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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919272 times)
StarenseN
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July 15, 2015, 07:12:22 AM
 #3221

Wow, here is a some sort of holy war about me.

Guys, I don't  have any communications with any professional traders and trading gamblers. I didn't studied at any financial lessons, except I was long term subscriber at s3052 and waveaddict and now learning more heavy elliottwave.com subscription.

I don't understand any trader I meet as well as them don't understand me.

I am a "sofa" trader and lonely wolf and counter-social element. The only reason I post this thread - is to throw out bulk information out of my head, read it and feedbacks and then systematize it back. And repeat.

This thread helps me to keep chaos in my head under control because I read megabytes a day. I don't need power, glory, prophecy or whatever. I just want to keep clear with lots of information. I share it with you along with my fear and my greed.

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm really sorry to hear that.

To make it clear and to be honest. Back in 2012 with your insights you gave me the envy of beeing a professionnal trader back in the days. Which I am now, so I can't thank as much as I can. I just wanted to make it clear, that some people needs to learn the hardway by themself and should not take anybody else advice as granted.
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Afrikoin
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July 15, 2015, 08:29:35 AM
 #3222

I am trying to learn some basics of EW theory from here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
and would like to see if I am correctly interpreting the following statements.

wave 3 is invalidated if we hit a top ($370 - $600) and go down below $219 (estimate).

Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0

If I understand correctly you are both applying Rule 1 (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1), but at different degrees or levels. Luc is applying it at the highest level, i.e. the "Grand Supercycle," and Africoin is applying it at the next level down, i.e. the SuperCycle.

No, Same level. in this case (below) $166 would be bottom and end of wave II (Grand). that is why i said dropping below $ 216 would invalidate.

Truth is, it wouldnt, sice wave I goes back to 0. Hence why master corrected me and said "Wave 3 invalidated if wave 2 hit bellow start of wave 1. So it will be invalidated if Bitcoin goes below $0" ie (Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1). perfectly within the rule.




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h3speros
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July 15, 2015, 12:54:01 PM
 #3223

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM

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Xiaoxiao
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July 15, 2015, 01:03:58 PM
 #3224

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!
inca
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July 15, 2015, 01:23:35 PM
 #3225

Luc isn't infallible this time, I really odn't know!

What do you mean, this time?
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July 15, 2015, 01:42:35 PM
 #3226

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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July 15, 2015, 01:50:46 PM
 #3227

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

Possible but unlikely. Agree with him, that the next move is up to ~700 - after that correction to 400.

Always wrong until not.
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July 15, 2015, 01:58:40 PM
 #3228

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM
cut

I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.

I sincerely hope RyNinDaCleM is wrong this time  Grin anyway, it seems a perfectly reasonable count... A wave B ending at ~5-600 after summer 2016 could also fit in the block-halving-run market psychology, and then after that we could have the final wave C of Doom (or perhaps a truncated C to > 155?)
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July 15, 2015, 02:17:06 PM
 #3229

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.
B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
Miz4r
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July 15, 2015, 02:40:20 PM
 #3230

I've seen that chart before, but don't think it will play out like that. If there is a lower low to come it will happen before the halving next year, unless some major problem comes up in Bitcoin which will overshadow the halving. Litecoin has already shown what will happen when halving gets close, so things can get pretty crazy next year.

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SmoothCurves
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July 15, 2015, 04:12:35 PM
 #3231

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.
B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?
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July 15, 2015, 04:27:12 PM
 #3232

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


I haven't seen that chart from RyNinDaCleM until now, maybe he didn't show it in this forum so the permabulls don't call him names? Cheesy
According to that chart, the bear market would last until July 2017, but the block reward halving is at the end of July 2016.
So the price could be around 250$ in July 2016 and only around 50$ one year after the block reward halving? I find this impossible,
unless there will be some major technical flaw with bitcoin, in which case double digits would be expensive, I hope such a disaster wont happen.
B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

Yeah that ABC correction doesn't look possible given the block reward halving and increasing global financial instability. Is Wave 2 really so short as to make this ABC chart more plausible?

Wave 2? RyNinDaCleM wave count is that the 1163 high in November 2014 completed wave 5 of a five wave impulse and we are now in a three wave ABC corrective phase. Contrast his count to masterluc who believes we are still in wave 3 of the initial impulse.

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July 15, 2015, 04:35:33 PM
 #3233

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A. 

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes


And another showing the time for wave-(4)


The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.



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July 15, 2015, 05:02:08 PM
 #3234

While I believe this count is very much possible, that particular chart isn't the best depiction of it. There are two different scenarios of how this count can unfold.
1) Since we have already broken the high off the 152 low, we could top very soon (or already have) rather than going up to the target shown. Then we would have a C that would complete around spring 2016, or 2-3 months before halving.

2) We fulfill a B wave to the target area and due to failure to make new ath's, the market panics and capitulates in a explosive and spectacular fashion making for a very fast and brutal C. The time of the over-all correction is more important than the time of C compared to A. 

This is a chart with time fibo and some embedded notes


And another showing the time for wave-(4)


The idea of the 1163 top being wave-(3) fits volume and duration profiles much better than a complete super cycle too. Wave-(5), although often longer than 3 in Bitcoin and other commodities, should have less volume. This was not the case in the move from 100-1200.

If the above chart wins out over the more bearish scenarios, then the true wave-II will be so long, some of us old timers may die before seeing the bottom. Yep,I know what I said.





I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?
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July 15, 2015, 05:14:44 PM
 #3235



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

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July 15, 2015, 06:07:06 PM
 #3236



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?
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July 15, 2015, 06:12:55 PM
 #3237

in luc's option wave 2 is too short, bear market can not be wave 2, maybe wave 4, but imo ryn's option where 166 was wave A bottom and now we are having wave B is the most likely option, so 50-62% retrace from 1100 is the most likely target, or even just 38%, though it could make even smallish HH

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-guide.htm

here is a chart from RyNinDaCleM


 I hope such a disaster wont happen.
B is usually 50-100% of A so that can realize faster. This chart has been here before. I would not post it otherwise.

+ 1.
 Last year, we went up to $ 475 in october and back down to $ 166 in January. Perhaps it is possible we could do a B, head back down and still make it up to current levels by July (halving next year)?

I think we should try rule out as much as possible, and whatever we have left might be closer to the truth.



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July 15, 2015, 06:34:02 PM
 #3238

Without this thread I think I'd already was dead, because last bubble informational and emotional pressure put me in deep hypertensive crisis despite I earned a lot of money.

I'm happy to hear this thread has helped you. Keep it up!

I don't worship or blindly follow you, but I value the information from you very highly. Keep it coming, please.

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July 15, 2015, 07:46:51 PM
Last edit: July 15, 2015, 08:07:05 PM by RyNinDaCleM
 #3239



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.


This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

Edit #2;
Sorry to luc for briefly commandeering your discussion. I am done for now.  Smiley

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July 15, 2015, 08:06:44 PM
 #3240



I've seen other counts where the Bubble of 2011 is counted as it's own mini supercycle with a new one starting after bitcoin bottomed out in $2 range. What do you make of that?

Then we are in exactly the same position. Where wave-[III] is not yet complete and we just finished wave-(4) of that [III] (the red count).

Edit:
And maybe I was a little overboard with that last comment in my other post. It'll be 10-15 years and maybe more depending on how long it takes to complete the V of (5) of [V]. We all may not be dead, but it'll be a long effing time.

wait, are you saying we'll be in a 10-15 year long bearmarket?

Not at all. I'm saying that if this is (5) of [III], once we get finished with this and the [IV] and the [V] and the [[II]] that follows that, combined, will be 10-15 years and possibly longer depending on how long everything excluding the [[II]] takes.

This was all timed out approximately using typical lengths for the waves in question.

Edit;
As tzupy has said on numerous occasions, everything is beginning to "slow down". Not really on lower time frames, but the larger count is beginning to have more and more time between reversals.

....so 800$ or less in 2020.... yea ummmm no.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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