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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1995950 times)
iCEBREAKER
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August 06, 2015, 08:02:48 PM
 #29901





Most of those projected sales are in Asia, where rice farmers are trading their water buffalo for small trucks.

Oh wait, why are you using an outdated, narrowly focused, PROJECTION from 2013?

Did you not notice the key word "PROJECTION" in the name of the .jpg?

Did you also fail to notice the PROJECTION label with the little arrow under it?

Face it buddy, you are way out of your league trying to debate me on the facts of the ongoing financial crises and economic collapse.

Learn to read a fucking chart and follow Zero Hedge for 10 years, then get back to me with your cherry picked Pollyanna projections.



See the green box labeled "Oops?"  That's where you get #REKT.   Smiley


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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Zarathustra
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August 06, 2015, 08:03:52 PM
 #29902


I don't believe for a second that the global economy is growing since 2010.  It may be slowly, painfully 'returning to the mean' of the, say, 2003-2005 era, but definitely not growing.  That's just a marketing line that the Oligarchy-run global media likes to spout, in order to get Average Joe/Jane to empty their savings, start buying new cars, new houses, and investing in the fraudulent U.S. Stock Market again, by telling them that "everything is better now, it's safe again!".  A debt-based world economy only works if the Average Joes/Janes STAY in debt, pretty much forever.

But there's now a huge problem: It's that Average Joes/Janes, the older ones, and now the new Millennials, all have seen through the bullshit of the last financial crisis, and been paying down/off debt, building savings again, opting OUT of new houses, new cars, the over-valued stock market, cutting subscription services, paying cash for their needs, etc.

This has our traditional Oligarch overlords VERY VERY worried.


China vehicle sales: 2004: 3 Million - 2015: 20 Million
US vehicle sales: 2010: 10 Million - 2015: 17 Million



Zarathustra
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August 06, 2015, 08:08:55 PM
 #29903


Learn to read a fucking chart and follow Zero Hedge Knowledge for 10 years, then get back to me with your cherry picked Pollyanna projections.


I would follow those conspiracy idiots at Zero Knowledge not for 10 minutes. Do you know the difference between 10 and 17 million vehicles?
iCEBREAKER
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August 06, 2015, 08:20:55 PM
 #29904

China vehicle sales: 2004: 3 Million - 2015: 20 Million
US vehicle sales: 2010: 10 Million - 2015: 17 Million

Consumer goods like vehicles are intentionally kept pumped up by cheap and easy credit.  That's not an indicator of economic growth any more than flat panel TV sales or NFLX subscribers.

Next you be pointing at Malibu real estate and the stock markets, burbling cheerful slogans about All Time Highs.   Grin

Learn to read a fucking chart and follow Zero Hedge Knowledge for 10 years, then get back to me with your cherry picked Pollyanna projections.
I would follow those conspiracy idiots at Zero Knowledge not for 10 minutes.

Some alleged conspiracies on 0H turn out to be true.  EG: before 2008, everybody yawned when 'paranoid libertarians' complained about the Plunge Protection Team.

But suddenly:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eben-esterhuizen/conspiracy-is-goldman-sac_b_186629.html

Quote
Tyler Durden, one of the best financial bloggers around, have found some circumstantial evidence that suggests the mysterious Plunge Protection Team (PPT) has recently been boosting the stock market. And some might say Goldman Sachs is running the show...

The Working Group on Financial Markets, known colloquially as the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), was created in 1988 by Ronald Reagan, in response to the Black Monday stock market crash in 1987. Their operations have always been shrouded in secrecy, with a Washington Post article from 1997 writing that the group aims to prevent the "smoothly running global financial machine" from locking up.

Conspiracy theorists have long claimed that the PPT manipulates U.S. stock markets by using government funds to buy stocks in the event of market dislocation, but skeptics argue that such an operation would be unworkable.

Durden, author of the ZeroHedge blog, thinks he found some evidence of the PPT's interference with the market. He cites an unusual piece of data on program trading, a part of the stock market that is controlled by mysterious computer programs that use mathematical formulas to buy and sell stocks.

According to the New York Stock Exchange, last week's volume of program trading was 8% higher than the 52 week average. It's strange that program trading volume would be increasing so sharply when overall market volume is declining, says Durden. It's even stranger to note that principal trading, which occurs when a brokerage buys or sells stocks for its own account, is running 21% above 52 week average. New York Stock Exchange weekly volume, on the other hand, is running about 9% below 52 week average.

"A very interesting data point, also provided by the NYSE, implicates none other than administration darling Goldman Sachs in yet another potentially troubling development," writes Durden. "Key to note here is that Goldman's program trading principal to agency+customer facilitation ratio is a staggering 5x, which is multiples higher than both the second most active program trader and the average ratio of the NYSE, both at or below 1x."

And now:  Ex-Plunge Protection Team Whistleblower: "Governments Control Markets; There Is No Price Discovery Anymore"

#REKT  #CONFIRMED


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Monero
"The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine
whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy." 
David Chaum 1996
"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  Adam Back 2014
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brg444
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August 06, 2015, 08:30:04 PM
 #29905

Just happen to be reading Hayek right now and this quote seems strangely relevant to our situation:

Quote
To allay these suspicions and to harness to its cart the strongest of all political motives - the craving for freedom - socialism began increasingly to make use of the promise of a "new freedom". (...) It was to bring "economic freedom" without which the political freedom already gained was "not worth having." (...)

To the great apostles of political freedom the word had mean freedom from coercion, freedom from the arbitrary power of other men, release from the ties which left the individual no choice but obedience to the orders of a superior to whom he was attached. The new freedom promised however, was to be freedom from necessity, release from the compulsion of the circumstances which inevitably limit the range of choice of all of us, although for some very much more than for others. Before man could be truly free, the "despotism of physical want" had to be broken, the "restraints of the economic system" relaxed. (...)

What the promise really amounted to was that the great existing disparities in the range of choice of different people were to disappear. The demand for the new freedom was thus only another name for the old demand for an equal distribution of wealth.

Now it might be a stretch but if we can make a parallel with the block size debate, large blocks stinks of "new freedom".

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
Adrian-x
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August 06, 2015, 10:41:57 PM
 #29906

this is whom yall chose to place your faith in  Huh

http://i.imgur.com/FvIQ9Dh.png

I don't put faith in any developers, I choose to review what they have made and then support or ignore what is. There is no faith here, I dont trust any of them, I from time to time agree strongly with what they say, or disagree for that matter.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
cypherdoc
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August 07, 2015, 12:48:46 AM
 #29907

It's all the rage these days:

Logically, all of that suggests that Bitcoin has replaced gold as the safe haven of choice in times of trouble.

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/has-bitcoin-replaced-gold-as-the-new-safe-haven-cm505737
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August 07, 2015, 12:52:58 AM
 #29908

2 Nasdaq gold articles on the same day?:

NASDAQ Expert: Bitcoin has not replaced gold, but may be useful during the next recession.

http://www.coinfox.info/news/2638-nasdaq-expert-bitcoin-has-not-replaced-gold-but-may-be-useful-during-the-next-recession
shane
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August 07, 2015, 01:18:09 AM
 #29909

so which is better for investmen ?
sell gold buy bitcoin ?
or
sell bitcoin and buy gold  ?

Huh

Sell both. Hold dollars. As long as King Dollar is on the throne pretty much everything else is fighting a losing battle. Eventually that will reverse, but not yet.


Thank's for your suggestion
but I think I will sell my Gold and start to invest at bitcoin Smiley




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sidhujag
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August 07, 2015, 01:39:06 AM
 #29910

so which is better for investmen ?
sell gold buy bitcoin ?
or
sell bitcoin and buy gold  ?

Huh

Sell both. Hold dollars. As long as King Dollar is on the throne pretty much everything else is fighting a losing battle. Eventually that will reverse, but not yet.


Thank's for your suggestion
but I think I will sell my Gold and start to invest at bitcoin Smiley
usd is about half way up its bull trend.. after that who knows

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chriswilmer
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August 07, 2015, 01:46:40 AM
 #29911

Thank you to everyone for your acknowledgement of my paper--it is satisfying to see something you've worked hard on begin to make an impact in the discussion!  Like I said earlier, it was really just a formalization of some of the ideas we've been discussing here over the past months.    

I'm very happy with how the paper was received.  Between public and private comments (and Peter Todd calling it pseudo science) several aspects of the paper were challenged, and now I'm further convinced that the model and results are both useful and valid.  I think the most accurate criticism of the paper was that I should have spent more effort discussing the inter/intra communication issues (the "you don't orphan you're own block" point).1 Hopefully, I'll have time to work on this in the fall.  

I exchanged emails with Greg Maxwell over several aspects of the paper that he questioned.  One point he did make, that I admit is valid but do not personally see as an issue, is that the most profitable "configuration" according to the results from the paper is a single "super pool" made up of ALL the network's hashing power (which would be centralizing).  This would minimize the propagation impedance.  While I agree that this is true, it seems like just another way of looking at the 51% problem.  We already know that if one entity controls a huge amount of hash power they can do nasty things and gain certain advantages.  But it would be nice to find a way to explain why this shouldn't happen with more rigour than the "game theory" or "anti-fragile" fallback positions…


The experiment with the $10 bounties produced a mixed result.  On the one hand, I think it got people who normally wouldn't read such a paper more involved in the discussion, but on the other hand (like brg444 pointed out) it may have made the thread less readable.  I ended up paying out $90 to catch several small errors.  The error I was most pleased to catch was Noosterdam's "innumerate" versus "enumerate."  I think I've been using these words interchangeably my entire life but they actually mean very different things!


1Note that the math is valid nonetheless, as this just affects the propagation delay which was accounted for in the model.  

I can't think of any economic disincentives against centralizing, independent of the block size issue and propagation. You always get economies of scale (e.g., you produce one mask for every new ASIC, but that mask let's you order 10 thousand or 10 million chips depending on your budget/scale... lots of other examples too like data center staff come to mind).

EXCEPT, the game theory arguments. The bitcoins you mine are likely to be worth less simply because people won't like the idea of you having all of the control. Even if people didn't mind that you had 100% control, they would certainly mind if you abused your power.

Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).
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August 07, 2015, 01:51:42 AM
 #29912

For mine, growth since 2010 is like a malnourished child; looks superficially well fed but on closer inspection...

Globally, growth has been tepid and beneath "projections" (see Fed, IMF, EU extensions into the future: all since 08 have been way off mark).

Part of the growth has come from a combination of factors:

- 'directed' speculation from ZIRP

- currency wars (stealing growth from others)

- foreign capital searching for a safe haven and / or yield

- Lax political policies that encourage foreign dollars...UK, Canada, Australia have laughable unenforced foreign investment laws. Chinese and Middle Eastern money has been buying plenty of real estate, land, visas etc

This is not to say some countries haven't benefitted or recovered in some way. The US has a lower unemployment rate but a higher part time workforce. The UK has a booming real estate sector but stagnant wage growth. Both also have rising wealth inequality. Canada & Australia, providing the resources to the trillion dollar Chinese infrastructure build out have seen massive booms as commodity prices skyrocketed. Real estate in these places has also been on a massive melt up even as manufacturing & retail sectors died the slow death of one trick pony economies. Further high base interest rates contributed here by opening up to the carry trade. But now as commodity prices have collapsed so too have their currencies, IR's. Unemployment rates are marginally rising and consumer sentiment are at Great Recession lows.
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August 07, 2015, 02:19:43 AM
 #29913

The economy has been growing since 2010.

The economy has been growing since 2010.

OMG, it keeps getting more hilarious each time you say it.  Tell us another one!   Cheesy Grin Cheesy Grin Cheesy

(Frap.doc, please replace the battery in your sarcasm detector.   Wink)

EDIT:

http://i.imgur.com/QePtpts.jpg

#REKT

These idiots and their arguments/assertions remind me of this toy I used to have as a kid:



The same car can be #REKT over and over again with the minor effort of clipping the doors back on.  Even as a kid of 7 I got bored with the repetition after half an hour or so.  Cypherdoc, for instance, never seems to tire of such entertainment.


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August 07, 2015, 02:34:03 AM
 #29914

This has always been my vision; take over the Forex markets. Are we going to let Bitcoin do this or not?:

http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/daily-interviews/2015/08/06/03/
TPTB_need_war
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August 07, 2015, 04:49:58 AM
 #29915

But only 250.000(sic!) adresses are active ... https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses. In january the number dropped to 116.000.

I don't understand why upthread comments say that you are only quoting data for one wallet. The above data is for all addresses on the block chain. Duh!    Roll Eyes

I think it is very likely that Bitcoin adoption has stalled.

And it is very likely that active use is much less than a million users.

There are likely a million+ users who hold balances though.

I wouldn't worry about it. We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets. Commodities are declining.

Next year we will bottom and see the interest in private assets grow again, but it will be driven more by anti-government sentiment (due to expropriation in the EU) and thus anonymous coins will receive much more interest than Bitcoin.

Hi klee. Thanks for that.

however, i was hoping for a chart resembling this, with gold charted in.



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August 07, 2015, 07:03:49 AM
 #29916

continuing the plunge:

Zarathustra
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August 07, 2015, 07:06:45 AM
 #29917

We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.
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August 07, 2015, 11:24:33 AM
 #29918

We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.

I think TBTB is over exaggerating the effect of a strong dollar regarding bitcoin. While it's true, that the euro will lose purchasing power compared to the dollar, bitcoin will function as a safe heaven to store wealth when europe starts crashing. For example, for me it's much easier to transfer euro to bitcoin than euro to dollar. Also I am in controle of my wealth and I am out of reach of the banks and the state.
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August 07, 2015, 01:13:34 PM
 #29919

Am I missing something? I can't think of a single way to design a system where it is economically advantageous to move away from centralization (where we are intentionally neglecting the possibility that bitcoins might be worth more in a more decentralized environment).

Heat dissipation, possibly.

A huge mining datacenter will produce a lot of heat, and may not be able to make efficient use of it.

Whereas, a million individuals with ASICs in their hot water heater, may be able to utilize close to 100% of the heat. Then their marginal cost to run the miner is close to zero. The difficulty would rise to make the marginal revenue close to zero also, but it would still be an advantage to decentralized mining.
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August 07, 2015, 01:26:13 PM
 #29920

We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets.

This prediction will fail.

First it was this Fall, now it's next Spring.  Roll Eyes
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