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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 941360 times)
lebing
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September 23, 2014, 11:56:52 PM
 #1861

language analysis never ends

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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ssmc2
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September 24, 2014, 12:04:05 AM
 #1862

I'll wait to come back to this thread when the next surge happens. The master is good at callin' those tops.  Grin
Odalv
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September 24, 2014, 12:07:31 AM
 #1863

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)
My interpretation is that he is simply saying that the market is in no hurry to drop below the weekly lower BB and thus "bury" the market.
I dont necessarily interpret this to mean its not going to happen. Just that, its not in a hurry to today.
My interpretation is that he was probably answering to "how're there Lucif's shorts i wonder.... Huh Kiss both of them...." and the answer probably means "Don't hurry to bury me, I'm not hurt by the shorts". Which, in turn can mean that
a) either shorts were small or that
b) he had covered them or that
c) market will still go down, just wait.

Pick your version.  Smiley

It looks like "Don't hurry to bury", "market will still go down, just wait" (to me) ... , but I did not pick that version. :-) (Maybe, it is good, but I'm not day trader.)
Wary
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September 24, 2014, 01:00:43 AM
 #1864

language analysis never ends
  Grin

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
Void_80
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September 24, 2014, 04:22:13 AM
 #1865

language analysis never ends
It's d) option :
 I wounded by my shorts, although still alive in hospital on terminal support... Angry
Zarathustra
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September 24, 2014, 09:09:39 AM
 #1866

I think a lot of people in here are under the misconception that closing price is completely uninformative in a market that is traded 24/7. It is not.

It might carry a bit less weight ...

I guess much less weight, if any, but who knows!? Nobody, since this is the first real 24/7 market on the planet.
helluvaname
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September 24, 2014, 01:53:39 PM
 #1867

Don't hurry to bury hehe ;-)

the meaning of this phrase is crystal clear to anyone who speaks russian.
but I will leave the explanation to the topic starter, in case he cares to explain it himself
kehtolo
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September 24, 2014, 02:29:42 PM
 #1868

Quick bit of searching and i think I know what he means.. and of course, i also think he is right.

It will go down, but it's not in a hurry.. more to the upside for now before it does actually go down.

1st para here kinda gives the game away.. http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/24/Forex-Don-t-Rush-to-Bury-The-U.S.-Dollar.aspx#axzz3EF9GsIFM

The next 24 hours are critical!
masterluc (OP)
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September 24, 2014, 05:12:08 PM
 #1869

While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)



And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).



So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.

thefiniteidea
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September 24, 2014, 06:38:13 PM
Last edit: September 24, 2014, 07:11:16 PM by thefiniteidea
 #1870

Should see some support here...

$378.78 (price) x 13.28 million (total BTC in circulation) = $5.03 billion mkt cap - Support at round numbers






Looks like we saw that support hold out pretty well... Let's see if that resistance at $453 is enough to suppress the price in bound...



4 HOUR CHART...



I'm still very bearish on Bitcoin long term. The Fed is on course to make high-risk investments look relatively unattractive with these looming rate increases. Take a look at the charts for DDD for example... a 3D Printing company worth $5 billion (like BTC) that follows a very similar investment/trading pattern as bitcoin. It lost 50% since it's Dec/Jan high (like BTC) --  same time Fed announced it would begin tapering. Also, all of these high-risk investments are on the cusp of breaking significantly lower, and timed nicely with the end of QE in October/November...

The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin.
jaredboice
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September 24, 2014, 07:26:33 PM
 #1871

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
sgbett
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September 24, 2014, 07:36:15 PM
 #1872

Off the support, I suspect we'll trend slowly lower within the .5 bounds for a few weeks before dropping further into the lower bounds...





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JustAnotherSheep
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September 24, 2014, 07:40:44 PM
 #1873

While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)

And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.



However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.



Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still Smiley


Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
thefiniteidea
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September 24, 2014, 07:43:28 PM
 #1874

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
Tzupy
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September 24, 2014, 08:09:10 PM
 #1875

...
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.



However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.



Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still Smiley


I hope this bear market won't further unfold like 2011, not only because the price might fall below 200$, but also because it could last another 5 - 6 months, and I'm bored of it.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
jaredboice
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September 24, 2014, 08:47:56 PM
 #1876

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
thefiniteidea
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September 24, 2014, 09:46:03 PM
 #1877

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.

I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.

You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.

My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell.  If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
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September 24, 2014, 10:19:14 PM
 #1878

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.

I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.

You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.

My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell.  If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.

Why people(market makers) have perception that bitcoin is high-risk investments. Can/Will this be changed ?
h3speros
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September 24, 2014, 10:28:56 PM
 #1879

"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."

They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets.  Their manipulation techniques are much more limited.  It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin.  Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?

Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.

The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.

The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.

What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.

I hear you on the code.  But I also mean the price.  They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets.  For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.

I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.

You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.

My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell.  If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.

Why people(market makers) have perception that bitcoin is high-risk investments. Can/Will this be changed ?

It is very much less high-risk investment than what it was when we were at $10.

only crypto market predictions, no bullshit https://twitter.com/h3speros
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September 24, 2014, 11:24:30 PM
 #1880

While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)

And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).

So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.



However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.



Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still Smiley



Beautiful discovery. Wish I had found it Cheesy

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