[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are. 
 
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

There are many inactive users. People who were mining or trading last year when Monero was new and "hot" and many of those still own coins as passive speculation but they are not active users now. In some cases this was not entirely voluntary as the wallet stopped working on their computer (32 bit, too little RAM, etc.) but most were just people who moved on once Monero was not the latest thing. It also includes people who were interested but put off by the command line, and eventualy gave up waiting for a GUI. Some of them come back and show up on this thread or the main thread when there is a significant price bump.

[americanpegasus]

I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

There are many inactive users. People who were mining or trading last year when Monero was new and "hot" and many of those still own coins as passive speculation but they are not active users now. In some cases this was not entirely voluntary as the wallet stopped working on their computer (32 bit, too little RAM, etc.) but most were just people who moved on once Monero was not the latest thing. It also includes people who were interested but put off by the command line, and eventualy gave up waiting for a GUI. Some of them come back and show up on this thread or the main thread when there is a significant price bump.

 
  
I guess for my purposes of my speculation calculations, the number should be: "number of people who believe Monero has value".  I think I would probably estimate that somewhere in the low thousands currently.

[americanpegasus]

I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

Just check how many addresses with a balance on the blockchain  

 
  
Considering we have 2,200 subscribers to /r/Monero, I'll assume there are about 5,000 to 7,000 people worldwide interested in Monero as a store of value/transaction.  Of course it's all speculation anyway, but I just need a point of reference to calibrate the chart with. 
 
Bullshit will beget bullshit in this case.  The number can be updated later if needed.

[saddambitcoin]

I think that could be a good estimate, but I'm not sure how quality the reddit subscriber # is. There was a period of time earlier this year, where that number was jumping up rapidly, like hundreds per day, with no apparent uptick in posting activity.

That being said, there does seem to be some organic growth and activity there now.

[americanpegasus]

 
  

[americanpegasus]

Also, if you want to play around with the Monero Speculation Spreadsheet yourself, you are free to download it at:  
  
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k1267hufb5426gj/Monero%20Speculation%20Tool.zip?dl=0  
  
I uploaded it in a few different formats, Excel modern, Excel compatibility, and a web spreadsheet format.  The whole thing should work pretty well with you just modifying the two values on the right side but feel free to do whatever you want with it.  (Note: the description of the formula for Column C is incorrect, even though the formula is.  This doesn't affect the functionality of the spreadsheet, but it should read: (MMV x [Speculation Variable ^ Network Acceleration Factor]), my bad.)
  
 
  
(it's an Excel file, but there aren't any macros and it's a pretty basic spreadsheet built from scratch - I assure you as much as I'm able to that it's clean)

[americanpegasus]

One more: Inspired by an Episode VII poster I saw online.   

[rpietila]

I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

Just check how many addresses with a balance on the blockchain  

 
  
Considering we have 2,200 subscribers to /r/Monero, I'll assume there are about 5,000 to 7,000 people worldwide interested in Monero as a store of value/transaction.  Of course it's all speculation anyway, but I just need a point of reference to calibrate the chart with. 
 
Bullshit will beget bullshit in this case.  The number can be updated later if needed.

In summer 2014, there was already about 7,000 XMR accounts in Poloniex alone. (Even still, I might say that the global number of users is under 10k atm).

[GingerAle]

I'm about to release a network speculation chart... but I need a reasonable guess as to how many Monero users there currently are.  
  
Would you say 5,000?  10,000?

Just check how many addresses with a balance on the blockchain  

 
  
Considering we have 2,200 subscribers to /r/Monero, I'll assume there are about 5,000 to 7,000 people worldwide interested in Monero as a store of value/transaction.  Of course it's all speculation anyway, but I just need a point of reference to calibrate the chart with. 
 
Bullshit will beget bullshit in this case.  The number can be updated later if needed.

In summer 2014, there was already about 7,000 XMR accounts in Poloniex alone. (Even still, I might say that the global number of users is under 10k atm).

to me whats mind boggling is the amount of nodes running monero. That reddit post indicates there are ~70. Which is *good* considering the amount of change set to occur over the next year, but surprising considering the interest in the technology. Just goes to show the consequences of a huge memory footprint and compiling requirements. Which reminds me, I need to update that VM linux compile video.

[camu6]

Whole thread sleeping? Massive buying going on, >0.0026!

[kurious]

Monero currently adjusting in effective dollar price terms to BTC's fall?

It's still way what it was recently if this is indeed an indicator.

Whatever the reason, green candles are good to see...

[kurious]

Whole thread sleeping? Massive buying going on, >0.0026!

Hope that's not all - around 0.0026 seems resistance level, and not massive on the bid side just now.  That said an attack on 0.003 would be refreshing, let's see if it's got legs.  Might attract some of that bored money from the new No.1 in Polo volume to take a punt.

[medusa13]

i woke up and thought shit, close to 50 cents again? damn i have to buy some!
some others had the same idea, what a suprise

looks ike it didnt need much to push price up nearly 20%, refreshing!
the day it spikes up and we all think "fuck this shit it will come down again anyway" will be the day it clears all resistance. dont know what day this will be, chances are high its not today, or is it? 

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

[SmoothCurves]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

[vokain]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.

[americanpegasus]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.

 
 
The original public ledger is worth a trillion dollars at least, in the end game.  I can't imagine a situation where crypto reigns and the longest running ledger in our species doesn't carry some large value. 
 
That doesn't mean that it will be the *most* valuable, only that its value should be pretty secure over time. 
 
I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.

[vokain]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.

 
 
The original public ledger is worth a trillion dollars at least, in the end game.  I can't imagine a situation where crypto reigns and the longest running ledger in our species doesn't carry some large value. 
 
That doesn't mean that it will be the *most* valuable, only that its value should be pretty secure over time. 
 
I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.

There are multiple possible end games.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think one source might be also some hard core bitcoiners starting accumulating Monero.
They are not publishing it to drive the price up but I assume they have realized btc is not going to 1000 usd each any time soon or even never again. Bitcoin was a good investment for those who invested into it in 2011-2012 but not so good anymore.

BTC will definitely reach $1000 usd at some point in the future. The Block Reward halving guarantees it.

You seem so sure.

 
 

I would actually not be surprised if Monero eventually overtook Bitcoin, and possibly another currency even overtook Monero.

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.
People who critisize Monero always seem to critisize of its large Database which makes it challenging to download into PC if one doesn't trust in the privacy of a webwallet.

That being said, Monero might indeed being replaced by some coin but personally I do not think it will happen any time soon. The new coin should be somehow better than XMR. For me it is hard to imagine what features could that mysterious new coin own.

And I am not personally even surprised by the market reactions. I hope we have OTC markets taking larger buy orders for big bitcoin whales who are in the process of shifting their paradigm.

[dreamspark]

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.

You think the chances are that XMR survives in 150 years?!

There are multiple possible endgames but most of my predictions say that XMR doesn't succeed in the scope that we're talking about at all let alone to succeed and still be around in 150 years.