Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[AbeSkray]

Except what are we going to export?  We have given up manufacturing endeavors for financial wizardry endeavors and intellectual property.

The US manufacturing base has increased every decade right up til the present.  We make more stuff, for less cost, then ever.  And we continue to do so.  It's true that manufacturing has fallen off as a percentage of GDP, but it's still huge.

Yes. The United States is currently the top manufacturing nation in the world.

• The United States is the world's largest manufacturing economy, producing 21 percent of global manufactured products. China is second at 15 percent and Japan is third at 12 percent.
• U.S. manufacturing produces $1.6 trillion of value each year, or 11.2 percent of U.S. GDP.

Mods: Sorry if this is off-topic, perhaps we should split a new thread?

[LZ]

[kokjo]

let just start it now: Sell! Sell! Sell!

i already sold mine

[zby]

let just start it now: Sell! Sell! Sell!

i already sold mine

That's just one big offer.  I cannot tell if this is the same thing this time - but I've seen someone manipulating the market in this manner.

[kokjo]

That's just one big offer.  I cannot tell if this is the same thing this time - but I've seen someone manipulating the market in this manner.

now there is two. i also seen it before.
and its likely that the price will fall in a correction... i happed before, after a big rise.
i sold mine at $10.

[darkwon]

Day's Volume (Currency)  920,463.20 USD


New Record?

30d cumulative is 7.4M so that's a trade increase of almost 400%.. The guy running this thing with 0.65% fee is making 12k $ per day now. This is getting big too fast, the downswing will be extreme i fear -.-

[marcus_of_augustus]

That's just one big offer.  I cannot tell if this is the same thing this time - but I've seen someone manipulating the market in this manner.

now there is two. i also seen it before.
and its likely that the price will fall in a correction... i happed before, after a big rise.
i sold mine at $10.

Could be those early adopters are fire-hosing this thing down so it cools off a little. Run away rallies would be detrimental to the long term success. If true it presents a very good case for the long term success, with an indication of insight, foresight, etc of what is needed to roll this thing out successfully ... they are relinquishing some part of possible future gains to cement in major future gains .... and then again it could all be speculation and it is some miner who needs to take a dump.

[Current-C]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

Not to derail the thread but don't you think there's plenty of political motivation right now?  Unsustainable spending and debt levels will certainly encourage the money spigot to continue to flow, even if the political class denies it.  There is far more motivation for that then to drastically cut spending.  In addition all it takes is one major creditor to decide our bonds aren't safe and it could start a run, with the Fed as the only remaining buyer. 

Don't get me wrong its looking more and more like another deflationary scare this summer first but that'll just be an excuse to print more.  I agree the bankers prefer the slow and steady inflation but I think they're finally losing control of the system.

On a bitcoin note who's rooting for 18? 

A sovereign debt default by the US is not just remote, it would signal to the world's bondholders that there was no safe haven left on Earth.  Gold, silver and some classes of commodities would shoot for the moon, but that is not the same as inflation.  Inflation, at it's core, is expansion of the monetary base beyond the growth of the underlying economy; which favors those with first access to the new currency.  Hyperinflation, therefore, is the panic expansion of monetary base by political will.  No bankers would voluntarily do this, they would rather have massive deflation because with deflation at least their con game could potentially resume after the crunch.  Once hyperinflation begins, there is no historical evidence that it can be stopped prior to the total destruction of the currency itself; if for no other reason than the public has already lost trust (in the government, in the currency itself) and will actively avoid transacting in the currency at all, and when they must will actively avoid holding that currency.  This results in a massive increase in velocity, as every buyer is trying to spend what they have before the value goes down further.

If this were to happen to the US (not impossible) where then would the wealthy find haven?

I'll take the Austrian definition of inflation as an increase of the money supply, period.  Even inflation that only keeps pace with economic growth still robs the people of the increased purchasing power they would have had if the inflation had not taken place.  Rising prices in gold and silver are not inflation per say, however they are the "canary in the coal mine" that to a certain degree indicates inflation expectations.  I agree that hyperinflation is not in the interest of bankers or politicians, as hyperinflation represents a loss of control over the system for them.  My argument would be that we are actually in the early stages of this happening, and Bernanke and his political buddies are trying to orchestrate just enough inflation to make the debt level manageable while retaining confidence in the dollar as a safe haven of value.  I cannot imagine at this point that there are many sophisticated investors or major governments left that actually believe in the strong dollar policy.  I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are actively trying to dump US bonds without tipping off the market that that is their intention.  A true debt default by the US (meaning an acknowledgement that they will not honor payments) is extremely unlikely, which is why they will go the inflation route instead, and blame rising prices on anything but their policy of printing money.  At this point they are between a rock and a hard place:  Default and declare bankruptcy, or print and risk loss of confidence in the dollar.  I just can't imagine a politician standing up and telling the people "sorry, we can't pay you your social security this month because we owe China their interest payment".  

Maybe the wealthy will buy bitcoins?  Seriously the truly wealthy will do just fine as they know enough to hold their wealth in inflation proof assets.  

Rally to 15 then shallow pullback before we test 20?  I can't believe we're talking 20 already . . .

[MoonShadow]

On a fundamental note: USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation:

Actually, no, it's not.  As bad as that is, the hyperinflationary stage of a fiat currency always requires a political driver.  Not to say it can't happen in the near future, but there would still need to be some major black birds landing on Swan Lake.  Mild inflation favors the banks and those closely connected to them, but they know that massive inflation kills the golden goose.  The central bankers would not permit such inflation rates unless they are forced into that position, which for all practical purposes means that political authorities have forced them to do so.  In the case of the Wiemar Republic, that political force came from outside the country.  In the case of Zimbabwe, it was a misguided series of political decisions by an uneducated dictator with tribal tendencies that none of his yes men had enough balls left to say anything.

Not to derail the thread but don't you think there's plenty of political motivation right now?  Unsustainable spending and debt levels will certainly encourage the money spigot to continue to flow, even if the political class denies it.  There is far more motivation for that then to drastically cut spending.  In addition all it takes is one major creditor to decide our bonds aren't safe and it could start a run, with the Fed as the only remaining buyer. 

Don't get me wrong its looking more and more like another deflationary scare this summer first but that'll just be an excuse to print more.  I agree the bankers prefer the slow and steady inflation but I think they're finally losing control of the system.

On a bitcoin note who's rooting for 18? 

A sovereign debt default by the US is not just remote, it would signal to the world's bondholders that there was no safe haven left on Earth.  Gold, silver and some classes of commodities would shoot for the moon, but that is not the same as inflation.  Inflation, at it's core, is expansion of the monetary base beyond the growth of the underlying economy; which favors those with first access to the new currency.  Hyperinflation, therefore, is the panic expansion of monetary base by political will.  No bankers would voluntarily do this, they would rather have massive deflation because with deflation at least their con game could potentially resume after the crunch.  Once hyperinflation begins, there is no historical evidence that it can be stopped prior to the total destruction of the currency itself; if for no other reason than the public has already lost trust (in the government, in the currency itself) and will actively avoid transacting in the currency at all, and when they must will actively avoid holding that currency.  This results in a massive increase in velocity, as every buyer is trying to spend what they have before the value goes down further.

If this were to happen to the US (not impossible) where then would the wealthy find haven?

I'll take the Austrian definition of inflation as an increase of the money supply, period.  Even inflation that only keeps pace with economic growth still robs the people of the increased purchasing power they would have had if the inflation had not taken place.  Rising prices in gold and silver are not inflation per say, however they are the "canary in the coal mine" that to a certain degree indicates inflation expectations.  I agree that hyperinflation is not in the interest of bankers or politicians, as hyperinflation represents a loss of control over the system for them.  My argument would be that we are actually in the early stages of this happening, and Bernanke and his political buddies are trying to orchestrate just enough inflation to make the debt level manageable while retaining confidence in the dollar as a safe haven of value.  I cannot imagine at this point that there are many sophisticated investors or major governments left that actually believe in the strong dollar policy.  I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are actively trying to dump US bonds without tipping off the market that that is their intention.  A true debt default by the US (meaning an acknowledgement that they will not honor payments) is extremely unlikely, which is why they will go the inflation route instead, and blame rising prices on anything but their policy of printing money.  At this point they are between a rock and a hard place:  Default and declare bankruptcy, or print and risk loss of confidence in the dollar.  I just can't imagine a politician standing up and telling the people "sorry, we can't pay you your social security this month because we owe China their interest payment".  

You just described a political trigger.  I have already acknowledged this possibility, although I don't consider that likely considering the number of inflation hawk in the House.  I was merely contesting the implication that hyperinflation is a monetary phenomenon, and could be predicted with economic tools.

[S3052]

indeed very strong rally , supported by volume and huge momentum.

Many people seem to be surprised how fast and far a bitcoin rally goes.

There may be people selling at 20$, 50$, 100$ and think they did well... Only to wonder when they look at the exchange rate of 1,000$.

this is not a forecast but just an application from what already happened a couple of times on btc/usd: surprise to the upside (rallying 1,000% in just a couple of weeks)

[Bimmerhead]

S3052, do you post your updates on Facebook?  I'd like to follow you there if I could.  I hardly ever use Twitter...

[Drifter]

S3052, do you post your updates on Facebook?  I'd like to follow you there if I could.  I hardly ever use Twitter...

You could always RSS the blog

[S3052]

S3052, do you post your updates on Facebook?  I'd like to follow you there if I could.  I hardly ever use Twitter...

I thought the same about twitter weeks ago, and now i need to admit that it is much more effective than facebook.
Let me think about setting sth up on facebook, but I would like to avoid double work. Is there an automatic twitter/ facebook synchronization?

[Drifter]

S3, if you're using Tweetdeck (Which is almost necessary for more than casual twitter users IMO), you can set up a facebook account to link to it as well, and you can put the same status update to both accounts at the same time.

There are other ways I believe but if it wasn't for tweetdeck I don't think I'd even use twitter. It can be useful for so many things.

[error]

Twitter to Facebook: 5 Ways to Post to Both

[AtlasONo]

USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation

roflmao! 

[S3052]

.

[FreeMoney]

USD is soon going to go into hyperinflation

roflmao! 

It won't be as funny as you think it will.

[Findeton]

Here a brief public update.http://bit.ly/mqrFNG


Please donate some bitcoins (or more modestly: bitcents):
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Everyone thinking: oh god! this is a nightmare! tomorrow it will collapse to 0.01 (I dream with that, I would buy so many bitcoins!)!

The educated: approaching buying zone.

[billyjoeallen]

massive volume on up days, lousy volume on down days, which are over-the weekend when banks are closed and no more Paypal purchases. It's simple miner panic and an excellent buying opportunity. Mark my words, tomorrow the upward trend will continue.