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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022041 times)
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August 05, 2015, 02:01:11 PM
 #29821

t0.com

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the new Overstock's blockchain based trading platform.

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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August 05, 2015, 02:03:01 PM
 #29822

http://reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/cts8dn1
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August 05, 2015, 02:32:50 PM
 #29823

It's with some delicious irony we find this thread arguing over block size, while Gold really is collapsing, while bitcoin is doing relatively okay hanging close to the 300 - 315 resistance.

While we have a way to go towards parity as of yet, it does seem that gold and btc are heading in the right directions to meet should the trends continue.

http://i.imgur.com/njmLLAw.png

I'm just an amature when it comes to XAU, so perhaps the more experienced on this thread might want to give us some insight in where they think gold is going and where bottom lies?

nothing new

gold is *being* collapsed. Wink Grin

the only question is, how low will it go?
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August 05, 2015, 04:10:49 PM
 #29824

so if I understand correctly Peter's "landmark paper" rise to the top was.."short like leprechaun".

http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-August/009916.html

a valiant effort I guess. getting some more peer-review probably would've been of better judgment?

ps. I'm not against you "crowd-sourcing" your grammar but I thought the whole exercise on reddit made your thread unreadable.

I don't see how proportion of hash rate has anything to do with orphan rate.  Each broadcast block has the same chance of being orphaned as the next broadcast block, regardless of your proportion of hashrate, with network speed and connectivity being the only major variable.  He needs to show some peterr-style analysis.

It is simple. You never orphan your own blocks. So if you have hypothetically a 99% hash rate you will have an orphan rate that is <1% regardless of propagation time. Someone else on the same network may have an orphan rate that is much greater than 1% given high propagation time.

The numbers work out differently with a more realistic hash rate share (say 15%) but the principle is the same. The higher your share the more of an advantage you get from the prevailing orphan rate being high.
Ok that makes sense

I think the "you" in the phrase "you never orphan your own blocks" needs to be thought about more carefully, but the point is valid that a block's propagation impedance [my (gamma x C)^-1 in the paper] is much less when the information is communicated across a miner's own hardware network compared to when the information is communicated to other miners. The paper spoke to this [albeit less than I should have in hindsight and I didn't explicitly talk about intra-miner communication] in the Conclusion and in End Note 13.  

I was actually working on an "Appendix B" to formalize my definition for tau(Q) by considering these details more rigorously, but the math become too complex and so I felt that such an analysis deserved a follow-up paper instead.  

In any case, my suspicion is:

(1) As long as information regarding the transactions in a solved block needs to be communicated between miners (and even within a miner's own network), the Shannon-Hartley limit will apply, orphaning cost will be non-zero, and the fee market will remain healthy.

(2) We will be able to show that any attempts to create a "mining cartel" that prevents outsiders from accessing the same "fast relay networks" as the cartel members will fail, as individual members will improve their profitability by "cheating" by providing access to non-members. [A point Erdogan mentioned earlier in this thread.]

(3) The results of the paper will hold "as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes."  [Satoshi White Paper]

great work Peter.  thank you for applying such rigor to what we've suspected all along.

as long as miners and full nodes are free to choose the size of the blocks they will relay/construct as well as employ "defensive" mining, they should be able to defeat a spammer.  as long as they can set their minfees, they should be able to defeat a spammer.  as long as users can outbid a spammer, they too should be able to help defeat a spamming attack.  note the freedom that all these direct economic actors have in this scenario.  they all have a financial incentive to do so.  core dev, otoh, doesn't have and shouldn't have a direct economic incentive in these negotiations (except in an accidental conflict of interest scenario like we have now). even if we agreed they should, they don't have the proprietary info required to make informed economic decisions.

i hear all this talk about how miners would be encouraged to do the wrong thing.  no, Bitcoin encourages them to do the right thing, esp in a no limit situation.  b/c Bitcoin has a fixed and transparent supply of coin and b/c of the open source nature of the protocol, miners have a chance to become the infrastructure of an entirely new financial system.  what an amazing opportunity. they won't want to jeopardize that. all this focus of devs on malicious intent is just a reflection of the suspicious, pessimistic nature of these individuals.  they can't believe such a system like Bitcoin can work.  well, Satoshi has proved them all wrong and Bitcoin grinds on and will be improved and upgraded as necessary to advance and grow the system.  it is inevitable.

i'm reminded of this great video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic2JRy1SYqA

no miner will go for the blonde (bloated block attack) b/c it would be fatal to their bottom line and ultimate survival ala ghash. we've never seen it and we won't see it. mining is more decentralized than it has ever been and opening up the block caps will encourage growth of mining outside of China as other countries will be able to exploit their superior bandwidths.  and if a consequence of that is that China needs to bring down their GFC, that would be great too in spreading even more freedom.
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August 05, 2015, 08:33:34 PM
 #29825

It's with some delicious irony we find this thread arguing over block size, while Gold really is collapsing, while bitcoin is doing relatively okay hanging close to the 300 - 315 resistance.

While we have a way to go towards parity as of yet, it does seem that gold and btc are heading in the right directions to meet should the trends continue.

http://i.imgur.com/njmLLAw.png

I'm just an amature when it comes to XAU, so perhaps the more experienced on this thread might want to give us some insight in where they think gold is going and where bottom lies?

nothing new

gold is *being* collapsed. Wink Grin

the only question is, how low will it go?
If gold drop down to $1000 dollar per ounce. The Russian, Chinese, India and all people of the whole world will buy it.

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August 05, 2015, 08:38:26 PM
 #29826

Interesting read from Amerman: http://danielamerman.com/va/GHratio.html
Conclusion: gold is still relatively expensive compared to real estate (in the US)

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August 05, 2015, 09:18:47 PM
 #29827


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.
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August 05, 2015, 09:30:11 PM
 #29828


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.

In all honestly PT is probably tired that Gavin is trolling the dev list non stop and just jealous for attention Smiley


"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 05, 2015, 09:38:18 PM
 #29829

t0.com

"The Trade is the Settlement"

the new Overstock's blockchain based trading platform.

The trade is the settlement...and the settlement layer is the blockchain.   Cool

Move over Frappuccinos, there's now a more valuable use for BTC than yet another payment rail.


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
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Buy and sell XMR near you
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tvbcof
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August 05, 2015, 09:40:24 PM
 #29830


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.

Peter Todd is 'toxic' and a poisonous peep because he asks that people quote him correctly and not invent his arguments for him.  LOL.  I don't follow reddit much but when I do I inevitably find it even more useless than our little trolltalk here.


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August 05, 2015, 09:42:19 PM
 #29831


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.

A runaway victory for the "pseudo science" of Peter_R over Peter T. Cheesy

.

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August 05, 2015, 09:45:05 PM
 #29832


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.

Peter Todd is 'toxic' and a poisonous peep because he asks that people quote him correctly and not invent his arguments for him.  LOL.  I don't follow reddit much but when I do I inevitably find it even more useless than our little trolltalk here.



that anyone would give credence to the mob on there shows the desperation some are experiencing.

if you have followed the dev list for the past 2 months you know exactly what Todd was talking about.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 05, 2015, 09:55:47 PM
 #29833


PT is getting trashed in the rest of the comment section those who seem sick of him are getting very highly upvoted

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fuz2s/peter_todd_against_gavin_on_the_bitcoindev/

I think this whole blocksize "debate" has opened a lot of people's eyes.

Peter Todd is 'toxic' and a poisonous peep because he asks that people quote him correctly and not invent his arguments for him.  LOL.  I don't follow reddit much but when I do I inevitably find it even more useless than our little trolltalk here.



that anyone would give credence to the mob on there shows the desperation some are experiencing.


if you have followed the dev list for the past 2 months you know exactly what Todd was talking about.


Same result within the 'mob' in this thread. 28.5% : 71.5%
Zero chance for limited blocks/brains ...

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August 05, 2015, 09:58:36 PM
 #29834

How anything can be a mystery to someone of such overwhelming intelligence is the real puzzle here. Sidestepped again, oh woe is me. It's not my job to explain your own view to you. Only you can bring yourself to your senses, you've proved countless times that you won't hear reason from anyone else.

The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Nero meddling fiddling whilst it happens. You missed that point though, so eager to to try and deny that there is any risk https://medium.com/@octskyward/crash-landing-f5cc19908e32

...and gavin said what now?

There is a very good blog post by David Hudson at hashingit.com analyzing what will happen on the network as we approach 100% full blocks. Please visit that link for full details, but basically he points out there is a mismatch between when transactions are created and when blocks are found– and that mismatch means very bad things start to happen on the network as the one megabyte limit is reached.

The only mystery here is how you could possibly extrapolate "moral bankruptcy" and well being coming "at the expense of others" from Davout's explicit "everyone gets to benefit" specification.  I suspect you are assigning moral solvency exclusively to equality of outcome, like a typical Free Shit Army Marxist.

And for the coup de grace, here is what Gavin said last month about your Sky Falling/Rome Burning/Red Zone/QUICK LET'S ALL PANIC-based attempts to ram through ill-considered hard forks using fear and mass hysteria:



Keep in mind this is the same Gavin who declared "increasing the max block size is urgent" back in early May.  Gavin must be using some exotic radial definition of "urgent" with which I am not familiar, because despite his FUD nothing bad happened, and as a result of 'meddling by doing nothing' we now enjoy the benefits of better node/pool/mine configurations, smarter wallet software, RBF, fee market incubation, and pressure on SC/LN development.

Code:
Gavin in May 2015: "increasing the max block size is urgent"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"


#REKT


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
Buy XMR with fiat
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August 05, 2015, 10:03:44 PM
 #29835

How anything can be a mystery to someone of such overwhelming intelligence is the real puzzle here. Sidestepped again, oh woe is me. It's not my job to explain your own view to you. Only you can bring yourself to your senses, you've proved countless times that you won't hear reason from anyone else.

The thrust of the Rome Burning metaphor is not the fact that Rome burns, but that you are Nero meddling fiddling whilst it happens. You missed that point though, so eager to to try and deny that there is any risk https://medium.com/@octskyward/crash-landing-f5cc19908e32

...and gavin said what now?

There is a very good blog post by David Hudson at hashingit.com analyzing what will happen on the network as we approach 100% full blocks. Please visit that link for full details, but basically he points out there is a mismatch between when transactions are created and when blocks are found– and that mismatch means very bad things start to happen on the network as the one megabyte limit is reached.

The only mystery here is how you could possibly extrapolate "moral bankruptcy" and well being coming "at the expense of others" from Davout's explicit "everyone gets to benefit" specification.  I suspect you are assigning moral solvency exclusively to equality of outcome, like a typical Free Shit Army Marxist.

And for the coup de grace, here is what Gavin said last month about your Sky Falling/Rome Burning/Red Zone/QUICK LET'S ALL PANIC-based attempts to ram through ill-considered hard forks using fear and mass hysteria:



Keep in mind this is the same Gavin who declared "increasing the max block size is urgent" back in early May.  Gavin must be using some exotic radial definition of "urgent" with which I am not familiar, because despite his FUD nothing bad happened, and as a result of 'meddling by doing nothing' we now enjoy the benefits of better node/pool/mine configurations, smarter wallet software, RBF, fee market incubation, and pressure on SC/LN development.

Code:
Gavin in May 2015: "increasing the max block size is urgent"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"


#REKT


Urgency begins before the sky is falling. Only limited brains would wait until the sky is falling.

.

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August 05, 2015, 10:09:11 PM
 #29836

Urgency begins before the sky is falling. Only limited brains would wait until the sky is falling.

When and how do you project the sky to fall?

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 05, 2015, 10:26:21 PM
 #29837


that anyone would give credence to the mob on there shows the desperation some are experiencing.

if you have followed the dev list for the past 2 months you know exactly what Todd was talking about.

Exactly.  The epic buttburn Todd has inflicted, which ranges from the Gavinistas here to those on reddit and back to our DashHole thread, puts him well into Legendary Troll territory.   Cool



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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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August 05, 2015, 10:28:05 PM
 #29838



Code:
Gavin in May 2015: "increasing the max block size is urgent"
Gavin in July 2015: "The sky will not fall if the block size stays at 1MB"


Urgency begins before the sky is falling. Only limited brains would wait until the sky is falling.

I just quoted you Gavin saying "The sky will not fall."  How fucking thick are you?


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
Buy and sell XMR near you
P2P Exchange Network
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August 05, 2015, 10:40:43 PM
 #29839

It's with some delicious irony we find this thread arguing over block size, while Gold really is collapsing, while bitcoin is doing relatively okay hanging close to the 300 - 315 resistance.

While we have a way to go towards parity as of yet, it does seem that gold and btc are heading in the right directions to meet should the trends continue.

http://i.imgur.com/njmLLAw.png

I'm just an amature when it comes to XAU, so perhaps the more experienced on this thread might want to give us some insight in where they think gold is going and where bottom lies?

nothing new

gold is *being* collapsed. Wink Grin

the only question is, how low will it go?
If gold drop down to $1000 dollar per ounce. The Russian, Chinese, India and all people of the whole world will buy it.

Why would they step in to buy if they felt they might get it cheaper by holding out for a bit longer? I appreciate gold, but it ain't got no magical powers either, the markets will decide it's value, not its proponents. Goldbugs would do well to reflect upon that fact.

[̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅] From time to time i exchange e-currencies/trade like Skrill>Paypal>Remittances>Pokerstars>Amazon GC>PaySafecard to Bitcoin. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°̲̅)̲̅$̲̅]
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August 06, 2015, 12:07:56 AM
 #29840

so if I understand correctly Peter's "landmark paper" rise to the top was.."short like leprechaun".

http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-August/009916.html

a valiant effort I guess. getting some more peer-review probably would've been of better judgment?

ps. I'm not against you "crowd-sourcing" your grammar but I thought the whole exercise on reddit made your thread unreadable.

I don't see how proportion of hash rate has anything to do with orphan rate.  Each broadcast block has the same chance of being orphaned as the next broadcast block, regardless of your proportion of hashrate, with network speed and connectivity being the only major variable.  He needs to show some peterr-style analysis.

It is simple. You never orphan your own blocks. So if you have hypothetically a 99% hash rate you will have an orphan rate that is <1% regardless of propagation time. Someone else on the same network may have an orphan rate that is much greater than 1% given high propagation time.

The numbers work out differently with a more realistic hash rate share (say 15%) but the principle is the same. The higher your share the more of an advantage you get from the prevailing orphan rate being high.
Ok that makes sense

I think the "you" in the phrase "you never orphan your own blocks" needs to be thought about more carefully, but the point is valid that a block's propagation impedance [my (gamma x C)^-1 in the paper] is much less when the information is communicated across a miner's own hardware network compared to when the information is communicated to other miners. The paper spoke to this [albeit less than I should have in hindsight and I didn't explicitly talk about intra-miner communication] in the Conclusion and in End Note 13.  

I was actually working on an "Appendix B" to formalize my definition for tau(Q) by considering these details more rigorously, but the math become too complex and so I felt that such an analysis deserved a follow-up paper instead.  

In any case, my suspicion is:

(1) As long as information regarding the transactions in a solved block needs to be communicated between miners (and even within a miner's own network), the Shannon-Hartley limit will apply, orphaning cost will be non-zero, and the fee market will remain healthy.

(2) We will be able to show that any attempts to create a "mining cartel" that prevents outsiders from accessing the same "fast relay networks" as the cartel members will fail, as individual members will improve their profitability by "cheating" by providing access to non-members. [A point Erdogan mentioned earlier in this thread.]

(3) The results of the paper will hold "as long as honest nodes collectively control more CPU power than any cooperating group of attacker nodes."  [Satoshi White Paper]

Peter,

I read through about half of your paper and it outlines the issues very well. What it appears to me is how things will be moving forward there will be no block size limit and the network will be self-regulating as there is increased risk in creating larger blocks for more fees (i.e. pay off) in the form of that block being orphaned.

What I am still on the side lines about is whether there will be a successful attack on creating a very large block like say 1 TB just be happenstance.

Of course putting an upper limit on the block size could help I personally would like to see bitcoin stand on its own two feet with no limit restrictions on block sizes and let the free market of miners and attackers decide on how big the blocks should be going forward.

I'll have to read the rest of your paper but so far it is very interesting how you have outline the major issues and put them into visual representations for all to see and understand.

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