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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
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Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 430719 times)
netrin
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September 30, 2011, 03:29:30 AM
 #1261

I was referring to your comment August 18, here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.msg464673#msg464673




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September 30, 2011, 05:43:33 AM
 #1262

Correct.

And the strength of an analyst come through to see that the market is doing something differently and then adapt the forecast as we did thereafter on Aug 26:

"The short term rally that started at 5.74 $ came to an end yesterday with a decline below 10.5 $ and 10 $. This is a bearish sign and shows that bitcoin prices have entered a more protracted correction again . Further downside is now more likely. It will take a move above 14 $ to confirm the mid term rally continuation.
 
A test or even break of the key level of 5.74 $ is now quite probable."

And exactly this happened.

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October 02, 2011, 12:01:26 PM
 #1263

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.



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October 02, 2011, 12:45:00 PM
 #1264

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.




Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?

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October 02, 2011, 01:28:09 PM
 #1265

Bitcoins will drop below 4 in near weeks. There is no economy, no any significant turnover. Almost all turnover is generated by speculations and investments. # of transactions per block in blockexplorer are smaller and smaller over time. So why should it go up? It just a bursted bubble in a current level of popularity.

Instead of inspecting mtgox graphs you better inspect internal block chains for a volume and transaction dynamic over time to predict bitcoin value.

Assertions lacking evidence!

Also, real exchange of Bitcoin IS increasing. See: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed

That number is guaranteed to increase - so this does not give you any information at all.
That chart depicts %, which is not guaranteed to increase. Unfortunately, that chart only goes up to June, and most of that activity I presume is mining pools, exchange deposits/withdrawls, and gambling.
Edit: I've got no idea why we use % of total BDD rather than the last say 2100 blocks. I do admit, that number is guarenteed to increase and is therefore preety pointless.
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October 02, 2011, 02:10:40 PM
 #1266

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?



The cunt from yestaerday is still a viable option. But sometimes I prefer a simplified view which is the triangle.

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October 02, 2011, 02:48:42 PM
 #1267

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?



The cunt from yestaerday is still a viable option. But sometimes I prefer a simplified view which is the triangle.

Excuse me, but.....what cunt Huh?! Does this word have any other meaning that I don't know?

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October 02, 2011, 04:59:37 PM
 #1268

I am curious if this plays out this way or not, but anyhow. Why is there a triangle now? I don't see a big difference to 27th & 28th in your graph.
And what are those small roman numbers ?  Huh
Maybe I shouldn't look into this forum at all  Tongue

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October 02, 2011, 05:21:53 PM
 #1269

Brief update.
It looks as if we are in a triangle with likely break out to the upside.

Is it correct to say the zigzag correction that was yesterday has morphed into a triangle?


The cunt from yestaerday is still a viable option. But sometimes I prefer a simplified view which is the triangle.

Excuse me, but.....what cunt Huh?! Does this word have any other meaning that I don't know?

The COUNT from yesterday (= wave count). See elliottwave.com

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Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

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October 02, 2011, 05:23:06 PM
 #1270

The Roman symbols are elliott wave count labels. see elliottwave.com

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October 02, 2011, 05:27:49 PM
 #1271

thanks!

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netrin
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October 02, 2011, 05:54:26 PM
 #1272

No matter how tightly you draw the channels (intraday, closing, or weighted averages), it seems to me that the year long trend (pink) is now also the short weekly trend (also pink) squeezed by the monthly trend (red). We've seen similar short trends in July, but this support looks much stronger (flatter). But today, rather than a triangle, I see a falling wedge (reversal).


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October 02, 2011, 05:58:25 PM
 #1273

There are two alternate ways to draw the triangle.Both are valid options.

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October 02, 2011, 06:00:54 PM
 #1274

But I prefer the elliottwave count.


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October 04, 2011, 07:11:39 PM
 #1275


See historic comparison...
"Stable" prices happen all the time in financial markets, and it also happened for bitcoins already many times. See here for an example:

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October 07, 2011, 09:08:20 PM
 #1276

bullshit your triangles, sorry.

While we have bitcoin turnover consisting of mtgox trades (trying to fool each other), this bubble will defalte.
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October 08, 2011, 01:43:14 PM
 #1277

As promised a while ago, we have just published the first bitcoin charts and bitcoin sentiment study publicly. With this, we introduce the Bitcoin Bull Bear Index http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html.
Thanks to all voters to make this interesting analysis possible.


And, for the next week, the poll is reset.

What is your view?

Up?
Down?
Same as now?
Don't know?

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October 08, 2011, 02:31:15 PM
 #1278

I remember in middle September you wrote that the buying zone is 3.5 to 5  - now it is supposed to be 3.4 to 5.  Is the long term trend actually going down?
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October 08, 2011, 03:53:11 PM
 #1279

No, the long term trend is not going down, but the market is dynamic and so it the bitcoin charts analysis, where we look into the charts on daily basis.
The more price data we have the more accurate can we run bitcoin price forecasts

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netrin
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October 08, 2011, 06:36:33 PM
 #1280

Is this a reasonable short term wave interpretation?
Code:
Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
($5.0)
             ($4.5)

                  i      ($4.2)
     I     II           ii                 III
                   ($4.0)     iii    ($4.0)
                                    iv            
       ($3.8)                  ($3.8)      v           (<$3.8)
                                                a b c IV     i-v V
                                           ($3.?)                (<$3.?)
Friday 19:30 21:00 02:00 11:00 14:00 18:00 22:00 Sunday---------> Monday
or

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