[XMR] Monero Speculation

[americanpegasus]

I don't care enough to re-research. 
 
I was basically googling "how much is all the silver on earth worth" and found a website that put a bunch of mining and holding numbers together and calculated it to be worth about 1 trillion. 
 
Perhaps they were wrong.

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[jehst]

I don't care enough to re-research. 
 
I was basically googling "how much is all the silver on earth worth" and found a website that put a bunch of mining and holding numbers together and calculated it to be worth about 1 trillion. 
 
Perhaps they were wrong.

Anyway, another nitpick is that I doubt I'd kick myself if I bought some thousands of XMR at, say, $00.34 and sold at $2000. There is a declining marginal utility of wealth. At a certain piont, your life stops changing significantly.

[americanpegasus]

Well, I would agree that the difference in lifestyle between a billionaire and a millionaire is probably less significant than between a millionaire and a thousandaire.  
  
However, perhaps you have never tasted wealth.  
  
Let me tell you what happens, believe it or not.  At first, it feels just as you would expect it to.  Amazing...  Miraculous...  Magical...  You can't believe this is really happening to you.  
  
This feeling lasts for months.  Then, it begins to dull.  This isn't wealth anymore.  This is just life.  You deserve these things and are used to them.  
  
For example, let me assume you are currently middle class.  Imagine suddenly moving to a trailer park and living off of microwave dinners with a beat up jalopy car...  That is how you will slowly come to view your *current* middle class existence...  Basically, you won't want to go back.  Also, you will bore of the luxuries that wealth brings.  When life turns into a permanent vacation of booze, beaches, shopping, and gorgeous women, you initially think that you won't need anything else.  
  
But over time you will begin to suspect that many of the friends you make only hang out with you because of your money and status (because it's true) and you will find that swimming in the trappings of wealth is an ultimately hollow existence.  You will begin to crave more power and influence, and begin thinking of ways to leave your mark on the world.  After all, you are so great right?  Shouldn't you do something or build something really big?  It's not about survival or comfort anymore...  It's about mattering in the grand cosmic scheme.  
  
And you know what?  A billionaire can do a fuck of a lot more to finance mega projects than a millionaire can.  This is why people aren't happy stopping at millionaire.  
  
The human mind is wired to always look upward towards the next rung of the ladder, and when you finally find your wealth, you will too.

[Gillette]

What are your price predictions? No real support until 180k satoshis. Big sell walls at 226, 250, 300K.

5 years from now I think XMR will either be under 1,000 satoshis (some major unknown flaw is found or new superior tech comes along and manages to replace XMR before it can establish itself as the clear market leader) or over .25 B^C (XMR becomes the primary coin for those who want fungibility. I would say it could go higher than .25 BTC but in 5 years I think some of the old guard may still be trying to stick with BTC via sidechains for privacy despite its drawbacks)

Keep in mind when I say .25 BTC I mean .25 BTC

I think BTC prices will be much higher in fiat terms 5 years from now so .25 BTC in 5 years is likely to be much more in fiat terms than .25 BTC today

XMR has great potential, but the risk for ruin remains

What do u think about VNL coin tech?

[TrueCryptonaire]

I would not worry so much about a coin that comes with superior technology.
We have seen that bitcoin has a tech from 2008 with improvements of developers.
Basically the only advantage bitcoin has over the other coins is the network of bagholders.
In my opinion, techwise Monero is good enough  to replace bitcoin as it doesn't have public blockchain. Also bitcoin network is getting filled with transactions and a confirmation takes awfully long time. Sometimes even more than 1 hour it takes to get even the first confirmation.
I am looking forward to the era when Monero gets own fiat exchange and this will make bitcoin useless as bitcoin is a mere token for buying Moneros. 

[smooth]

What do u think about VNL coin tech?

Do you have something substantial and relevant to say about it, or are you just spamming?

[Oscilson]

I would not worry so much about a coin that comes with superior technology.
We have seen that bitcoin has a tech from 2008 with improvements of developers.
Basically the only advantage bitcoin has over the other coins is the network of bagholders.
In my opinion, techwise Monero is good enough  to replace bitcoin as it doesn't have public blockchain. Also bitcoin network is getting filled with transactions and a confirmation takes awfully long time. Sometimes even more than 1 hour it takes to get even the first confirmation.
I am looking forward to the era when Monero gets own fiat exchange and this will make bitcoin useless as bitcoin is a mere token for buying Moneros. 

Confirmation time is not an advantage for XMR. When it becomes popular, there will be numerous transactions. The block limit will be filled easily. Because of its anonymous feature, it will use much more disk space.

The main issue of XMR is that it can be mined by CPU efficiently, which server manager and botnet have loads. They will dump at any price as there is no cost of electricity to them. That is one reason the price is low.

[Gillette]

What do u think about VNL coin tech?

Do you have something substantial and relevant to say about it, or are you just spamming?

I`m not spamming. I`m not a coder and would like to listen the opinion of a coder about VNL tech.

As an average user, I would place XMR and VNL at the same level. Both have decentralized anon sending.

[smooth]

I would not worry so much about a coin that comes with superior technology.
We have seen that bitcoin has a tech from 2008 with improvements of developers.
Basically the only advantage bitcoin has over the other coins is the network of bagholders.
In my opinion, techwise Monero is good enough  to replace bitcoin as it doesn't have public blockchain. Also bitcoin network is getting filled with transactions and a confirmation takes awfully long time. Sometimes even more than 1 hour it takes to get even the first confirmation.
I am looking forward to the era when Monero gets own fiat exchange and this will make bitcoin useless as bitcoin is a mere token for buying Moneros.  

Confirmation time is not an advantage for XMR. When it becomes popular, there will be numerous transactions. The block limit will be filled easily. Because of its anonymous feature, it will use much more disk space.

The main issue of XMR is that it can be mined by CPU efficiently, which server manager and botnet have loads. They will dump at any price as there is no cost of electricity to them. That is one reason the price is low.

There is no fixed block limit in Monero (or other cryptonote coins). It remain to be seen whether that causes other problems but a backlog of the sort Bitcoin is facing now won't be one of them.

[smooth]

What do u think about VNL coin tech?

Do you have something substantial and relevant to say about it, or are you just spamming?

I`m not spamming. I`m not a coder and would like to listen the opinion of a coder about VNL tech.

As an average user, I would place XMR and VNL at the same level. Both have decentralized anon sending.

There are better places to discuss that than a Monero Speculation thread.

[Gillette]

What do u think about VNL coin tech?

Do you have something substantial and relevant to say about it, or are you just spamming?

I`m not spamming. I`m not a coder and would like to listen the opinion of a coder about VNL tech.

As an average user, I would place XMR and VNL at the same level. Both have decentralized anon sending.

There are better places to discuss that than a Monero Speculation thread.

Maybe here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0

[Gillette]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

[rpietila]

1. "Free in Estonia" is a trade term that means you can pick up your silver in Tallinn all local taxes and duties paid. If you want it transported, it's on your expense.

2. I think it is more bullish when I stop doing those marketcap comparisons, or especially when I start making them after a long delay (which I did both March and October 2013, both right before big rallies).

3. Total silver mined by humans is 45 Boz, of which about 20 B remain, making the market cap about $300 B. I don't know if Anunnaki etc. were as interested in silver as they were of gold, which makes the total ambiguous. Also most of the 20 Boz is nowhere to be seen, my records show that even in 1980 when the price went up 10x in months, only 2 Boz surfaced.

[dEBRUYNE]

I would not worry so much about a coin that comes with superior technology.
We have seen that bitcoin has a tech from 2008 with improvements of developers.
Basically the only advantage bitcoin has over the other coins is the network of bagholders.
In my opinion, techwise Monero is good enough  to replace bitcoin as it doesn't have public blockchain. Also bitcoin network is getting filled with transactions and a confirmation takes awfully long time. Sometimes even more than 1 hour it takes to get even the first confirmation.
I am looking forward to the era when Monero gets own fiat exchange and this will make bitcoin useless as bitcoin is a mere token for buying Moneros.  

Confirmation time is not an advantage for XMR. When it becomes popular, there will be numerous transactions. The block limit will be filled easily. Because of its anonymous feature, it will use much more disk space.

The main issue of XMR is that it can be mined by CPU efficiently, which server manager and botnet have loads. They will dump at any price as there is no cost of electricity to them. That is one reason the price is low.

Somewhat agree, however they can also point there botnet to other malicious things, so there somewhat is a marginal cost for them. I agree that it's currently not helping the price, but once the price gets higher, I expect the hashrate to increase and thus the hashrate share of botnets to dilute.

[GingerAle]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

Mine it if you have access to a boatload of free electricity and hardware.

Otherwise buy it.

[Gillette]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

Mine it if you have access to a boatload of free electricity and hardware.

Otherwise buy it.

I have free electricity but no free hardware

[GingerAle]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

Mine it if you have access to a boatload of free electricity and hardware.

Otherwise buy it.

I have free electricity but no free hardware

then yeah, buy it. Otherwise you're looking at buying thousands of dollars worth of 290X's in order to get 5k XMR in any reasonable amount of time.

[aminorex]

Do you see XMR getting a slingshot effect from the current rally of 1st gen altcoins (LTC/NMC/PPC etc)?

No opinion.  I am trying to restrict my views to higher confidence, better informed, cases these days.  I do think the next  XMR ATH is one day closer than it was yesterday, though, and try to maintain my fraction until then.

I also think silver is likely to have a good fortnight or so upcoming before the next leg down.  That is fairly high confidence and quite easily accessible for retail.

I would not short China here.  Short eurnok is tempting, but I can not really recommend it for most people, particularly as it might be a bit premature. It is working for me at the moment, but can easily sting as well.  Long usdjpy is safer, as is short XAUXAG, over a weeks, maybe  a month. U.s. shares are due a relief rally at least.  If Iran comes to market soon, oil should tank again.

[Gillette]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

Mine it if you have access to a boatload of free electricity and hardware.

Otherwise buy it.

I have free electricity but no free hardware

then yeah, buy it. Otherwise you're looking at buying thousands of dollars worth of 290X's in order to get 5k XMR in any reasonable amount of time.

But what if I buy the mining equipment for several k of USD, mine and sell 5k USD value XMR and then:
1. Continue mining XMR or other coin or
2. Sell the mining hardware with 20-30% discount of the original price

[dEBRUYNE]

What is the better way to get around 5k USD value XMR:  buy it at current price (190k) or mine it?

Mine it if you have access to a boatload of free electricity and hardware.

Otherwise buy it.

I have free electricity but no free hardware

then yeah, buy it. Otherwise you're looking at buying thousands of dollars worth of 290X's in order to get 5k XMR in any reasonable amount of time.

But what if I buy the mining equipment for several k of USD, mine and sell 5k USD value XMR and then:
1. Continue mining XMR or other coin or
2. Sell the mining hardware with 20-30% discount of the original price

You need to have a pretty low $/kWh price to make a profit even with that it will take a substantial amount of time to break even. Furthermore, this is alpha stage software which brings in additional risks. So in conclusion, it's less risky and might be even more profitable to buy XMR instead of mining it, unless you have a pretty good kWh price and a good knowledge of setting up a mining "farm" yourself.

EDIT: Shit, just saw you got free electricity, in that case it might be worth a shot. But bear in mind the risks with mining and the risk of mining a less established coin (compared to for instance Bitcoin).