[XMR] Monero Speculation

[americanpegasus]

I think we live at a time in human history where it is silly to even speculate about *anything* 150 years down the road.  
  
We might as well be sitting around the bar in 1885 discussing what railroad company will dominate the globe in the year 2010.  By that point the focus of sentience may have shifted to an operating level we can't even conceive of at the moment.  
  
So it would behove us to speculate a few decades down the road, at most.  We should aim to build and support products that have a reasonable chance of still existing in 2050.  
  
Could "x" theoretically still be useful and valuable in 2050?  In Monero's case, the answer is yes.
  

[kurious]

I agree with this one.
However, I have been pondering how Monero looks after 150 years? And guess what? Chances are it still survives thanks to tail emission which makes sure there is always someone(s) mining it and processing transactions.

You think the chances are that XMR survives in 150 years?!

There are multiple possible endgames but most of my predictions say that XMR doesn't succeed in the scope that we're talking about at all let alone to succeed and still be around in 150 years.

150 years? Cough. Splutter.

I am pretty sure I am not going to make it that far, so it is academical to me.   And a year, Jeez even one year is a long time in Crypto.

I hope we won't have to wait for anything LIKE that long to see a little pleasing action.

If it isn't making waves in the next year or two far bigger than now, something else could easily arrive which will surpass it.

Advance, or fade away.  We are looking good right now, there is palpable and reassuring momentum.  But ultimately developments, events and the market will decide.

[explorer]

I think we live at a time in human history where it is silly to even speculate about *anything* 150 years down the road.  
  
We might as well be sitting around the bar in 1885 discussing what railroad company will dominate the globe in the year 2010.  By that point the focus of sentience may have shifted to an operating level we can't even conceive of at the moment.  
  
So it would behove us to speculate a few decades down the road, at most.  We should aim to build and support products that have a reasonable chance of still existing in 2050.  
  
Could "x" theoretically still be useful and valuable in 2050?  In Monero's case, the answer is yes.
  

10 years seems a very long time to speculate, given current global financial and political tensions.  We could all be searching desperately for our next meal by then.

[slap]

reverse HS, beginning on aug 11th
http://themerkle.com/market-analysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-08152015

furthermore traders imo dont trust btc anymore as a solid investment, the bitching about blocksize etc, the flashcrash recently.
eth isnt a reliable investment atm, too many questionmarks, i think.

Bottomline is xmr is better Hence higher prices.


Risto, could you tell us something about any plans regarding a Finnish company willing to invest in xmr?

[dnaleor]

Nice uptrend channel. I hope this can continue for a long time!

[ArticMine]

reverse HS, beginning on aug 11th
http://themerkle.com/market-analysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-08152015

furthermore traders imo dont trust btc anymore as a solid investment, the bitching about blocksize etc, the flashcrash recently.
eth isnt a reliable investment atm, too many questionmarks, i think.

Bottomline is xmr is better Hence higher prices.


Risto, could you tell us something about any plans regarding a Finnish company willing to invest in xmr?

There has been a significant amount of damage done to Bitcoin already by the whole blocksize debate. Unfortunalty I have come to the conclusion that this will very likely get worse before it gets better. This begs the question what to do with a Bitcoin holding even if one already has a significant exposure to Monero. I came to the conclusion that my case 80% CAD 20% XMR mix would out perform 100% XBT with considerably lower risk under most scenarios, and have acted accordingly over the last couple of days, by selling the bulk of my remaining XBT for an 80% CAD 20% XMR mix.

[hodlmybtc]

Nice uptrend channel. I hope this can continue for a long time!

Markets always tend to overshoot and especially cryptocurrencies.

You can see this in every rally (and crash) of BTC and alts.

If XMR keeps trending up it will break out of the channel and is currently on te verge of doing that since the first spike to 270k.

270k currently is resistance, when that is broken there is a clear path to 300k, then the real fun will probably start.

[hodlmybtc]

Seems pretty good time to break out of the downtrend since 270k at the moment, 12H MACD green, daily MACD about to turn green.

12H logarithmic:



Going on vacation in 2 days and I bet all the action happens that week

[explorer]

270k currently is resistance, when that is broken there is a clear path to 300k, then the real fun will probably start.

300k not that exciting, but besting 430k would spark real interest, for me.  Anything less than ~100% climb in crypto is just... commonplace.

[iCEBREAKER]

I am interested in looking into a Monero based technology. Is there a block size limit with Monero?

Welcome to Monero Mountain, home of the Wild & Free^® Monero Mustangs^TM!

Monero uses adaptive parameters instead of a fixed block size limit.

– Penalty-free block size is increased.CryptoNote doesn’t have hard limits: all parameters are adaptive. Max block size is adaptive also. It is recalculated the same way difficulty is. In case miner creates block bigger than 1*CURRENT_MAX_BLOCK_SIZE the penalty is applied to block reward (i.e. block reward is decreased). In case miner creates block bigger than 2*CURRENT_MAX_BLOCK_SIZE such block will not be accepted by network.For blocks below penalty-free block size this logic isn’t applied. I.e. even in the blockchain with all blocks empty you can create a block of this size with full block reward. In reference code this penalty-free block size is 10Kb – this is good for 2-3 private transactions (strong privacy is given with a mixing factor of 5 or more; no privacy is given with 0). It’s better to have a bit more.

http://www.satoshis.guru/home/coin-info/monero/

New Mustang orientation video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEVm1dMn5Ks

[hodlmybtc]

300k not that exciting, but besting 430k would spark real interest, for me.  Anything less than ~100% climb in crypto is just... commonplace.

Yeah that's why I said that's when the real fun probably starts.

Anyways 300k is a somewhat significant resistance level, it's the 50% fib from the 430k high to the 168k low and there also is horizontal resistance there because that level acted as support for quite a while after the 430k high.

I agree with going above 430k will be very interesting.

[americanpegasus]

Well as you guys saw in that chart I posted, the only way to create a sustainable rise like that is to increase the "network size".   The more people that hold and transact in Monero the more valuable it automatically becomes.  
  
I tell on average about two new people per week about Monero.  These are tech savvy people that have heard of cryptocurrency before and are vaguely aware of the rise of bitcoin.  I usually spend some time leading them down a day dream of "What if" we had bought bitcoin when it was a silly speculation dream, and then let them tell me what it would take to repeat bitcoins success.  I'll briefly mention that a thousand alt-clones have come and gone since then but I'm into what may be the next big thing since bitcoin.  
  
I'll talk about how Monero is pretty much the Holy grail of digital money and how nothing else on the market even comes close.  Typically the people that *get* digital money are naturally pretty skeptical so I make sure not to come off as too evangelical.  I make it clear I believe cryptocurrency is the future but I believe Monero still represents a risk...  Albeit one with an incredible risk/reward ratio.  Finish by telling them that it's not that hard to own Monero even...  They can buy bitcoin through Coinbase and then transfer it to Monero through Poloniex, but they shouldn't do so unless they do some more reading first.  I wouldn't want anyone to blindly trust me in matters of money -  I want them to be convinced themselves.  
  
Anyway, ideally you can find a few bright people who get as excited about it as you do, and want to tell some people themselves...  
  
Word of mouth is the most powerful thing on the planet.  And there's so many topics of conversation that can come up around Monero from ideals to practicals.  
  
Bottom line: the only way Monero increases in value is if the network deserves it by growing.  It only grows if more people want Monero and want to use it.  The GUI is coming and that will help, but the early early money?  That's now.  And that's opportunity you can get people excited about.

[Monopoly]

Seems pretty good time to break out of the downtrend since 270k at the moment, 12H MACD green, daily MACD about to turn green.

12H logarithmic:



Going on vacation in 2 days and I bet all the action happens that week

All position are positive for higher price but i think for at least 3 weeks price rage will be between 0.0021 and 0.0025

[aminorex]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

[binaryFate]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

I doubt we will see any significant DNM use without proper multi-sigs.

EDIT: I mean, more so that "cosmetic" UI tools, I see multi-sigs as a real enabler towards much more serious usage.

[aminorex]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

I doubt we will see any significant DNM use without proper multi-sigs.

EDIT: I mean, more so that "cosmetic" UI tools, I see multi-sigs as a real enabler towards much more serious usage.

Particularly so for distributed DNM, and in the long-run I agree. But currently only a miniscule proportion of trades are escrowed,  so I don't see it as a huge impediment.  I would support a development bounty for mulitisig.  What is the current best venue for such?

[GingerAle]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

I doubt we will see any significant DNM use without proper multi-sigs.

EDIT: I mean, more so that "cosmetic" UI tools, I see multi-sigs as a real enabler towards much more serious usage.

Particularly so for distributed DNM, and in the long-run I agree. But currently only a miniscule proportion of trades are escrowed,  so I don't see it as a huge impediment.  I would support a development bounty for mulitisig.  What is the current best venue for such?

The forum funding system.

Post the idea here:

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas

Then once its agreed that it should be more than an idea, its moved to

https://forum.getmonero.org/7/open-tasks

In open tasks, developers can pitch their development plan (cost / timeline)

Then, when a particular pitch is supported by the community, the pitch is created here as a new thread by the developer:

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required

Where the funding is raised. Once funding goal is met, it is moved here:

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress

Where we can all cheer on the magic of development.

edited to add - for the record, I do not condone DNM, and I do not believe their adoption is necessary, wanted, or desirable for Monero's success.

[QuantumQrack]

Liquidity has come back. That is what I like to see. My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines, until DNM adoption increases currency use.  Being the most liquid privacy-enabled coin in the universe makes the selection of XMR a no-brainer.

I doubt we will see any significant DNM use without proper multi-sigs.

EDIT: I mean, more so that "cosmetic" UI tools, I see multi-sigs as a real enabler towards much more serious usage.

Particularly so for distributed DNM, and in the long-run I agree. But currently only a miniscule proportion of trades are escrowed,  so I don't see it as a huge impediment.  I would support a development bounty for mulitisig.  What is the current best venue for such?

The forum funding system.

Post the idea here:

https://forum.getmonero.org/6/ideas

Then once its agreed that it should be more than an idea, its moved to

https://forum.getmonero.org/7/open-tasks

In open tasks, developers can pitch their development plan (cost / timeline)

Then, when a particular pitch is supported by the community, the pitch is created here as a new thread by the developer:

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required

Where the funding is raised. Once funding goal is met, it is moved here:

https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress

Where we can all cheer on the magic of development.

edited to add - for the record, I do not condone DNM, and I do not believe their adoption is necessary, wanted, or desirable for Monero's success.

Speaking of that, what happened to the mining software initiative?  And what happened to the post?

[GingerAle]

(snip)

Speaking of that, what happened to the mining software initiative?  And what happened to the post?

The initiative is still on, as far as I know. djm34 has been working on it, but he's a little discouraged by the ambiguous nature of the first milestone. I've found where he hangs out on freenode, so I'll try to see what the deal is.

Re the post : unfortunately it got lost / misplaced / sacrificed to the gods of the internet. Fluffypony is aware of the anomaly, but its unfortunately low on his priority list right now. In the meantime, I cloned the most final version of the pitch in the bitcointalk mirror of the open source mining software thread... which is... here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=656841.msg12094899#msg12094899

if anyone can help make milestone #1 any better, that would help. I tried and tried to get djm34 to step up to the plate to detail his own milestones, prices, etc. But he wanted no part in that. So, I had a field day with it. FYI - milestone #1 is meant to replace an outright advance. djm34 wanted an advance for the work, but no one in the community wanted to pony up the 1000 - 1500 xmr. So, milestone #1 is kind of a secured funding regardless of hashrate increase. So djm34 would get something, and the monero infrastructure would get something (a cleaner, rebuilt open source nvidia mining package)

And I speculate bananas.

[jehst]

My general expectation is for USD Price floor to rise inversely as block reward declines

This is correct.

But DNM's likely will stick to BTC out of inertia. Most DNM busts have nothing to do with blockchain analysis. It's all sting vendors and controlled deliveries.