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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806131 times)
rpietila
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February 13, 2015, 07:59:57 AM
 #21261

Bitcoin mining vastly outpaces gold mining while price continues to grow (on average). Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.

Time frame of reference.  Bitcoin is up in the last 5 years, but gold has definitely outperformed bitcoin in the past year.  

As far as stability, neither are.  They're both subject to 5%+ price swings daily, which is far from stable.  Just because bitcoin has temporarily found a price range in the low 2xx's doesn't mean jack. It has been following the same pattern of holding a price for a month or so then falling hard all the way from $700 and below.   Until it shows a strong and maintained uptrend, the free fall remains.
The 30 day chart shows a +0.04% change. That is more stable than fiat.

I'm talking daily market changes.  30 day changes in such volatile markets are more coincidental than indicative of solidarity.  Don't fool yourself.

These markets could and have crashed in a single day at whims notice.

Daily volatility against USD is just one metric to measure stability.

By such small changes as replacing the denominator USD in the equation with "purchasing power" (or the value of anything else but USD), or the "daily" for "any other time" you get completely different results.

Everybody who says dollar is more "stable" than gold is a sad, misinformed person. Dollar is stable strictly when measured in dollars.

As for Bitcoin, it is on track to overtake dollar's "stability" once it rises to any sustainable level first. The rise may take a longish time, because we are talking at 100x or much more.


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cypherdoc
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February 13, 2015, 10:17:58 AM
 #21262

Such a beautiful green candle.
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February 13, 2015, 10:32:23 AM
 #21263

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/566182744498405378
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February 13, 2015, 11:00:37 AM
 #21264

Wekkel
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February 13, 2015, 11:56:46 AM
 #21265

We need $350+ for a meaningful price signal.

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NotLambchop
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February 13, 2015, 12:21:53 PM
 #21266

...
Everybody who says dollar is more "stable" than gold is a sad, misinformed person. Dollar is stable strictly when measured in dollars...

No, the dollar is stable in terms of its buying power.
With USD, I can be fairly certain my food basket will to cost me as much as it did ...oh, let's say... a day ago.
With Bitcoin, the price is calculated on the spot, and is good for exactly 10 minutes.
Ten minutes.
Ten.
Price stays constant for ten (TEN) minutes.
Now if USD prices of goods changed every ten minutes, while BTC prices remained constant, you'd have a point.  In the meantime, back you go.


Get well soon!
NotHatinJustTrollin
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February 13, 2015, 12:37:51 PM
 #21267

Great paper, this guy gets it:


http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/financial-markets/The-Bitcoin-Question-2014.pdf


"The Bitcoin Question: CURRENCY VERSUS TRUST-LESS TRANSFER
TECHNOLOGY"




As always:
Distributed ledger technologies = the internet
Cryptocurrencies = pets.com



 Smiley
sidhujag
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February 13, 2015, 12:43:46 PM
 #21268

U cant compare usd and bitcoin in terms of volatility not fair comparison.. however lets try:

Usd volume daily $4 trillion
btc volume daily $4 million

Usd basket volatility = 0.1% daily
btc volatility = 10% daily

Btc adjusted volatility if volume was $4 trilliion = 0.000001%

Now which one looks more stable???
NotLambchop
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February 13, 2015, 12:59:05 PM
 #21269

U cant compare usd and bitcoin in terms of volatility not fair comparison.. however lets try:

Usd volume daily $4 trillion
btc volume daily $4 million

Usd basket volatility = 0.1% daily
btc volatility = 10% daily

Comparing USD volatility to BTC?  You're thinking of that batshit crazy rpietila.  I agree, laughable.
I'm pretty much with you on BTC being a hundred times as volatile as USD, but caveat:  The prices in my grocery store aren't adjusted every ten minutes, not even by .1% Cheesy

Quote
Btc adjusted volatility if volume was $4 trilliion = 0.000001%

Now which one looks more stable???

If BTC had volume of $4trillion, it would be USD, and thus stable.  It's not, so it ain't.
 
As far as your "adjusted volatility," you've clearly been to universities, but I'm afraid it don't work like you think it does Cheesy
Zangelbert Bingledack
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February 13, 2015, 02:27:29 PM
 #21270


Awesome article, exactly what is missing from the central planning oriented dev talk. Can we get a visual version of this argument? I suspect the two-part article's length and weightiness is limiting its virality as of now.

When you consider it for a bit, it starts to seem strikingly obvious: node operators offer a valuable service to miners and users, and although right now they do so for free, when and if it starts to be difficult for them to do so, a market will form on its own as node operators and other interested parties negotiate their own rules and fees.

Blocksize should have no hard limit. As with everything else, it should be economically limited. The trick is not to panic about "how the market could possibly handle it without central planning." No one is smart enough to figure out all the little rules and stipulations for each economic relationship, let alone do so in advance, let alone get consensus on such rules. Just remove the cap and let the market work. Babying the market with paternalism in the form of artificial scarcity just leaves the space open for competitors to stick their oars in.
cypherdoc
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February 13, 2015, 02:33:53 PM
 #21271

This is a huge deal. One of the most successful bitcoin companies meets one of the most successful business models= BOOM :

https://www.coinbase.com/apps/54db4e971e21224be40004aa
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February 13, 2015, 03:58:44 PM
 #21272

Bullshit

ain't that perrrrty:

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February 13, 2015, 04:16:21 PM
 #21273


"i love bullshit"


all these boys refuse to listen to you.  why is that?:

Preet Bharara "there is nothing wrong with Bitcoin":

http://www.msnbc.com/the-cycle/watch/why-bitcoin-is-important-398177347735

Larry Summers Likes the Idea of Bitcoin

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/12/larry-summers-likes-the-idea-of-bitcoin/?_r=1

Edmund Moy Former Head of the US Mint:

The Currency Revolution, Courtesy of Bitcoin

http://edmoy.com/the-currency-revolution-courtesy-of-bitcoin/
NotLambchop
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February 13, 2015, 04:38:47 PM
 #21274


"[Bitcoin] is a mirage."--

Mine's bigger Cool
sidhujag
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February 13, 2015, 04:52:24 PM
 #21275

U cant compare usd and bitcoin in terms of volatility not fair comparison.. however lets try:

Usd volume daily $4 trillion
btc volume daily $4 million

Usd basket volatility = 0.1% daily
btc volatility = 10% daily

Comparing USD volatility to BTC?  You're thinking of that batshit crazy rpietila.  I agree, laughable.
I'm pretty much with you on BTC being a hundred times as volatile as USD, but caveat:  The prices in my grocery store aren't adjusted every ten minutes, not even by .1% Cheesy

Quote
Btc adjusted volatility if volume was $4 trilliion = 0.000001%

Now which one looks more stable???

If BTC had volume of $4trillion, it would be USD, and thus stable.  It's not, so it ain't.
 
As far as your "adjusted volatility," you've clearly been to universities, but I'm afraid it don't work like you think it does Cheesy
Once btc has volume of $4 trillion of purchasing power today in btc then prices in the stores will be in btc thus volatility is just on the market and that low value that i came up with... Because of limited supply volatility will tend towards 0 as population increases
Wekkel
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February 13, 2015, 05:04:55 PM
 #21276

Thank God honey badger doesn't care for naysayers. It just doesn't.

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NotLambchop
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February 13, 2015, 05:18:57 PM
 #21277

...
Once btc has volume of $4 trillion of purchasing power today in btc then prices in the stores will be in btc thus volatility is just on the market and that low value that i came up with... Because of limited supply volatility will tend towards 0 as population increases

If my shitcoin had "$4 trillion of purchasing power," it wouldn't be the shitcoin that it is, would it?  How many different ways must this be restated?

TL;DR: Here's your reasoning:
"Once pigs seat more people than an A380 & start to fly just as fast, they would give Airbus some competition."
True.  They would.  Caveat:  They don't, and Airbus ain't worried.  Ain't likely to, either.

@Wekkel: Make that "didn't care."
sidhujag
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February 13, 2015, 05:38:49 PM
 #21278

...
Once btc has volume of $4 trillion of purchasing power today in btc then prices in the stores will be in btc thus volatility is just on the market and that low value that i came up with... Because of limited supply volatility will tend towards 0 as population increases

If my shitcoin had "$4 trillion of purchasing power," it wouldn't be the shitcoin that it is, would it?  How many different ways must this be restated?

TL;DR: Here's your reasoning:
"Once pigs seat more people than an A380 & start to fly just as fast, they would give Airbus some competition."
True.  They would.  Caveat:  They don't, and Airbus ain't worried.  Ain't likely to, either.

@Wekkel: Make that "didn't care."

A token with inherent utility is better than the one without it. Market will adjust on its own.
Wekkel
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February 13, 2015, 05:42:23 PM
 #21279

There are no guarantees in life. Some take their chances and act. Others just try to keep a player down. Others never knew what hit them.

So be it.

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NotLambchop
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February 13, 2015, 05:44:04 PM
 #21280

>A token with inherent utility

WTF does that even mean?  

@Wekkel re. "Some take their chances and act":  You're just running with scissors.  Nothing laudable about that.

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