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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1922627 times)
Erdogan
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August 07, 2015, 06:53:43 PM
 #29961

About centralization:

Absolute centralization does not normally happen in the free market. First, for centralization to happen at all, there has to be large scale advantages. If there are, centralization will start to happen, but there are at least two counter-forces (from the top of my head). The first is the cost of administrating a larger business. You need more layers of administration, and administration is costly and ineffective. Also, with few competitors, the whole business get complacent and start to deteriorate, making room for someone else.

The other point is the risk factor. Say the business centralizes, the best companies grow, steadily increases productivity, and at some point there are only two left, one of them marginally more effective than the other. The least effective of the two then have the choice to wind down, forsaking some of the capital in the process, or sell itself to the other, but for a price that may be low because the other has the upper hand, or, the third option is to continue grinding on with slighly lower profit, and then hope that the other makes a mistake. It is easy to make mistakes when you have optimized fully - bitcoin price move against you - power price, space rent, wages, some regulation, whatever. And the nature - a storm taking out power for a day and so on. Suddenly, the other company is number two and you are number one. The arrest of centralization will probably start far earlier, I believe we will have say twenty large operations, and hundreds of smaller, professional operations spread around the globe. And I mean mining factories, not pool operators. Those can be regarded as service companies for the miners, with their own centralization dynamics.


Bitcoin exists in no way, shape, or form in a 'free market' nor is there any realistic way that it will either in a socio-economic and political climate similar to today's or in almost any likely evolutionary or revolutionary increment of it.  This makes all of your theory based assertions and pipe-dreams useless.  Worse than useless actually.  All you have to do is open your eyes and look at almost any aspect of reality these days to see this.

Laissez faire strategies are very much to my liking and are an ideal in a lot of ways to me, but they simply do not work when one is under attack, and distributed crypto-currencies very much are and will be much more so going forward.  I (do) lobby hard for an active and pro-active defense and at least maintaining the ability to go on the offense when it makes sense strategically.


I don't agree, I see bitcoin, bitcoin mining, and the exchange of bitcoin to fiat, as a near perfect free market.

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iCEBREAKER
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August 07, 2015, 07:02:29 PM
 #29962

money printing funding bailouts of debt ridden companies who've outgrown their competitiveness via cheap credit.  more debt to fix a debt problem, when possible.  if not, print.  printing to fund interest payments is what is driving the Greek problems.  preferred access to cheap credit concentrates wealth into a few hands, like we have today.  wealth concentration leads to better political access to keep it that way.  why do you think many politicians end up in corner offices at financial institutions.  it's called revolving door policy.  

Excellent point!  Who could possibly be stupid enough to confuse cheap credit driven bailouts of auto companies with real economic growth, especially when the prevention of badly needed creative destruction is actually exacerbating the TBTF zombie corporation problem?

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Core GUI - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }
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Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

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August 07, 2015, 07:09:01 PM
 #29963

About centralization:

Absolute centralization does not normally happen in the free market. ...

Bitcoin exists in no way, shape, or form in a 'free market' nor is there any realistic way that it will either in a socio-economic and political climate similar to today's or in almost any likely evolutionary or revolutionary increment of it.  This makes all of your theory based assertions and pipe-dreams useless.  Worse than useless actually.  All you have to do is open your eyes and look at almost any aspect of reality these days to see this.

Laissez faire strategies are very much to my liking and are an ideal in a lot of ways to me, but they simply do not work when one is under attack, and distributed crypto-currencies very much are and will be much more so going forward.  I (do) lobby hard for an active and pro-active defense and at least maintaining the ability to go on the offense when it makes sense strategically.

I don't agree, I see bitcoin, bitcoin mining, and the exchange of bitcoin to fiat, as a near perfect free market.

That is why I see you guys as the biggest threat that Bitcoin faces.

At this point I think it unlikely that Bitcoin itself will succeed due to folks like you.  I've been mentally prepared for this for a long time and have not given up hope completely, but it seems much more likely than not that your types will bring us down.  As I've said for years, though, Bitcoin has already achieved it's promise drawing in interest to the general concepts of distributed crypto-currencies.  That is to say, it was key in opening up Pandora's box.  That cannot be undone.


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August 07, 2015, 07:30:23 PM
 #29964

About centralization:

Absolute centralization does not normally happen in the free market. ...

Bitcoin exists in no way, shape, or form in a 'free market' nor is there any realistic way that it will either in a socio-economic and political climate similar to today's or in almost any likely evolutionary or revolutionary increment of it.  This makes all of your theory based assertions and pipe-dreams useless.  Worse than useless actually.  All you have to do is open your eyes and look at almost any aspect of reality these days to see this.

Laissez faire strategies are very much to my liking and are an ideal in a lot of ways to me, but they simply do not work when one is under attack, and distributed crypto-currencies very much are and will be much more so going forward.  I (do) lobby hard for an active and pro-active defense and at least maintaining the ability to go on the offense when it makes sense strategically.

I don't agree, I see bitcoin, bitcoin mining, and the exchange of bitcoin to fiat, as a near perfect free market.

That is why I see you guys as the biggest threat that Bitcoin faces.

At this point I think it unlikely that Bitcoin itself will succeed due to folks like you.  I've been mentally prepared for this for a long time and have not given up hope completely, but it seems much more likely than not that your types will bring us down.  As I've said for years, though, Bitcoin has already achieved it's promise drawing in interest to the general concepts of distributed crypto-currencies.  That is to say, it was key in opening up Pandora's box.  That cannot be undone.



No. You're letting your fear of a technical attack (which is unlikely to actually be the attack vector from the orgs I think you fear) cloud your analysis. Granted, there's a balance to be had, but I contend that the greatest chance for longterm success, and global benefit, lies in bitcoin storing and transacting as much wealth and value as possible. Security, political incentives, and positive impact on humanity stem from that.

And you're just not going to get that without an ability to scale. The notion that bitcoin can be a high-market-cap (orders of mag more than today) system under a model of a small number of high-value transactions is really tunnel-visioned. It'd basically just be used by a small number of people such as yourself in that event, which not only entails giving up massive potential for appreciation, but probably falls back to where things were in 2011 and stays there.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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August 07, 2015, 07:42:28 PM
 #29965

One of the many reasons I haven't invested more time in the design is my mining equipment is still producing a profit in excess of 50% of the input costs.

Not sure I'm following you. Are you suggesting that it doesn't make sense for you to mod your gear [to be a part of your hot water heater] now, because your profits are high without doing it?
Are you planning to modify the gear eventually, once the profits drop?  If so, why not mod it now?  Unless the mod will cost you less at a later date, you're simply losing money. Especially since you claim that you've underclocked your gear to 60% due to heat issues (summer).  It either makes sense to do it right away, or it *never* makes sense.
If you're not planning to mod your gear, then my point is made.

Quote
2) the concern you point out is valid but not problematic, if the water in the tank is hot, the miner runs but is not used to heat hot water. (so your wast heat is wasted) but for the rest of the time, the cost of hot water is free, or the bitcoin are being mined for free. you can still mine with 100% efficiency 100% of the time and not mine if your efficiency drops below say 99% or whatever your threshold is.

But that adds further costs--the need for dual cooling systems & switchover valving/control circuitry.

In short, impractical.

1) It won't be hard to integrate into hot water heaters when the chips are no longer obsoleted every 6 months or less. That will have to happen eventually.

2) The miner will shut off when the heat is no longer needed. If it continued running it would be at a loss, because the re-use of heat is the only thing keeping it profitable.

You're making this out to be way more difficult than it really is.
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August 07, 2015, 07:43:52 PM
 #29966


no.  i want an international digital monetary system that is apolitical and fair, controlled by no one, that is cheap, fast, easy and accessible by all ppl's of the world, that has a fixed supply so as to not be inflatable, that will replace gold, & that can take the human race into the next technological growth phase.  there's alot of great things to look forward to.  esp for our kids whom i'm esp worried for and hope to get thru the debt bubble collapse.

Ok, then please do not try to develop software. Let's leave "core devs" doing their job. Everything is going fine.  :-) Eye surgery and software development are two different things.
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August 07, 2015, 07:54:15 PM
 #29967

money printing funding bailouts of debt ridden companies who've outgrown their competitiveness via cheap credit.  more debt to fix a debt problem, when possible.  if not, print.  printing to fund interest payments is what is driving the Greek problems.  preferred access to cheap credit concentrates wealth into a few hands, like we have today.  wealth concentration leads to better political access to keep it that way.  why do you think many politicians end up in corner offices at financial institutions.  it's called revolving door policy.  

Excellent point!  Who could possibly be stupid enough to confuse cheap credit driven bailouts of auto companies with real economic growth, especially when the prevention of badly needed creative destruction is actually exacerbating the TBTF zombie corporation problem?

OK so we're on the same team then?  Smiley

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August 07, 2015, 08:15:42 PM
 #29968


no.  i want an international digital monetary system that is apolitical and fair, controlled by no one, that is cheap, fast, easy and accessible by all ppl's of the world, that has a fixed supply so as to not be inflatable, that will replace gold, & that can take the human race into the next technological growth phase.  there's alot of great things to look forward to.  esp for our kids whom i'm esp worried for and hope to get thru the debt bubble collapse.

Ok, then please do not try to develop software. Let's leave "core devs" doing their job. Everything is going fine.  :-) Eye surgery and software development are two different things.

Do you see Bitcoin as purely a software development project?

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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August 07, 2015, 08:39:46 PM
 #29969

One of the many reasons I haven't invested more time in the design is my mining equipment is still producing a profit in excess of 50% of the input costs.

Not sure I'm following you. Are you suggesting that it doesn't make sense for you to mod your gear [to be a part of your hot water heater] now, because your profits are high without doing it?
Are you planning to modify the gear eventually, once the profits drop?  If so, why not mod it now?  Unless the mod will cost you less at a later date, you're simply losing money. Especially since you claim that you've underclocked your gear to 60% due to heat issues (summer).  It either makes sense to do it right away, or it *never* makes sense.
If you're not planning to mod your gear, then my point is made.

Quote
2) the concern you point out is valid but not problematic, if the water in the tank is hot, the miner runs but is not used to heat hot water. (so your wast heat is wasted) but for the rest of the time, the cost of hot water is free, or the bitcoin are being mined for free. you can still mine with 100% efficiency 100% of the time and not mine if your efficiency drops below say 99% or whatever your threshold is.

But that adds further costs--the need for dual cooling systems & switchover valving/control circuitry.

In short, impractical.

I like your skepticism good questions they dont undermine the logic, but I'll oblige anyway.
Yes, my profits are high enough without doing it.
I'm very busy acquiring new skills on some other projects (ones that intersect with the macro economic issues where both iCE and Cypher seem to agree), so I haven't made this a priority. It makes sense to do it now for lots of reasons, I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already, so I'm sure lots of entrepreneurs are thinking about it. There will also be a significant first mover advantage should competition emerge, that would also delay the decision to proceed indefinably.

Time and energy being the two resources I lack is the main reason its being delayed. And the wife docent want to see any thing bitcoin in the house. (its not easy explaining the total time logged in on the top of this page to everyone when you not in fount of a screen 24/7.) - its been like this ever since bitcoin hit $1000 and I told her I sold around $10 and bought gold at its peek, I can thank cypher for that I'll blame him for his confrontational debating style.     

I have more than enough mining gear for the RnD process involves, I lack additional controls should I break something, a typical risk but not one I can afford given ASICminer is no more, ultimately all my gear will be converted for a proof of principal and testing however I only need so much hot water and scaling the idea needs me focus on more than just the PoP.

the "further costs" are not as prohibitive as you may think, and they are also fixed costs + R&D, and it's trivial issue in mass production. 

I'll agree it's impractical if it hasn't emerged in the next 4 years. the principal is wast = food, its true in sustainable Eco systems and it's true in sustainable economic systems.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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August 07, 2015, 08:52:47 PM
 #29970


no.  i want an international digital monetary system that is apolitical and fair, controlled by no one, that is cheap, fast, easy and accessible by all ppl's of the world, that has a fixed supply so as to not be inflatable, that will replace gold, & that can take the human race into the next technological growth phase.  there's alot of great things to look forward to.  esp for our kids whom i'm esp worried for and hope to get thru the debt bubble collapse.

Ok, then please do not try to develop software. Let's leave "core devs" doing their job. Everything is going fine.  :-) Eye surgery and software development are two different things.

On the face of it I'd  agree. But after spending  5y in Bitcoin interacting with devs like you I've  learned that code doesn't write itself. It starts with a bunch of you sitting around a table trying to figure out things like if 2% inflation in an altcoin would be better accepted by the average Joe than 1%, or if Snoor sigs will verify faster than ECDSA to improve waiting times in checkout lines, or the decision to implement p2sh so that multiple parties can split the responsibility of securing the money stored at one address; all those sound like technical problems but they really are ideological and economic beliefs based on assumed human behavior coded into the software. Amir Taaki is one of the only devs who flat out admits this and I am thankful for his honesty.

Even this whole block size debate is based on ideology and economic belief about how human beings will react in a given situation. It's been leaking out much more lately as the Cripplecoiners have been reaching desperately for every argument they can get their hands on. Instead of them being truly technical about their arguments, they instead throw out a bunch of armchair logic without any real data as to why Bitcoin can't scale. The reality is that all of them believe they should be able to run a full node (ideology) and they believe Bitcoin should be a settlement layer (false economics). They want the code to enforce those principles so they blockade any one who disagrees with them with technical sounding FUD. There's even financial conflict of interest entering the picture.

Code doesn't write itself.
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August 07, 2015, 08:59:07 PM
 #29971


no.  i want an international digital monetary system that is apolitical and fair, controlled by no one, that is cheap, fast, easy and accessible by all ppl's of the world, that has a fixed supply so as to not be inflatable, that will replace gold, & that can take the human race into the next technological growth phase.  there's alot of great things to look forward to.  esp for our kids whom i'm esp worried for and hope to get thru the debt bubble collapse.

Ok, then please do not try to develop software. Let's leave "core devs" doing their job. Everything is going fine.  :-) Eye surgery and software development are two different things.

oh, but eye surgery allows me to help ppl see the light Grin
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August 07, 2015, 09:01:47 PM
 #29972

-snip-
I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already
-snip-

"A chip in every toaster" people?

There are two ways of making money with bitcoin mining.  One is to mine (risky, often disastrously unprofitable), the other is selling dreams to starry-eyed bitcoiners (easy, fun, works 99% of the time, no tech/con experience required).

Don't think 21inc is planning to do much mining.

The key is to hire a talented and proven shill.  If only there were someone like that around here...


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August 07, 2015, 09:03:39 PM
 #29973

the sweet smell of deflation:

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August 07, 2015, 09:05:23 PM
 #29974

-snip-
I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already
-snip-

"A chip in every toaster" people?

There are two ways of making money with bitcoin mining.  One is to mine (risky, often disastrously unprofitable), the other is selling dreams to starry-eyed bitcoiners (easy, fun, works 99% of the time, no tech/con experience required).

Don't think 21inc is planning to do much mining.

They're arguably one of the major players in the mining industry at the moment so you might want to check your facts...

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 07, 2015, 09:08:50 PM
 #29975

-snip-
I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already
-snip-

"A chip in every toaster" people?

There are two ways of making money with bitcoin mining.  One is to mine (risky, often disastrously unprofitable), the other is selling dreams to starry-eyed bitcoiners (easy, fun, works 99% of the time, no tech/con experience required).

Don't think 21inc is planning to do much mining.

The key is to hire a talented and proven shill.  If only there were someone like that around here...



yeah, and despite someone explaining to you what went on, you'd rather apply your own judgment biases w/o any investigation or knowledge:

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August 07, 2015, 09:26:29 PM
 #29976

-snip-
I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already
-snip-

"A chip in every toaster" people?

There are two ways of making money with bitcoin mining.  One is to mine (risky, often disastrously unprofitable), the other is selling dreams to starry-eyed bitcoiners (easy, fun, works 99% of the time, no tech/con experience required).

Don't think 21inc is planning to do much mining.

They're arguably one of the major players in the mining industry at the moment so you might want to check your facts...

Just did a quick search, but my Google seems to be on the blink at the moment.  Mind giving me a link to their mining gear?  Pics of their chips?  Farm?  A mining address?
Thanks.


Details are scarce since they are still in stealth mode but here goes:

https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/21inc

Quote
The document suggests 21 had sought to build 20,000-server, 26-megawatt datacenters to serve as the center of a mining pool that could ensure block rewards.

As an example of the potential power of its pool, 21's mining operations generated approximately 5,700 BTC in 2013 and 69,000 BTC the following year, according to the document.

Quote
Intel factories, the documents suggested, were responsible for at least two generations of 21 bitcoin mining chips, a 0.57 w/GH 22nm FinFET chip (codenamed CyrusOne) and a 0.22 w/GH 22nm chip (codenamed Brownfield).

http://www.coindesk.com/21-inc-confirms-plans-bitcoin-distribution/

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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August 07, 2015, 09:39:21 PM
 #29977

-snip-
I wouldn't be surprised if a company like 21inc is doing it already
-snip-

"A chip in every toaster" people?

There are two ways of making money with bitcoin mining.  One is to mine (risky, often disastrously unprofitable), the other is selling dreams to starry-eyed bitcoiners (easy, fun, works 99% of the time, no tech/con experience required).

Don't think 21inc is planning to do much mining.

The key is to hire a talented and proven shill.  If only there were someone like that around here...

yeah, and despite someone explaining to you what went on, you'd rather apply your own judgment biases w/o any investigation or knowledge:

http://www.toptenz.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/pug.jpg

Well 'Speak of the Devil and he shall appear.'


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August 07, 2015, 09:39:43 PM
 #29978

The economy has been growing since 2010.
The economy has been growing since 2010.
Yes, it has been growing since 2010.

these guys used to be one of the biggest bulk carrier companies in the world.  not so much anymore:


OMG you sound like the conspiracy idiots at Zero Knowledge.  Don't you know [easy credit * car loans] = [economic growth]?

As long as credit (which is money) is growing, the economy is growing as well.
As soon as the total credit sum deflates, the economy deflates as well.
This is in short the 1x1 of capitalism, which is debitism.

Less credit (less money) = less economy
Moar credit = moar economy


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Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
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August 07, 2015, 09:40:46 PM
 #29979


no.  i want an international digital monetary system that is apolitical and fair, controlled by no one, that is cheap, fast, easy and accessible by all ppl's of the world, that has a fixed supply so as to not be inflatable, that will replace gold, & that can take the human race into the next technological growth phase.  there's alot of great things to look forward to.  esp for our kids whom i'm esp worried for and hope to get thru the debt bubble collapse.

Ok, then please do not try to develop software. Let's leave "core devs" doing their job. Everything is going fine.  :-) Eye surgery and software development are two different things.

On the face of it I'd  agree. But after spending  5y in Bitcoin interacting with devs like you I've  learned that code doesn't write itself. It starts with a bunch of you sitting around a table trying to figure out things like if 2% inflation in an altcoin would be better accepted by the average Joe than 1%, or if Snoor sigs will verify faster than ECDSA to improve waiting times in checkout lines, or the decision to implement p2sh so that multiple parties can split the responsibility of securing the money stored at one address; all those sound like technical problems but they really are ideological and economic beliefs based on assumed human behavior coded into the software. Amir Taaki is one of the only devs who flat out admits this and I am thankful for his honesty.

Even this whole block size debate is based on ideology and economic belief about how human beings will react in a given situation. It's been leaking out much more lately as the Cripplecoiners have been reaching desperately for every argument they can get their hands on. Instead of them being truly technical about their arguments, they instead throw out a bunch of armchair logic without any real data as to why Bitcoin can't scale. The reality is that all of them believe they should be able to run a full node (ideology) and they believe Bitcoin should be a settlement layer (false economics). They want the code to enforce those principles so they blockade any one who disagrees with them with technical sounding FUD. There's even financial conflict of interest entering the picture.

Code doesn't write itself.

Since joining this community in March 2013, I've been surprised at this focus on "coders."  In my non-bitcoin work, coders implement algorithms which result from work in physics or signal processing theory; or, the coders work on user interfaces.  In other words, the coders usually implement ideas from the sciences, or work to make software more intuitive and natural for the end user.    

Bitcoin is highly interdisciplinary, sitting at a strange intersection of computer science, physics, economics and sociology.  Bitcoin's code enforces ideas that take into account important insight from all of these disciplines.  The code is just the mechanism for enforcement and the coders are the mechanics. What should be shaping the future of Bitcoin are the best ideas from computer science, physics, economics and insight into human behaviour.  

To view Bitcoin as strictly a "coding project" is myopic.  

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August 07, 2015, 10:05:46 PM
 #29980

the sweet smell of deflation:



Don't worry, if you thought Bennie's helicopter drop was large you haven't seen anything yet. The FED will panic print to dig out of the debt depression hole they've created and the only things that will survive are real assets and real money. XOM owns real assets and will still exist on the other size of the FED's crash and still pay out cash flow from operations, in whatever unit is used as currency at the time.
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