Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Adrian-x]

just read this paragraph and realize just what a dictator John Kerry perceives himself to be:

"Well, folks," he said, "ever since the end of the Cold War, forces have been unleashed that were tamped down for centuries by dictators, and that was complicated further by this little thing called the internet and the ability of people everywhere to communicate instantaneously and to have more information coming at them in one day than most people can process in months or a year."

Holy cow - so he believes he can process all this information and without changing his opinions over time, dictator is an understatement, this is a motive for internet censorship.

[cypherdoc]

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:

[cypherdoc]

"People have left the party as the gold story becomes boring for many investors," John Stephenson, portfolio manager at Stephenson & Co., told the news service.

"The world is not falling apart, and the market has shrugged off the political developments. At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/UBS-gold-Fed-dollar/2014/09/16/id/594964/

[inca]

"People have left the party as the gold story becomes boring for many investors," John Stephenson, portfolio manager at Stephenson & Co., told the news service.

"The world is not falling apart, and the market has shrugged off the political developments. At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/UBS-gold-Fed-dollar/2014/09/16/id/594964/

I did sell almost all of my gold earlier this year in tranches. I will keep a small %. Markets are buoyed by one thing and one thing only - expectation of central bank buying. I would be extremely surprised if the fed actually taper QE significantly. After all a rising interest rate will hammer asset prices and who the heck is going to buy the bonds!?

[sidhujag]

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:

1310! Its just where the candlesticks are pointing.. we shall see.

Said this in 2012... probably earlier too... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=380828#post5957650

USDx and Stock market leaving the station together... probably 32k dow and 90-95 usdx atleast.

[cypherdoc]

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:

1310!

Wrong direction

[cypherdoc]

gold rejecting off resistance.  should resume downtrend:

1310! Its just where the candlesticks are pointing.. we shall see.

Said this in 2012... probably earlier too... http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=380828#post5957650

USDx and Stock market leaving the station together... probably 32k dow and 90-95 usdx atleast.

dude!  gold sinking further after hours!

1210 incoming!

[cypherdoc]

clearly POW is failing:

[cypherdoc]

i said this in the Wall St Myth thread.

what Wall St will need to see to get into Bitcoin in a big way is Gold Collapsing, Bitcoin UP.  once they see that money moving into Bitcoin and the increased liquidity that comes with it, then they will be willing to get in in a big way.  both of these factors will be huge inputs into the price.

it's happening now.

[cypherdoc]

$DXY just poked its head over the top of resistance --> Breakout!

[cypherdoc]

the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval.  sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first.  that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on.  do they have the ammunition?

the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin.

[zeetubes]

From the WSJ a few weeks back.

"The SEC usually takes about a year to approve an ETF, but it is still reviewing an application for a bitcoin fund 14 months after it was filed. That fund, to be called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust and carry the ticker symbol COIN, comes from the brothers Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss."

And I'm sure they'll drag it out as long as possible.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/with-a-bitcoin-etf-risk-isn-t-virtual-1410120108

[zeetubes]

"the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin."

Cypher, I'm thinking the average gold investor will be scared to shift into btc if they perceive it to be just another CB controlled market. Out of the frying pan etc. Wall Street will switch its attention to btc when the Fed stops controlling the Dow/S&P. There's too much easy money to be made in the stock markets for the big boys until then, and any shift to safety just seems to go into the dollar and related instruments. The major funds have pulled billions out of the UK markets in recent weeks, mainly because of Scotland's independence referendum and the only beneficiaries of that move seem to be $DXY and other major stock markets. A yes vote will see some nice volatility in the markets, but I'm not sure if bitcoin will see much impact. The voting starts later today.

[STT]

I think taper is a reference to the current process.    So they call it reduction or taper to each month reduce the amount they add every month.   So if I start off after every meal by eating 10 donuts, I declare myself to be on a diet and I taper my calories intake.  Next month I eat 9 donuts after every meal, so on.    Its silly to say Im dieting, of course the word diet is misnomer also.   Its just another point about shaped perceptions in markets right now, every day more debt is added and that is the plan for a long time ahead so far as I know, all their speeches just frame that positively

At a time when higher interest rates are knocking at the door, people don't see the need for gold."

This quote is the reason to buy gold even with its apparent weakness.   Gold will rise fastest when they are actually raising interest rates and the total failure to recognise that possibility is why the market prices wont give a clue right now.   There is no trend upwards for gold, unfortunately it will rely on people finding a purpose for gold fundamentally (not speculatively).   Thats not a definite because theres many alternatives such as bitcoin or just normal national currency, any country which exports is fine to hold longterm I guess.   The problem there might be who they export to and consistency of that, but anything is safer then dollars in that respect which held by exporters without an actual need to, so its strength is false as might gold weakness also be false.

If gov had to pay higher rates it would cause them great problems with their budget.   After not very long, the interest paid would exceed the defence budget and all other spending.    Also with QE it causes problems, debt worth relies on rates payable vs market rates.
The effect from debt worth less is selling in treasuries.   In effect less debt, more dollars would exist unless QE was increased again.   More dollars circulated is very likely more inflation meaning interest rates are exceeded by greater inflation.  

  TL;dr  Higher interest rates will occur alongside much higher inflation, gold will be worth most when rates are far higher then now.  BTC and gold were once equal in price, this is quite possible at $10,000 also

[cypherdoc]

here's a fun one; the volume profile chart of gold for 5y weekly.

you can see that gold failed to ascend the mountain on the vertically oriented VP histogram and has fallen back and is sliding down.  it should slide all the way down w/o much resistance to 1175 before having to ascend a smaller mountain to approx 1130.

VolumeProfile

Description

The Volume Profile study represents trading activity over a time period at specified price levels. Considering the input-defined aggregation period, the Volume Profile plots a histogram showing price distribution, revealing the dominant price values in terms of volume. The width of histogram's row represents the number of actual transactions made within the price interval defined by the row's height.

[cypherdoc]

here's even worse news on the Gold 10 yr weekly chart with VP which covers most of the 11yr bull market that peaked in 2011.

this chart shows that the highest volume of tx's for the last 10 yr period occurred @1311.5.  that little red line is the line i've been drawing on the daily charts the last few weeks as to what once was support and is now resistance.  it appears gold has failed to penetrate to the upside via climbing the mountain and penetrating the red line.  this apparent failure indicates to me that gold has just started to make its definitive move to the downside and should break below the long sideways consolidation channel its been in for the last year and few months.  once it does that, there is little to no support left until about 926.

[cypherdoc]

"the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin."

Cypher, I'm thinking the average gold investor will be scared to shift into btc if they perceive it to be just another CB controlled market. Out of the frying pan etc. Wall Street will switch its attention to btc when the Fed stops controlling the Dow/S&P. There's too much easy money to be made in the stock markets for the big boys until then, and any shift to safety just seems to go into the dollar and related instruments. The major funds have pulled billions out of the UK markets in recent weeks, mainly because of Scotland's independence referendum and the only beneficiaries of that move seem to be $DXY and other major stock markets. A yes vote will see some nice volatility in the markets, but I'm not sure if bitcoin will see much impact. The voting starts later today.

i've been beating on this drum for well over 3 yrs now and i'd bet just about every serious gold investor has become sick hearing about Bitcoin. i know for sure many here are sick of me.  i really don't like the price action in gold as i've tried to demonstrate above and if it starts heading south to the degree i think it will, goldbugs will have to capitulate and run to something.  i think their distaste for the USD is such that a significant portion of the gold market can come to Bitcoin helping to fuel the next rally.  i realize it's wild to think that but its worked beautifully for me personally for all this time.  so far.

[cypherdoc]

the main bull argument i see here for a bottom in the 440 range is we have considerable support as seen in the drawn oval.  sure, there's a chance we push down into the 300's to challenge the 339 low but the bears have to get thru the support level first.  that's going to be difficult due to all the selling that's been going on.  do they have the ammunition?

the other thing i said above is that it looks like gold is heading into a world of hurt starting right about now.  that should be good for Bitcoin.

if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.

obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.

[STT]

which covers most of the 11yr bull market that peaked in 2011.

It covers Chicago futures but I will venture Chicago is not the determiner but on the end of the bull-whip that is the world gold market.     We got China as the largest gold producer in the world, a communist nation also they are likely the worlds largest buyer of gold.   China exports no gold, they do import gold however they declared no increase in gold holdings in years.
How can they justify no gold purchases, I would guess they have citizens close to the government doing the buying of gold or are just lying of course    China holds 1% of its foreign reserves in gold, far less then Italy or many established nations so there is very good reason why they are the greatest determiner of the gold price yet none of this information is on that chart really.

Why would a nation that holds trillions in dollar debt, lacks gold reserves want to hide their gold buying.   These are again fundamental reasons behind the price, its less clear then technical charts unfortunately

[Kupsi]

if anybody here has a Pro version of the Tradingview.com chart function, i'd love to see the Volume Profile for Bitcoin at Bitstamp.

obviously, we'd see the peak of the histogram somewhere around here in the 440 range but it would be interesting to see the exact price and the relative heights around it.

It will also be at peak around 600.