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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312387 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
ungchy
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October 29, 2015, 05:51:51 PM
 #10501

Hi,

I don't know if this is the correct place or not for that.

I'm currently writing an arbitrage bot in golang and thinking about sharing some of it (compiled versions).
Is there interest for something like it?

You may ask why i would share something like that if it is profitable?
Well i wan't to contribute a bit to Monero and if we have good arbitrage between exchanges we have a potentially
bigger orderbook which i think is good.

Also i would like to get a bit input from different person on how it is working etc...
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razen489
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October 29, 2015, 05:54:52 PM
 #10502

The Price hasnt been intersting lately to say least
https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
jehst
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October 29, 2015, 05:56:19 PM
 #10503

Hi,

I don't know if this is the correct place or not for that.

I'm currently writing an arbitrage bot in golang and thinking about sharing some of it (compiled versions).
Is there interest for something like it?

You may ask why i would share something like that if it is profitable?
Well i wan't to contribute a bit to Monero and if we have good arbitrage between exchanges we have a potentially
bigger orderbook which i think is good.

Also i would like to get a bit input from different person on how it is working etc...

That sounds good on paper, but there's really only one XMR pair on one XMR exchange. There won't be even 1 BTC worth of XMR to arb in a week

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
kazuki49
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October 29, 2015, 06:00:14 PM
 #10504

hash rate is just a consequence of the price depending most directly on it, Monero is the most expensive cryptonote coin (Bytecoin doesnt count because of the premine) so it has the highest hash rate, same goes for Bitcoin hash rate a coin so expensive lots of people (corporations are ppl too) want to mine it, Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

@smooth congratulation on your 10000th post Cheesy
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October 29, 2015, 06:02:24 PM
 #10505

Well there is Bittrex mainly.
I don't know whats currently up with hit-btc but they have usually a lot of arbitrage opportunities
and a really freaking fast API.
Cryptsy has done a Gox from what i have read so, meh also there api sucks.
Bter had the last time i tried it a really terrible and unpredictable API (Half the orderbook just vanished between calls...)
Are there any more "obscure" exchanges out there?
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October 29, 2015, 06:13:41 PM
 #10506

Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

 
 
Even today the dual link between mining power and price still befuddles me.  It is an amazing chicken & egg moebus strip.  If anyone has any further reading or mathematical analysis on the considerations of such a problem, I'd love to read it. 
 
Are they both just on ramps to the same highway: increased interest in the coin compels people to want the currency; some choose to mine it and some choose to purchase it from an exchange.  One drive the hash rate up, and one drives the price up (through scarcity).  Are they both responsible for the price?

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smooth (OP)
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October 29, 2015, 06:25:31 PM
 #10507

Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

 
 
Even today the dual link between mining power and price still befuddles me.  It is an amazing chicken & egg moebus strip.  If anyone has any further reading or mathematical analysis on the considerations of such a problem, I'd love to read it. 
 
Are they both just on ramps to the same highway: increased interest in the coin compels people to want the currency; some choose to mine it and some choose to purchase it from an exchange.  One drive the hash rate up, and one drives the price up (through scarcity).  Are they both responsible for the price?

There is no spoon
SmoothCurves
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October 29, 2015, 06:27:16 PM
 #10508

Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

 
 
Are they both just on ramps to the same highway: increased interest in the coin compels people to want the currency; some choose to mine it and some choose to purchase it from an exchange.  One drive the hash rate up, and one drives the price up (through scarcity).  Are they both responsible for the price?

I would agree with this. When my friends and I discovered Bitcoin, some of us bought them directly. Some chose to look into mining immediately.
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October 29, 2015, 06:35:25 PM
 #10509

I am lamenting the emission cut did not pass a year ago. Currently we just get loads and loads of cheap XMR on top of what we have, and when the value is realized in the wider audience, it feels almost as bad as a premine, with great concentrations of coin in the hands of people who already were rich and smart and forward-looking.

The intention is not to punish from such qualities, but now the reward is so excessive it makes me blush  Embarrassed

"Equal opportunity" loses some of its allure when nobody is using it (and then complain afterwards, same as with BTC)

I beg to disagree here. People overestimate how high the emission rate actually is. Furthermore, changing the emission rate would have broken the social contract and would probably look way more sketchy from the outside than the fast emission rate. I also agree with wachtwoord on this matter.

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October 29, 2015, 06:49:29 PM
 #10510

Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

 
  
Even today the dual link between mining power and price still befuddles me.  It is an amazing chicken & egg moebus strip.  If anyone has any further reading or mathematical analysis on the considerations of such a problem, I'd love to read it.  
  
Are they both just on ramps to the same highway: increased interest in the coin compels people to want the currency; some choose to mine it and some choose to purchase it from an exchange.  One drive the hash rate up, and one drives the price up (through scarcity).  Are they both responsible for the price?

1. I think of mining as just a different way of buying bitcoin. Miners don't control the price. They are just trading their resources for bitcoin in a roundabout way. That makes them buyers. So I think of them like any other buyers. Some buyers are buying bitcoin with stolen money. Some buyers will sell right away. Some buyers will hold. Miners are just one type of buyer.

2. Miners only stand out as an important group of buyers (with regard to price) when overall trade volume is so low that the daily block reward constitutes a significant portion of the daily trade volume. So during high volume periods such as the one we're in now, miners are not as significant as they were during low-volume periods such as during Summer 2013.

3.
So:
If 3600 bitcoins is .0001% of the daily trade volume, then miners simply insignificant, no matter whether 100% of them dump their coins or 100% of them hold.  

But if 3600 bitcoins is 1% of the daily trade volume in an uncertain sideways market, then miners are important players.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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October 29, 2015, 06:54:09 PM
Last edit: October 29, 2015, 07:09:27 PM by americanpegasus
 #10511


There is no spoon

 
  
My only conclusion can be that neither price nor hash rate matters.  Interest in the currency to transact with and hold as savings is what matters.  Like other social networks (religion, language, government, Facebook) the network is given power through initial rules that many people agree on.  This is why it always comes back to "the technology".  Because ultimately that's all there is to it - the rules we agree to transact by.  
  
All things must be derived from that singular principle: these are mathematical rules that (if adopted) would suit a large number of intelligences - therefore I (speaking of myself) will adopt them and encourage others to adopt them as well.  These rules are not necessarily the best rules for every given situation, but they make great sense given our current circumstances.  Additionally, if we can agree on a set of mathematical rules to change these rules, that will make the entire 'system' all the more powerful.  
  
Indeed, further abstraction actually creates a stronger product.  
  
For example, US based representative democracy flourished not only because the laws themselves could be changed, but also the *process* to change the laws could be changed (constitutional amendments).  
  
I would venture that a large percentage of the world would still be Christians if every tenant of that faith could be updated through consensus mechanisms, including such things as belief in the Bible or belief in any sort of divinity at all.  
  
Wow.... a sort of epiphany here.    
  
A shared social protocol of any type is extremely valuable because it gives intelligences (and I use that to refer to inevitable co-existence of humans and AI) a way to meaningfully transact with each other.  However the protocol always breaks down once new realities conflict with the unyielding rigidity of the system.  Monarchy collapsed because the people needed a system that defied the right of the King to rule... since the system could not keep up, it had to be destroyed and rebuilt.  Similarly, representative democracy has been remarkably resilient over history (even though it's only been a few hundred years, consider a logarithmic time scale and that those hundreds of years represented the equivalent to eons of development) specifically because it includes many consensus mechanisms to update itself to respond to the changing needs of the populace.  English has done the same, despite the letters forming a rigid backbone.  If there should ever come a time when society has need of more than 26 letters to represent complex concepts, English will be abandoned.  
  
Gold is on its last legs by this reasoning because the rigidity of its need to exist as a physical quantity has forced other systems to overthrow it.  
  
Bitcoin will meet the same fate unless it institutes protocols to change itself to meet different demands of both scale and populace, possibly radically.  Monero too will meet this fate unless we commit that we will change the ledger as necessary to meet the changing needs of reality.  
  
With all social systems, it's the network that's important, not the specific rules.  Great expenditure is needed to break and reform an existing network, whether it be social, financial, or governmental.  Far better that protocol includes mechanisms within that allow it to reshape itself without being broken and remade.  
  
Eventually all such networks may combine into one network, of pure energy.  This might take a long time to achieve though, as it would require total cooperation (or is it total competition?) from all conceivable participants.  Indeed, the universe itself may be a singularity of one such network that achieved perfect consensus, that consensus being the laws of physics themselves.  Perhaps there is some truth after all to our entire universe being one big quantum 'blockchain' that is constantly trying to solve for the next acceptable 'solution'. 
  
Or perhaps it's the opposite... matter and energy have agreed to these principals we find ourselves 'trapped' in and there will come a time when that consensus to the laws of physics (to be bound by the speed of light, to equally abide by gravity, etc.) will no longer serve the needs of reality.  At that point, it will come time to break that even this consensus and update it.  Perhaps this is the definition (ultimate goal?) of an intelligence singularity: when the contents of a protocol become so aware of the protocol itself they learn to break the protocol itself.  This would be the equivalent of a hyper-advanced AI discovering how to reverse entropy or break the speed of light.  Once one set of protocols that you exist within can be broken, it logically follows that all others will be broken all the way up the chain of reality.  That truly is an event horizon because there's no way to understand what might happen after that. 
  
Anyway, back on topic: it is important that if we want Monero to be resilient that we not only launch with the best technology *now* but also include several layers (even if they are social, and not explicitly mathematical) that allow us to update that technology as needed, and even update the way we agree to update the technology (sorry, a few social derivatives in play there).  
  
Only now can I really see what the creator of this video truly meant:
https://youtu.be/QH2-TGUlwu4?t=3s

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October 29, 2015, 06:59:30 PM
 #10512

Monero hash rate is keeping it afloat technically, most miners don't want to secure networks because of the good in their hearts, greed is the fuel, thats the mark of Satoshi's genius, a system that if the price rises the hash rate will inevitably follow.

 
 
Even today the dual link between mining power and price still befuddles me.  It is an amazing chicken & egg moebus strip.  If anyone has any further reading or mathematical analysis on the considerations of such a problem, I'd love to read it. 
 
Are they both just on ramps to the same highway: increased interest in the coin compels people to want the currency; some choose to mine it and some choose to purchase it from an exchange.  One drive the hash rate up, and one drives the price up (through scarcity).  Are they both responsible for the price?

I would argue they are both responsible for the price, but currently the lack of scarcity is affecting the price with ~90% weighting. I.e., if all of the coins on the market were from individual, unsubsidized miners, the price would be at least $1 just based on electricity break-even, if not more. Probably more, because it takes forever to get the kind of coin volume that sloshes around poloniex (thousands of coins). Regarding price, its unfortunate that anti-pooling measures haven't been developed (you kill the pool, you kill the botnets... at least their current implementation anyway. Although it would hard to hide a multigig blockchain on an infected computer.. but there could be countermeasures). But, as has been mentioned before, even satoshi said something about botnets securing the network, so, whattaya gonna do.

regarding that, how would the monero network defend itself against a hostile attack by a large computational power? I.e., if Tianhe 2 (http://www.top500.org/lists/2015/06/), for whatever reason, unleashed its 33.86 petaflop/s of power on our network... ??

< Track your bitcoins! > < Track them again! > <<< [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qomqt/what_a_landmark_legal_case_from_mid1700s_scotland/] What is fungibility? >>> 46P88uZ4edEgsk7iKQUGu2FUDYcdHm2HtLFiGLp1inG4e4f9PTb4mbHWYWFZGYUeQidJ8hFym2WUmWc p34X8HHmFS2LXJkf <<< Free subdomains at moneroworld.com!! >>> <<< If you don't want to run your own node, point your wallet to node.moneroworld.com, and get connected to a random node! @@@@ FUCK ALL THE PROFITEERS! PROOF OF WORK OR ITS A SCAM !!! @@@@
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October 29, 2015, 07:06:02 PM
 #10513

I am lamenting the emission cut did not pass a year ago. Currently we just get loads and loads of cheap XMR on top of what we have, and when the value is realized in the wider audience, it feels almost as bad as a premine, with great concentrations of coin in the hands of people who already were rich and smart and forward-looking.

The intention is not to punish from such qualities, but now the reward is so excessive it makes me blush  Embarrassed

"Equal opportunity" loses some of its allure when nobody is using it (and then complain afterwards, same as with BTC)

I beg to disagree here. People overestimate how high the emission rate actually is. Furthermore, changing the emission rate would have broken the social contract and would probably look way more sketchy from the outside than the fast emission rate. I also agree with wachtwoord on this matter.

Well, we all agree with the argument about breaking the social contract and eventually reached 100% consensus on the matter. But we can still feel sad about the things we can't change.

In keeping with my post above, I believe the emission is important sometimes and unimportant at other times. But if we look at different altcoins with varying inflation, it does not seem that supply inflation of coins has been significant in recent history:

By the end of 2015, LTC's supply inflation will be about 33%. Dogecoin's supply inflation for 2015 will be about 5.26%. Monero's supply inflation in 2015 will be even higher than Litecoin's. Peercoin's supply inflation for 2015 is slightly lower than Dogecoin's. This is a huge range. But when we look at the LTC, XMR, PPC, and DOGE charts, do we really see much of a difference?

Larger macroeconomic effects (namely, an extended post-bubble bear market) has hammered all the altcoins into the ground regardless of their individual supply inflation schedules. So in the end, I think emission has basically been a nonfactor over the past year.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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October 29, 2015, 07:09:52 PM
 #10514

Most likely Monero fails.
Invest accordingly.
The markets are telling us the probability of Monero's failure has risen significiantly.
Weren't you buying a ton just last month?

Couldn't you see him thru?  He was selling about a month ago at around 0.0022. That's why all that spam. Now it seems he plans to start buying back. Ha made allready few such loops in last 17 months.
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October 29, 2015, 07:11:18 PM
 #10515


Larger macroeconomic effects (namely, an extended post-bubble bear market) has hammered all the altcoins into the ground regardless of their individual supply inflation schedules. So in the end, I think emission has basically been a nonfactor over the past year.
 
 
Rules and speculation don't matter when a larger 'bubble' (or entity) exerts pressure on a system.  Perhaps its this constant collision of 'bubbles' of various magnitudes from the largest to smallest scales that create the randomness and uncertainty that prevent us from correctly estimating anything at all.

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October 29, 2015, 07:23:52 PM
 #10516

regarding that, how would the monero network defend itself against a hostile attack by a large computational power? I.e., if Tianhe 2 (http://www.top500.org/lists/2015/06/), for whatever reason, unleashed its 33.86 petaflop/s of power on our network... ??

I analyzed this exact thing once before on this thread. The best way to compare is by power usage. The Monero network at about 15 MH/s is probably something like 3 MW. That's respectable on the Top 500 list, and one of the really big supercomputers, if dedicated to the task, could probably overtake it, but we are not so far (in orders of magnitude at least) from that no longer being the case.

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October 29, 2015, 07:32:00 PM
 #10517


I analyzed this exact thing once before on this thread. The best way to compare is by power usage. The Monero network at about 15 MH/s is probably something like 3 MW. That's respectable on the Top 500 list, and one of the really big supercomputers, if dedicated to the task, could probably overtake it, but we are not so far (in orders of magnitude at least) from that no longer being the case.

 
  
That's pretty amazing that not only does Bitcoin represent the most powerful "virtual computer" on Earth, but even the toddler Monero network will soon surpass the most powerful actual computers in the world.  Distributed and decentralized truly is the future.  
  
In fact, I would bet that the "super computers" of the future come as a result of the government/corporations subsidizing laptops and desktops for large amounts of people - on the condition you agree to donate unused computing cycles to be part of a mandatory bot net.  This is similar to the scheme that 21 Inc is attempting.  

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October 29, 2015, 07:44:11 PM
 #10518

Most likely Monero fails.
Invest accordingly.
The markets are telling us the probability of Monero's failure has risen significiantly.


The efficient market hypothesis is wrong, because it is based on human psychology and is unreliable in small assets.  
  
At which point did bitcoin have a higher chance of failure, the last time we were at $300 or now?  If the efficient market hypothesis is correct, shouldn't it be well over $300 by now?  
  
Sometimes there are stronger forces than simply the will of all players.  
  
Also, Monero is actually keeping pace/slightly rising against the USD.  Keep in mind that bitcoin is on a tear right now, and the eventual ramifications of that should be obvious.  
  
Think for yourself and don't follow the herd, even if that herd finally decides that bitcoin is a worthwhile investment.  

Dont respond to that guy he is an imbecile.  Have you seen his youtube video?

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October 29, 2015, 08:05:45 PM
 #10519

Come on Monero, in from near the start. Still dwindling! Sad

More shitty alts having a surge  SadSad



fs
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October 29, 2015, 08:20:26 PM
 #10520

Come on Monero, in from near the start. Still dwindling! Sad

More shitty alts having a surge  SadSad

fs
 
  
As I always say: you aren't buying Monero to make 20% and cash out (hopefully).  Don't worry about this week, or this month, or this year.  Help build, and hold savings in Monero.  To the max extent possible, begin transacting with Monero for goods and services.
  
If you own 1/10,000th of the Monero network now, you will always own 1/10,000th (subject to slow erosion by perpetual emission).  Stop trying to predict the movement of the herd and simply go wait by the grass; that's my strategy.  
  
The others will figure it out eventually.  Wink

Account is back under control of the real AmericanPegasus.
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