[XMR] Monero Speculation

[medusa13]

Last time I was on Poloniex, I saw that there was a withdrawal limit of something like $25,000 per day or less.
So if your XMR are one day worth 1 million dollars, you'll have to withdraw every day for weeks and weeks to withdraw your XMR?

At those prices, I assume those who have millions of dollars worth of XMR wouldn't be storing them on exchanges anyway (unless they know what they're doing).

but they need the possibillity to sell if they want to. not all at once, but close to.
the situation worries me a lot. due to this there are xmr whales not trading on polo anymore as you may have noticed. i have no problem with holding a coin longterm, but i will never hold something i can not sell if i want to, and yes i want to sell it quickly becasue maybe i need the money quickly.
i really hope we will see good liquidity on the fiat exchage, polo lost all my symapthies and i will never return if i can avoid it. having withdrawl limit/kyc/aml in non usd markets is just bullshit.

investing in xmr from whale point of view became a much higher risk due to this, thats how they caused huge damage to this coin. i can not ignore this. i was a loyal customer, produced several 100 k's of usd volume there, but enough is enough. not to mention the still unpublished lending data, its a shame they do this to their loyal customers. combination out of it smells very bad to me, it would not suprise me having them runing a fractional reserve (ponzi) system allready

anyway, i am confident we will see a new exchange soon. 1 year from now polo wil be completely forgotten(or still hover around somewhere close to 200 btc volume)
i can not see any real growth in xmr as long as this is our main exchange.

its really bad and yes i am angry. we can all be happy xmr has such strong whales with so much confidence in this coin. without them, xmr would have melted down imediately once the anouncment of polo came public. the exchangerate would be nowhere close to what it is now.

so please, dont say "the limit does not hurt", it does hurt the people making this coin valuable. they have more stress, higher risk and arehave to be more carefull investing since they dont know if they will be able to cash out easily.

[ol92]

Last time I was on Poloniex, I saw that there was a withdrawal limit of something like $25,000 per day or less.
So if your XMR are one day worth 1 million dollars, you'll have to withdraw every day for weeks and weeks to withdraw your XMR?

...

I think everyone here would be very happy to see this kind of problem to happen fo XMR!
Seriously, there will be a lot more exchange trading XMR if monero climbs to these kind of price.

[rpietila]

Heavy withdrawal limits are also a great way to run without full reserves. I just don't like it. It's not a joke. It's a real possibility that 50,000 or 100,000 XMR will be equal to 1 million dollars one day. I don't want any funny business on the exchanges.

You should never keep that much money on any exchange.

If you make a large trade, in the real world you have to allow 3 weeks for everything to be settled. In 3 weeks, you get to make about 19 withdrawals about 24500 USD each if you try moderately hard. That is $465,500 absolute maximum.

No, it is not enough after any price appreciation. There will be alternatives by that time.

[iCEBREAKER]

Last time I was on Poloniex, I saw that there was a withdrawal limit of something like $25,000 per day or less.
So if your XMR are one day worth 1 million dollars, you'll have to withdraw every day for weeks and weeks to withdraw your XMR?

I can probably live with that scenario.

Heavy withdrawal limits are also a great way to run without full reserves. I just don't like it. It's not a joke. It's a real possibility that 50,000 or 100,000 XMR will be equal to 1 million dollars one day. I don't want any funny business on the exchanges.

If you don't trust an exchange to be honest, don't use it.  Withdrawal limits allow Polo to minimize coins kept in hot wallet, which is helpful for security (less incentive for haX0Rz) and mitigates damage from successful penetration.

When our XMR at Polo are worth millions, we can either comply with full KYC (DNA swab, dick pic, original K-12 report cards, grandparents' medical records, blueprints of neighbors' houses, pet vaccination certs, etc.) or get an attorney to pry the funds out with a lawsuit.

The temporary pain of losing Polo is worth the eventual yield: fiat<-->XMR, with XMR pairs and margin trading (plus more volume/exchanges outside of USSA jackboot thug control).

[XMRChina]

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

8/8 was chosen for a reason as 8 is a lucky number.

I think Chinese interest in bitcoin during 2013 boom was misunderstood. Its not all about diversification, capital controls or getting money out of China (although it may have been part of it). Chinese investors like booming markets. Just over the last decade look at trends in real estate and stock market. Money chases markets that are moving, and it can happen quickly as we saw for many BTC38 traded alts recently as stock market was struggling.

The recent stock market crash (despite recent failed attempts to keep the market propped up by large institutions and new margin polices to increase liquidity) will lead to more people looking for new ways to put their money.  Financial privacy with fungibility although a new concept to some, will be very appealing to many. Education needs to be a major focus so that people understand what Monero has the potential to do for their lives.  

8/8 will be a great day to introduce China to Monero. We now have cold storage, view key, integrating addresses, xmr.to, mymonero, multiple unofficial wallets, LMDB.

Much more is in development from community members, including crypto kingdom, moneroinvestment.com, new fiat exchanges and more I am probably not aware of. Dev team is making steady progress with everything in roadmap.

About 1 month after 8/8 about half of XMR will be mined so supply/demand balance will start to move more and more in the right direction

As a community, lets get to work! Whatever language you speak, start translating. getmonero and moneroinvestment translations are critical and need to be done ASAP. Transifex is being used by bitcoin and dash for certain websites. Maybe we should do the same

[Bavaria]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Why?

[dEBRUYNE]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Could you elaborate why?

PS: You can buy XMR with USD here -> https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php?coin=XMR

(thanks to othe for finding it)

[XMRChina]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Could you elaborate why?

PS: You can buy XMR with USD here -> https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php?coin=XMR

(thanks to othe for finding it)

Details are still being worked on so I don't want to say too much yet.  Basically the goal is to make as many Chinese people as possible aware of Monero through social and traditional media.  Focus will be on education with new resources and hopefully translations of existing content (everyone please help translate).  Financial privacy with fungibility and optional transparency is a new concept but one that should be very attractive.

Thank you for the altquick link. I was not aware of that business. The more XMR fiat exchanges we have the better. Future regulations/restrictions for this type of business will always be an unknown in China, USA and other countries. Localbitcoins P2P model may be potential long term solution. Moneroclub.com could use more traffic

[dEBRUYNE]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Could you elaborate why?

PS: You can buy XMR with USD here -> https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php?coin=XMR

(thanks to othe for finding it)

Details are still being worked on so I don't want to say too much yet.  Basically the goal is to make as many Chinese people as possible aware of Monero through social and traditional media.  Focus will be on education with new resources and hopefully translations of existing content (everyone please help translate).  Financial privacy with fungibility and optional transparency is a new concept but one that should be very attractive.

Thank you for the altquick link. I was not aware of that business. The more XMR fiat exchanges we have the better. Future regulations/restrictions for this type of business will always be an unknown in China, USA and other countries. Localbitcoins P2P model may be potential long term solution. Moneroclub.com could use more traffic

You're welcome. It sounds promising and I hope it will be fruitful. Whether you like it or not, the Chinese are a big part of the cryptocurrency community, so they should be addressed accordingly.

[XMRChina]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Could you elaborate why?

PS: You can buy XMR with USD here -> https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php?coin=XMR

(thanks to othe for finding it)

Details are still being worked on so I don't want to say too much yet.  Basically the goal is to make as many Chinese people as possible aware of Monero through social and traditional media.  Focus will be on education with new resources andBTC  Financial privacy with fungibility and optional transparency is a new concept but one that should be very attractive.

Thank you for the altquick link. I was not aware of that business. The more XMR fiat exchanges we have the better. Future regulations/restrictions for this type of business will always be an unknown in China, USA and other countries. Localbitcoins P2P model may be potential long term solution. Moneroclub.com could use more traffic

Is there a funded/bounty initiative for translations and is it managed by anyone in particular?

I see 675 xmr pledged so far
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg11777868#msg11777868

I suggest someone (who is trusted by the community) start a thread here to manage this:
https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required

Transifex is still a better long term solution, but much work needs to be done right now.

[GingerAle]

http://itsalmo.st/#chinatime

August 8th will be an exciting day for Monero in China

Could you elaborate why?

PS: You can buy XMR with USD here -> https://www.altquick.co/buy-2.php?coin=XMR

(thanks to othe for finding it)

Details are still being worked on so I don't want to say too much yet.  Basically the goal is to make as many Chinese people as possible aware of Monero through social and traditional media.  Focus will be on education with new resources andBTC  Financial privacy with fungibility and optional transparency is a new concept but one that should be very attractive.

Thank you for the altquick link. I was not aware of that business. The more XMR fiat exchanges we have the better. Future regulations/restrictions for this type of business will always be an unknown in China, USA and other countries. Localbitcoins P2P model may be potential long term solution. Moneroclub.com could use more traffic

Is there a funded/bounty initiative for translations and is it managed by anyone in particular?

I see 675 xmr pledged so far
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg11777868#msg11777868

I suggest someone (who is trusted by the community) start a thread here to manage this:
https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required

Transifex is still a better long term solution, but much work needs to be done right now.

lets move this discussion to main ANN (i quoted that one post above). I speculate bananas.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I speculate the Monero interest rates going down as there is barely nobody shorting it.
Therefore I withdrew a few thousand Moneros from the lending markets outside of Poloniex.
I think the fiat exchanges are a huge potential for XMR.
In the beginning the fiat might be scarce in those exchanges and Moneros plentiful as it is easier/faster to transfer Moneros than fiat, unless the owners of the exchange has a liquidity to provide it (or liquidity is asked from a target investors for the launch).

The fiat exchange enables a lot good things such as well functioning merchant tools (like bitpay) as the Moneros can be sold back to the markets if a merchant wishes so. Obviously it is in our best interest that the merchants will not do it/they have an incentive not to do it at least immediately. An incentive can be a potential rise of the exchange rate.

With fiat exchanges there is really a huge potential to grow this community. Then it can be easily marketed for hedge funds, venture capitalists and so on.

The next step after 1-5 fiat exchanges solely focusing on Monero (not multicoin exchange) is to build an ETF type of an instrument and bring it to stock markets. That's going literally open a heaven for a small coin like Monero if it will be executed as there is wealth worth of billions and even trillions in stock markets.

[iCEBREAKER]

The next step after 1-5 fiat exchanges solely focusing on Monero (not multicoin exchange) is to build an ETF type of an instrument and bring it to stock markets. That's going literally open a heaven for a small coin like Monero if it will be executed as there is wealth worth of billions and even trillions in stock markets.

ETF creation, even using the best crony capitalists available, involves aeons of Herculean compliance tasks.

A nice shortcut is a pink sheet listing for an OTC ETN:

BIT is taking a shortcut, permitted by a rule that that allows holders of a private fund to sell their shares publicly after a 12-month lockup period and completing a less arduous approval process

Risto has held his XMR for about 12 months now...just sayin'   

Of course the markets are melting down ATM, so stuffing the old Roth IRA with XMR isn't as appealing as it used to be.   

[mrkavasaki]

The next step after 1-5 fiat exchanges solely focusing on Monero (not multicoin exchange) is to build an ETF type of an instrument and bring it to stock markets. That's going literally open a heaven for a small coin like Monero if it will be executed as there is wealth worth of billions and even trillions in stock markets.

Yes ofcourse....    Keep dreaming  

[TrueCryptonaire]

The next step after 1-5 fiat exchanges solely focusing on Monero (not multicoin exchange) is to build an ETF type of an instrument and bring it to stock markets. That's going literally open a heaven for a small coin like Monero if it will be executed as there is wealth worth of billions and even trillions in stock markets.

Yes ofcourse....    Keep dreaming  

Might sound distant but if everything goes as planned (Risto planned in Polo trollbox on 2014 that each Monero will be 2000 usd worth). However, I realize, that this is if everything goes as planned.
However, judging this community I think we have the best possibility among all the alt coins to reach there. If Monero will not do it, then probably no other alt will do it either.

I am looking forward to Risto's calculations on how much each Monero will cost if Monero will take the throne of Gold bullion as a store of value in the world.
Boy, I think it is bullish news if Risto still does these calculations. 

[Gillette]

What are your price predictions? No real support until 180k satoshis. Big sell walls at 226, 250, 300K.

[newb4now]

What are your price predictions? No real support until 180k satoshis. Big sell walls at 226, 250, 300K.

5 years from now I think XMR will either be under 1,000 satoshis (some major unknown flaw is found or new superior tech comes along and manages to replace XMR before it can establish itself as the clear market leader) or over .25 B^C (XMR becomes the primary coin for those who want fungibility. I would say it could go higher than .25 BTC but in 5 years I think some of the old guard may still be trying to stick with BTC via sidechains for privacy despite its drawbacks)

Keep in mind when I say .25 BTC I mean .25 BTC

I think BTC prices will be much higher in fiat terms 5 years from now so .25 BTC in 5 years is likely to be much more in fiat terms than .25 BTC today

XMR has great potential, but the risk for ruin remains

[jehst]

What are your price predictions? No real support until 180k satoshis. Big sell walls at 226, 250, 300K.

5 years from now I think XMR will either be under 1,000 satoshis (some major unknown flaw is found or new superior tech comes along and manages to replace XMR before it can establish itself as the clear market leader) or over .25 B^C (XMR becomes the primary coin for those who want fungibility. I would say it could go higher than .25 BTC but in 5 years I think some of the old guard may still be trying to stick with BTC via sidechains for privacy despite its drawbacks)

Keep in mind when I say .25 BTC I mean .25 BTC

I think BTC prices will be much higher in fiat terms 5 years from now so .25 BTC in 5 years is likely to be much more in fiat terms than .25 BTC today

XMR has great potential, but the risk for ruin remains

If any coin breaches 20-25% of the entire crypocurrency market cap, it has a chance at becoming #1 and supplanting bitcoin. XMR would be in that position at 0.25 XMR/XBT.  But I don't think we should hope for that. It sets a very bad precedent if the king of cryptocurrencies (bitcoin) were exposed as but a mere mortal. Even if bitcoin ends up being slow with high fees compared to other cryptocurrencies, it can still offer the heaviest confirmations, the longest history, and the most cultural capital. I'd like to see XMR at #2 with 10% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Faster, more fungible, and more decentralized. Perfect for commerce.  

[americanpegasus]

Well, all the world's gold is worth about 8 trillion dollars. 
 
All the world's silver is worth about 1 to 2 trillion dollars. 
 
Not sure about platinum. 
 
Also consider that the world reserve currency doesn't last forever, as we are seeing with the zenith of the U.S. Dollar.  It's silly to expect that bitcoin would forever hold that top spot, and indeed, with the accelerating technological progress towards the singularity, bitcoin may well indeed be supplanted by Monero (which wouldn't be catastrophic). 
 
Bitcoin and Monero fill two totally different needs.  Bitcoin is a slow, lumbering blockchain that is completely public.  It is wonderfully suited for large scale transfers between governments and businesses that people want to do openly.  For this reason I would expect that bitcoin will become further centralized and the price must rise as well.  The future "digital gold" will have some unique characteristics to it. 
 
Monero will act as a perfect currency, and when nations or businesses need to transact in secret, this will be the one they turn to.  I see no reason why bitcoin and Monero can't *both* be worth an XX-trillion dollar cap someday.  Remember crypto isn't any asset class that has existed before it.  It doesn't necessarily follow all the old rules. 
 
It was very wise to set an initial limit of Monero at a number comparable to bitcoin's limit.  This actually plays a psychological trick on the future public who just want things to be simple.... bitcoin is public and Monero is private.... both have about 20 million total macro-units.  Therefore, to my simple monkey brain, it would follow that both should be valued at about 1:1. 
 
Think of the Euro and Dollar, or the Euro and the Pound.  These joust in value due to geographic restrictions, and it's likely that bitcoin and Monero may joust in value due to functional restrictions. 
 
Honestly, I think that if (when) Monero rises to $2000 each, those who sell out of the majority of their stake are going to be cursing themselves for the rest of their life when it goes on to become one of the world reserve currencies by 2030 and is worth around $300,000 each. 
 
Remember, money is made up, as is the value assigned to it.  Monero is worth whatever people *believe* it is worth.  And with the first private blockchain that can be accessed by the entire world?  The value of these things as we go forward is going to dwarf any reasonable number that you think it should be valued at... simply because our monkey brains aren't equipped to deal with the ramifications of an entire species suddenly wanting the same scarce resource in a 10 year period.... this will go down in history as crypto-mania.... and will be the greatest wealth transfer in history. 
 
You are fucking lucky to be reading this in 2015. 
 
Now, what good are you going to do for the world with your wealth?  Everyone is going to have seven wives and a waterfall pool, but don't be as selfish as the last crop of ultra-rich.  Use your wealth to make our species better, and don't horde it like a bunch of fucking Smaugs.

[jehst]

Well, all the world's gold is worth about 8 trillion dollars.  
  
All the world's silver is worth about 1 to 2 trillion dollars.  
  
Not sure about platinum.  
  
Also consider that the world reserve currency doesn't last forever, as we are seeing with the zenith of the U.S. Dollar.  It's silly to expect that bitcoin would forever hold that top spot, and indeed, with the accelerating technological progress towards the singularity, bitcoin may well indeed be supplanted by Monero (which wouldn't be catastrophic).  
  
Bitcoin and Monero fill two totally different needs.  Bitcoin is a slow, lumbering blockchain that is completely public.  It is wonderfully suited for large scale transfers between governments and businesses that people want to do openly.  For this reason I would expect that bitcoin will become further centralized and the price must rise as well.  The future "digital gold" will have some unique characteristics to it.  
  
Monero will act as a perfect currency, and when nations or businesses need to transact in secret, this will be the one they turn to.  I see no reason why bitcoin and Monero can't *both* be worth an XX-trillion dollar cap someday.  Remember crypto isn't any asset class that has existed before it.  It doesn't necessarily follow all the old rules.  
  
It was very wise to set an initial limit of Monero at a number comparable to bitcoin's limit.  This actually plays a psychological trick on the future public who just want things to be simple.... bitcoin is public and Monero is private.... both have about 20 million total macro-units.  Therefore, to my simple monkey brain, it would follow that both should be valued at about 1:1.  
  
Think of the Euro and Dollar, or the Euro and the Pound.  These joust in value due to geographic restrictions, and it's likely that bitcoin and Monero may joust in value due to functional restrictions.  
  
Honestly, I think that if (when) Monero rises to $2000 each, those who sell out of the majority of their stake are going to be cursing themselves for the rest of their life when it goes on to become one of the world reserve currencies by 2030 and is worth around $300,000 each.  
  
Remember, money is made up, as is the value assigned to it.  Monero is worth whatever people *believe* it is worth.  And with the first private blockchain that can be accessed by the entire world?  The value of these things as we go forward is going to dwarf any reasonable number that you think it should be valued at... simply because our monkey brains aren't equipped to deal with the ramifications of an entire species suddenly wanting the same scarce resource in a 10 year period.... this will go down in history as crypto-mania.... and will be the greatest wealth transfer in history.  
  
You are fucking lucky to be reading this in 2015.  
  
Now, what good are you going to do for the world with your wealth?  Everyone is going to have seven wives and a waterfall pool, but don't be as selfish as the last crop of ultra-rich.  Use your wealth to make our species better, and don't horde it like a bunch of fucking Smaugs.

Isn't silver's market cap less than 50 billion dollars?

http://rt.com/op-edge/silver-hedge-bitcoin-position-274/