?). Chessnut has gotten much better after giving up his bullish bias several months ago. DanV has made 1 or 2 signature calls, but overall is inaccurate as hell. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Sorry Dan. Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?
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"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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SmoothCurves
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July 01, 2015, 07:15:00 AM |
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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions: masterluc - starting impulse wave 3 nowchessnut - Eight wave cycle complete DanV - we are currently in corrective wave C experiencing a bounce but lower lows predicted RyNinDaCleM - we are currently in corrective wave B and expects new lows Did I misinterpret anyone's current count? Also if I missed an EW analyst you think is important link please. Thanks! No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows. #1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNGlRw2n.png&t=665&c=6S3OgDAVeNc4jA) #2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71 ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFEZW3cG.png&t=665&c=uae0WGT6WWYBnw) #3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FggU8k7m.png&t=665&c=J984vml0F7cuYA) A price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's
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Afrikoin
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July 01, 2015, 07:27:23 AM |
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I am following four bitcoin analysts who use Elliott Wave and as I read their posts here are their current positions:
No misinterpretation and thanks for the props, but my counts are as follows. #1 The Leading diagonal scenario that I have boarder line spammed this and chessnut's threads with. It is a complete count from an EW standpoint. I did make mention about the log trend line break and how it can (depending on the market reaction) change my mind about this count and lean more toward #2. #2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71 #3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's. Hi Ryan, Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction?
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RyNinDaCleM
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July 01, 2015, 10:48:08 AM |
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... #2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71 ...
Hi Ryan, Is #2 similar to the chart you posted yesterday? That had a longer deeper II? after the B correction? Yes, it's pretty much the same. The lines drawn are just a path and no fibo was applied so the actual levels can change a lot depending on where the B were to get
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RyNinDaCleM
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July 01, 2015, 10:58:41 AM |
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#2 The large wave-B count. This count is still on track and is only invalidated with a fall below 219.71 https://i.imgur.com/FEZW3cG.png#3 Which I believe is the same count chessnut has as his preferred count currently. However, imo, this can only be used as a 4th wave since it's not long enough to be a 2nd. This is the only count I have that leads to new ATH's before seeing LL's. https://i.imgur.com/ggU8k7m.pngA price of $260/BTC in 2017 sounds unrealistic given the block reward halving in mid 2016, the VC money that keeps pouring into the ecosystem and a probably stock market correction, a new ATH seems more likely to me than a revisit to the $200's I'm guessing you are referring to #2 and/or #3? In #3, there would be a new ATH, but it would be the III top and the following IV would be as long or longer than this bear market and would enter the price territory of this correction. Usually close (but not a must) to the low of the previous 4 which was the $152 low from January. In #2, there are a lot of variables that can change the bottoming date. Don't just assume that what I have drawn is indicative of where it will actually be. The note in that chart is just a guide line and may or may not be fully adhered to in actuality.
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oda.krell
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July 01, 2015, 11:34:59 AM |
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[snip]
Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?
I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind... There seems to be more disagreement than usual between competent traders / analysts at the moment, but I think it's mainly because the market itself is at a 'decision point', so - anthropomorphizing the market a bit - it is in the "process of making up its mind", and therefore, more difficult to predict as well. If you look back instead to, say, November last year, there was pretty wide agreement where we were heading. That said, some disagreement always remains. However, I'd like to point out, it is only "hit & miss" if you look at it from the perspective of creating a complete descriptive model, e.g. what a model in an empirical field aims for, say, meteorology or weather forecasting. However, market predictions applied to trading are crucially different, in the following ways: - In weather forecasting, you are expected to make a prediction *every day*, and be right every day. In trading on the other hand, you don't *have* to trade when you're not sure - otherwise, you will sit in a "neutral" position, i.e. the least volatile one. The general goal is to enter a position at a point at which your (subjective) probabilities suggest a certain direction of the market, and then exit it at a profit, either at a fixed profit target, or when your subj. probabilities say the direction changes. - As a corollary of the above: the better you are at both predicting the market direction *and* judging the accuracy of your predictions, the more profitable your trading will likely by. So, in terms of subjective probabilities, you are looking for a Calibrated probability assessment. - Last, and maybe most importantly: profits and losses can be kept asymmetric with sufficient trading discipline. Enter: target based trading, and stop losses. It's an old trading mantra: you can be wrong 9 out of 10 times, as long as you manage to strictly limit the losses in the cases where you're wrong, and you profit sufficiently the one time you are right. That was a bit long maybe. So here's the tl;dr: Most non-traders don't realize that trading is only one half "direction prediction". The other half is risk management. And some traders would even argue, in terms of importance, risk management comes before predictions accuracy.
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hdbuck
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July 01, 2015, 12:02:05 PM |
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[snip]
Total noob question: Is this amount and scope of hit&miss/disagreement normal with TA, or is it due to bitcoins diverse nature or perhaps its maturity?
I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind... There seems to be more disagreement than usual between competent traders / analysts at the moment, but I think it's mainly because the market itself is at a 'decision point', so - anthropomorphizing the market a bit - it is in the "process of making up its mind", and therefore, more difficult to predict as well. If you look back instead to, say, November last year, there was pretty wide agreement where we were heading. That said, some disagreement always remains. However, I'd like to point out, it is only "hit & miss" if you look at it from the perspective of creating a complete descriptive model, e.g. what a model in an empirical field aims for, say, meteorology or weather forecasting. However, market predictions applied to trading are crucially different, in the following ways: - In weather forecasting, you are expected to make a prediction *every day*, and be right every day. In trading on the other hand, you don't *have* to trade when you're not sure - otherwise, you will sit in a "neutral" position, i.e. the least volatile one. The general goal is to enter a position at a point at which your (subjective) probabilities suggest a certain direction of the market, and then exit it at a profit, either at a fixed profit target, or when your subj. probabilities say the direction changes. - As a corollary of the above: the better you are at both predicting the market direction *and* judging the accuracy of your predictions, the more profitable your trading will likely by. So, in terms of subjective probabilities, you are looking for a Calibrated probability assessment. - Last, and maybe most importantly: profits and losses can be kept asymmetric with sufficient trading discipline. Enter: target based trading, and stop losses. It's an old trading mantra: you can be wrong 9 out of 10 times, as long as you manage to strictly limit the losses in the cases where you're wrong, and you profit sufficiently the one time you are right. That was a bit long maybe. So here's the tl;dr: Most non-traders don't realize that trading is only one half "direction prediction". The other half is risk management. And some traders would even argue, in terms of importance, risk management comes before predictions accuracy. +1, well said, imho it all boils down to macro environment now. ~ people making their minds whether or not leaving the euro etc...
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h3speros
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July 01, 2015, 12:38:06 PM |
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risk management allows you to fish good opportunities, it doesn't make you bad trader if you lose in most of your trades IF you have solid risk management, winning trades can be so big that it is profitable in the long run, requires nerves of steel
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Fatman3001
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July 01, 2015, 04:19:22 PM |
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@oda.krell
Thx for a very thorough and insightful answer.
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"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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intighet
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July 02, 2015, 09:46:56 PM |
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I'll chime in on this one, if you don't mind...
oda.krell, You come off as a seasoned trader and additionally a person who has wonderfully fine intuition about markets. So good that you have come to conclusions that I have only come across after much mathematics! I would also like to chime in. I do not mean to seem like oda.krell's biggest fan, but their posts are some of the few substantive enough to revert out of lurker-mode! Markets, like weather and other complex dynamic systems, are computed locally. The stochastic nature does not come from any inherent probabilistic mechanism - there is no man behind the curtain flipping coins - but rather from the emergence of many computations of individual players at any given time. Most traders here would agree that profits are possible, that the E.M.H. is not strictly correct. That said, there are times when the market seems more predictable than others. 'Decision points', as you call them, are the times when the market is least predictable, when the equilibrium valuation requires calculated input from the maximum number of traders, and the least number of traders are 'cheating' < -- see the brief evolutionary game theory analogy in oda.krell's other thread.
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Malus pro bono surrepat, et bonus pro malo displiceat; fallaces enim sunt rerum species, quibus credidimus.
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Joerii
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July 04, 2015, 02:21:49 PM |
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Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
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Hypercube - get the attention you deserve
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Okurkabinladin
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July 05, 2015, 02:24:43 PM |
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I have to wonder, if the bulls werent little premature, this growth is taking quite long. I am thankful for any updates from TA educated members.
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2double0
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July 05, 2015, 02:33:42 PM |
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@OP, people are talking about $1000-$1200 levels, what would you say on this? Is it profitable to buy in at these rates & wait and watch?
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Joerii
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July 05, 2015, 04:14:41 PM |
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I don't know much about technical analysis but I remember from a book I've read that one charts that look like Bitcoin's, new bubbles will always reach ATH that are at least 3x as high as the previous one. So 3k usd seems like a modest target.
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Hypercube - get the attention you deserve
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masterluc (OP)
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July 05, 2015, 08:16:20 PM |
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Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years.
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wpalczynski
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July 05, 2015, 08:22:43 PM |
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What conditions have to be met for the uptrend to be confirmed? (bear market over)
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jimbobway
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July 05, 2015, 08:23:35 PM |
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Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years. So around $45,000. Got it.
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gotmilk_
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July 05, 2015, 08:24:09 PM |
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Luc, what do you predict the next ATH to be ?
Big. 1200 may be compared to final ATH in final wave like 31.2 compared to 1200. But it should be in up to 7-10 years. Now we're talking! ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif)
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