Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[zeetubes]

What happens when houses can be 3D-printed? A lot of the cost of new housing is *still* labor, but that could very well suddenly drop to almost 0 in the next 10-20yrs. That would mean a big drop in per-sq-ft housing costs across the board. Great for then-first-time-homebuyers, bad for anyone who purchased before that change. That'll really make it obvious that most housing is consumption, not investment. Exception being desirable land/location. But all the nice houses in people farms in lackluster locations should be considered mostly consumption.

Used houses are durable consumer goods, like used cars.

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.

Around 30 years ago in Australia, a boat builder developed an ultra cheap house made out of the same material he built yachts with. Even though his designs easily passed every test the building industry usually required (earthquakes, fire, termites etc), the government managed to stop him selling them in australia. I think the average size house was around $6k at the time using his method.

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[justusranvier]

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.

People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

[tvbcof]

What happens when houses can be 3D-printed? A lot of the cost of new housing is *still* labor, but that could very well suddenly drop to almost 0 in the next 10-20yrs. That would mean a big drop in per-sq-ft housing costs across the board. Great for then-first-time-homebuyers, bad for anyone who purchased before that change. That'll really make it obvious that most housing is consumption, not investment. Exception being desirable land/location. But all the nice houses in people farms in lackluster locations should be considered mostly consumption.

Used houses are durable consumer goods, like used cars.

Not entirely because of the land that usually comes with a dwelling, but yeah, people should view housing far more along those lines than they currently do.

One of the main expenses in building a new house is associated with regulatory issues.  I've found this out the hard way over the course of 2014.  An interesting read is 'Habitat-I' about land.  Even my very greenie friends say "nobody thinks like that."  Probably this friend is correct about what almost all people 'think', at least in the U.S., but it is fair to say that the prescriptions outlined in the document are indistinguishable from what we see today.  At least in my part of the world (Pacific Northwest.)

I'm actually quite fascinated by the 3-D house idea but I think it fair to say that it will itself never be 'labor free', and there will always be a lot of other infrastructure to set up.  It's also some distance out.

Perhaps less far out would be the dream of cramming most of the population into 'stack-n-pack' housing localized to planned population centers.  Some of the 'elites' might be able to enjoy some freedom since they have the wisdom to know how to save the world from the scourge of the unwashed human masses, but they will be a rare breed...and one that I personally want nothing to do with.  I've long planned to abandon 'socialism' when it threatened to be a force to be reckoned with.  I stayed with it to long and to some extent relied to heavily on my own personal definitions of it.  Mea culpa time.

[cypherdoc]

Gold down again:  - $5.80

[cypherdoc]

ghash deprecation continues: 24%

is it possible 3's a charm and we never see one pool bump up against 51% again due to Nash equilibrium game theory?  the mining industry may actually be decentralizing as more corporate and maybe eventually sovereign actors decide to mine in addition to the pools going forward.  at any rate, no worries for now despite what all the POS shills scream:

[cypherdoc]

this is trouble.  the Q is for who?  you know who i think it is:

[botany]

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.

People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

That is because house buyers see it as an investment as well.

[Peter R]

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.

People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  

This stubbornness in people's belief systems makes me wonder how big a bubble bitcoin could become if the tide turned in its favour.  If bitcoin mania really took hold, all at once the average person will believe that it's inevitable that bitcoin is destined to be the next global currency, and pundits will justify $1 million + valuations.  Prices far below that will seem cheap and the coins will get bought and bought until the mining supply smacks us back to reality.  And the crazy thing is this cycle could happen again and again until the prophecy is fulfilled.

Bitcoin could result in the largest wealth transfer in the history of mankind.  It's possible, and in fact more likely than not IMO, that the biggest waves are still ahead of us.  There's already 200 ATMs deployed across the world (199 more than during the last growth spurt), Circle will soon permit people to purchase bitcoin instantly with a credit card, and the launch of COIN will open up that largest USD/BTC gateway yet.  Once this infrastructure is in place, all it will take is for a few in the herd to start to run and a great stampede could begin.    

What would happen if 21 million people decided to buy a bitcoin at the same time?

[botany]

Housing is a strange animal because it's the only consumer purchase where buyers want to see the price rise. Every other household item like cars, gas, power, household goods, food, rent etc, consumers hate to see price increases. And especially in 2nd hand goods.

People have been lied to and brainwashed by the mortgage banking industry.

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  

This stubbornness in people's belief systems makes me wonder how big a bubble bitcoin could become if the tide turned in its favour.  If bitcoin mania really took hold, all at once the average person will believe that it's inevitable that bitcoin is destined to be the next global currency, and pundits will justify $1 million + valuations.  Prices far below that will seem cheap and the coins will get bought and bought until the mining supply smacks us back to reality.  And the crazy thing is this cycle could happen again and again until the prophecy is fulfilled.

Bitcoin could result in the largest wealth transfer in the history of mankind.  It's possible, and in fact more likely than not IMO, that the biggest waves are still ahead of us.  There's already 200 ATMs deployed across the world (199 more than during the last growth spurt), Circle will soon permit people to purchase bitcoin instantly with a credit card, and the launch of COIN will open up that largest USD/BTC gateway yet.  Once this infrastructure is in place, all it will take is for a few in the herd to start to run and a great stampede could begin.    

What would happen if 21 million people decided to buy a bitcoin at the same time?

I think a majority of people who hold bitcoins already believe in that story. Of course, if a vast majority of people consider bitcoin as an investment (like they consider housing) bitcoin prices would shoot up.

[cypherdoc]

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

[adamstgBit]

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

[Peter R]

I think a majority of people who hold bitcoins already believe in that story.

I wonder about that.  I consider it one possible story among many.  And I do my best (and probably fail miserably) to objectively assess the probability that the story unfolds in the way I just told.  

But there's something strange that happens when a story gets repeated enough.  The story becomes truth and it's no longer even considered a story.  A society cannot recognize its own myths.  

It's like the myth of money itself.  In discussions about bitcoin, I often get asked "why can't we just do what bitcoin does using real money instead?"  These people haven't even asked themselves what money is.  They just grew up to a certain story; the possibility that the story isn't true isn't even on their radar.  It's the WYSIATI phenomenon (what you see is all there is).  

[cypherdoc]

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace fiat, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

[adamstgBit]

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop! 

[adamstgBit]

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

[cypherdoc]

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

Mind you, I'm not saying buy a house right now as there are some signs its rolling but the long term point I was making still holds, IF you believe fiat is doomed.

[zeetubes]

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop! 

Although a move by gold investors could easily transform the bitcoin market, only a tiny percentage of investors hold PMs in their portfolios. I would much rather see the other 99% (or whatever figure it actually is) buy into BTC or it will remain as obscure as gold.

[adamstgBit]

It's a battle to get my friends and family to understand that high housing costs are an overall negative to the economy; they see it as an investment and investments should go up in value.  And even though the market has been fairly flat the last several years here in Vancouver, it's accepted as fact that prices will continuously appreciate--a long decline in housing costs is not even in the realm of possibility in the minds of the majority here.  
...

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent? buying a house the second a bank will let you barrow is sound financial advice, no matter what the market is doing.

I agree poeple can't view housing as investment, its not, its a store of value a damn good one.

Actually, if you believe Bitcoin is destined to replace the usd, then you should be buying a house. After all, you do it with a loan.

believing your own beliefs as fact is DANGEROUS. so no.

i say this and i bought a house in 2011 and then bought 25$ of bitcoin because i was broke at the time.

lol fuck my life.

Mind you, I'm not saying buy a house right now as there are some signs its rolling but the long term point I was making still holds, IF you believe fiat is doomed.

fiat is designed to lose 90% of its value every 50-100 years.

doom is coming.

[adamstgBit]

It'll probably take a break in the gold market to get the ball rolling.

let it drop!  

Although a move by gold investors could easily transform the bitcoin market, only a tiny percentage of investors hold PMs in their portfolios. I would much rather see the other 99% (or whatever figure it actually is) buy into BTC or it will remain as obscure as gold.

BTC offers so much more then gold. and now with all these big names accepting it, it will surely not be as obscure as gold. wtf is taking so long? anything below 10K is dirt cheep!

buy Buy BUY!!!

[Peter R]

long term housing can only go up... and even if thats not true, consider your options, throwing away money on rent?

But everybody pays rent.  You either pay it to yourself (in lieu of the money you would receive from a tenant), or you pay it to a landlord.  In an efficient market, it shouldn't really make a difference whether you buy or rent.  The fact that it has made a difference (and a huge difference at that) shows how out of whack the housing market has become over the last few decades.

I also don't think it's true that long term housing can only go up. Shiller has over a century of evidence to refute this: