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1641  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 17, 2024, 08:37:14 PM
I really hope they do not fire Xavi, that dude seems like the perfect candidate for Barcelona's future, and yes it looks like he had a bad season this year, but he is still fighting for a possible second position in the league and it is not unlikely, and he is still trying his best at UCL as well and could go further.

So, it is not like he is doing terrible, plus he won it last year, that was a good result. I agree that the game at super cup final was a humiliation, 4-1 is not that nice, you want to see Barcelona be better, but he is also a given a team that has so much debt, he can't buy all the players he wants, he is building a team basically for free for a team that size. I think it is quite important to keep him long term so that he can do what he wants.

According to leaks, Barcelona will be led by Girona coach Mitchell at the end of the season. In my opinion, all this fits into the general scheme of information (or rumors) that is currently known. Firstly, Barcelona is clearly having a disastrous season. Secondly, they were destroyed by Real Madrid in the Super Cup, which reduced Xavi’s chance of winning 2 trophies in a season (according to leaks, this is exactly the task he was given). He still has three other competitions left and if, miraculously, Xavi suddenly wins the Champions League, then of course he will be forgiven for everything else. Therefore, he was given a chance until the end of the season.
1642  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 17, 2024, 05:32:57 PM
Doesn't this apply to Real Madrid or Bayern? Bayern wins the Bundesliga every year and for them this is a routine/norm that they cannot fall below and every year they want to win the Champions League. Real won the Champions League three times in a row and 4 times in 5 years. It is difficult to imagine that at some point they will say “perhaps we have enough.” Each top team strives to win all tournaments in which it participates. As for personal meetings between them, I hope that City will be knocked out earlier and there simply won’t be any  Grin
Of course it applies to both Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, i just think what City have achieved in recent years is a little bit more special because i think the EPL is more competitive than the Bundesliga and also the La Liga. Bayern and Real Madrid have such a great history that is a dream to City, but i think the English champions are going to get there someday, the only problem is if Pep decides to leave soon, they would not be able to replace him, there is no manager who is better.

Having said that, i think now that City have won their first CL and the weight of not winning it has been removed from their shoulders, they are even more dangerous, now they play without any pressure and they can dominate the competition like they are doing in England.

City were champions before Pep and will be champions after Pep (of course, unless the League can punish them for 115 FFP violations and send them two divisions down, but I have little faith in this because only Everton can be punished). There is nothing special about him.
As for the pressure, I think this is just a feature of tournaments where there is a playoff stage - there is a lot of randomness. You can very effectively “buy” a round-robin tournament by flooding everything with money (in the long run your investment will outweigh everything else), but in the playoffs everything is possible.
1643  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 17, 2024, 05:24:00 PM
Bayern Munich also struggle sometimes just as Leverkusen do. For example Bayern Munich were also able to beat Wolfsburg by only 2-1 a short time ago. Wolfsburg aren't a good season at all you know. Moreover Frankfurt demolished Bayern Munich by 5-1 last month. It was a shocking result for Bayern Munich as well.  Sad

Leverkusen are currently the only team going on without a single loss during the season. 17 games and 14 wins... This is really impressive. I really like Xabi Alonso's team this season and hope to see them maintaining this streak without a loss as long as possible.

Plus they have 6 wins in the Europa League + 3 wins in the German Cup - incredible statistics! I wonder if there are those who bet against them using the Martingale system? I think everyone knows this scheme: when a bet is made against the favorite (or an outsider, there is no difference) and if it does not work, then on the next game a bet is made again against this team and the bet amount is increased so that if the bet wins, you will be in the black for bet 1 and bet 2 in total. If someone bet against Bayer, he was already ruined.
1644  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 17, 2024, 05:13:57 PM
Two points is a very insignificant advantage, there are still many games ahead and everything can change. Perhaps we are already accustomed to the fact that City are the leaders of the Premier League, and it is difficult for us to imagine that anyone can break their dominance. It seems Arteta tried to do this, but Arsenal is missing something every time.
For the English league, even a difference of 5 points is still considered very vulnerable or small for  team not to be couped by another team, the English league competition is very competitive and even makes the competition for the championship very difficult to predict even when there are only a few games remaining, this season it looks like we Starting to see several teams starting to rise and try to enter the title race and even now there are 5 teams that are still candidates to win the English League.
Consistency is something that has been missing from Arsenal for a long time and that is why currently Arsenal is starting to return to factory settings and it is difficult to compete at the top of the standings, As an Arsenal fan, I only hope that Arteta can find a solution to Arsenal problems so far and be able to become a strong competitor  to win the EPL trophy.

I hope that Arsenal will overtake City and we will find out who will take the title in the fight between Asenal and Liverpool, but I must admit that 5 points is a lot for teams that are fighting for the title. In the Premier League, the champion usually dominates very strongly and very often the percentage of points scored is more than 80%. It turns out that on average the title holder scores 2.4 points per game. To “catch up” a gap of 5 points, you need to play at the maximum (win) 5/0.6 = 8.3 games. It's not so easy in the Premier League.
1645  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 17, 2024, 05:01:45 PM
~~~

We probably watched different games. Real were head and shoulders above Barcelona and surpassed them in everything (however, as you wrote about Barcelona’s weak defense and attack - but this is precisely what makes the gigantic difference between the winner and the loser) and it was obvious that Real was not playing at 100% - all these feints in the center of the field from Bellingham and other tricks that we should not see in a serious game. Arajuo was sent off because he lost to Vinny and not because of the referee.
Vinnie, by the way, again confirmed his status as the player who gets fouled more than any other.
I also really liked that after the first goal, Vinnie made a ceremony in Ronaldo’s name - Siuuuu! At the same time, Ronaldo was present at the game and saw this  Cheesy
Congratulations on that, KTChampions. This season Real Madrid are ahead of Barcelona in many ways, but it was completely different last season, and you just have to admit it. This season Barcelona was the loser, while last season Real Madrid was the loser for the same title.  Grin

I don’t see any problem in admitting that Real Madrid lost last season and I did it in this thread. But I see that the facts have hurt you and you want to discuss them a little  Wink Cheesy
Ok!
So:
Last season, despite losing the La Liga title, Real Madrid was more financially successful than Barcelona (Real played one game less than the maximum possible number in the Champions League, and Barcelona was shamefully eliminated in the group stage). Plus, Real has restructured the team and now they have the opportunity (financial) to buy anyone, even Mbappe or Haaland.
Barcelona went all in (leverage and all) and failed. Now it has no titles, no prospects, the possibility of bankruptcy and a weak coach (who, by the way, leaves at the end of the season).
 Roll Eyes Who wins in the end?
1646  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 17, 2024, 02:42:05 PM
Inter don't have any game to play on this week which means Juventus can take the lead from them temporarily. There is a Lecce - Juventus game at this wekeend. Juventus are obviously highly favourite side to win. Lecce are just a team quite close to relegation zone in points. This doesn't mean Juventus can have some complacency of course.

Juventus need to take every single game of theirs seriously from now on if they aim the league title. Because Inter also don't lose points easily these days. Juventus have improved their performance quite much lately. They have seemed more productive when it comes to goals. They should be victorious here.

Haha, exactly! This could be extremely psychologically unpleasant for Inter players. It turns out that it’s like “we scored 51 points out of 60 possible, scored the most goals, conceded the fewest... but we fall to second place”  Grin It is clear that everything remains in the hands of Inter and they remain leaders in terms of lost points, but such proximity of a competitor can get on your nerves. I think the Inter players are very aware of how they dominate Serie A this season and the fact that someone is keeping up with them can be intimidating (especially a club like Juventus).
1647  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ballon d'Or discussion and odds on: January 17, 2024, 02:31:18 PM
The clownery continues!  Grin

Winners from Best FIFA Football Awards 2023
The Best FIFA Men's Player - Lionel Messi

https://www.90min.com/posts/the-best-fifa-football-awards-2023-full-winners-list

Seriously? It seems that when he retires, they will create a new nomination “the best among pensioners” and will award it to him every year. What makes what happened especially poignant is the fact that, according to leaks, Haaland was supposed to win, so Messi didn’t even come to the ceremony, and when the winner was announced it was very awkward.
What a shameful, pathetic circus. There is a feeling that this clownery will continue until 2027 (in 2026 they will hold the World Cup and finally bury this PR story that everyone is already tired of).
It’s laughable. I don’t see how Messi who is playing in Inter Miami could win the award. Lionel Messi did not merit the award and was given based on sentiment.  I don’t want to shout robbery but what did Messi achieve within the timeline (19th Dec 2022 - 20th August 2023) under review that makes him merit the award ahead of Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe? FIFA should rename the awards to football popularity contest because that is what it is.

The award is given for a year (as the name suggests) and here even more questions arise - a significant part of the time, while Mbappe, Haaland, Bellingham, etc. showed themselves in the game Messi was lying on the beach as Inter Miami flew past the playoffs.
I see from social networks and forums that everyone took this indifferently (ignored) or with irritation. It seems everyone is just used to it and doesn’t really want to discuss these PR perversions.
1648  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: January 17, 2024, 02:26:14 PM
Haaland may leave Manchester this summer.

He will have a release clause around 120-150mil and if Guardiola will leave, he will also leave.

Just my 2 cents.

Is this your guess or have you heard about such a logical connection somewhere? It seems to me that, on the contrary, Guardiola’s departure will encourage Haaland to stay, even though Haaland plans to play in all the top European championships (I hope except France haha). In my opinion, Guardiola is acting like an asshole towards Haaland - if you have such a star in your team, you have to praise him, it's just business. But Guardiola, while praising Haaland, does not forget to remind that he considers Messi the best  Grin What an idiot.
1649  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 17, 2024, 02:18:38 PM
Even though Roma performance in Serie A is not as consistent as expected, Mourinho influence is still very big when Roma plays in European competitions. I also feel the same way, Roma progress in the Europa League will soon end because they are currently being evaluated after Mourinho departure. Roma immediately appointed De Rossi as the new coach after firing Mourinho, but it seems that Roma is not too sure about their decision to appoint De Rossi as Jose Mourinho replacement coach. He is only contracted until June and his coaching capacity is still poor in experience.

Rossi is a transitional coach, a temporary option. As I understand it, Mourinho was fired urgently, so Roma did not have time to find a replacement (plus it is unlikely that a serious coach will coach Roma right now in the middle of the season with unclear prospects but a high level of expectations) and they will be looking for a coach by the summer to coach Roma for next season.
By the way, I haven’t read it in the news yet, but I remember that after his dismissal from United, Mourinho was in the lead in the amount of money he earned from breaking contracts early  Grin Probably now he put the compensation in his pocket and became free for a new contract.
1650  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: Потребительские свойства биткоина on: January 17, 2024, 02:09:30 PM
Кроме этих новых точек приема, нужно чтобы люди еще начали пользоваться битком, этих точек может через 5 лет быть не тысячи а десятки тысяч, или сотни, ~

Не может. Уже приводились рассчеты по количеству транз которые биток через себя может в сутки пропустить, если хотите перепроверьте самостоятельно. Никакая точка не сможет существовать если в сутки она сможет обработать один платеж (и то в удачный день Grin ).

Из Сальвадора как раз пришли свежие данные. По результатам опроса, 12% хотя бы раз за 2023 год что-то купили за биткойны, причём большей частью оплачивали еду или базовые услуги, т.е. потихоньку начинают пользоваться биткойном именно в повседневной жизни.~

Скорее всего 99% из этих 12 пользовались не битком, а эрзацем - кошельком Чиво (если правильно помню название), с таким же успехом пользователей бирж можно записывать в пользователи битка, даже если они ни разу кроме фиата ничего с биржи не выводили/вводили.
1651  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: «Грязные» биткойны on: January 17, 2024, 01:14:30 PM
Кстати, я пока не слышал о сервисах которые что-то подобное делают вроде "до этого числа это был чистый адрес, с этого числа грязный, а вот с этого уже снова чистый".
Вижу свободную нишу  Cool Идею дарю бесплатно, но если конечно кто-то хочет купить, то ЛС  Roll Eyes
На самом деле такая информация никому не интересна, ни сервисам, ни тем более пользователям. На анализ "глубокой" истории транзакций может потребоваться много врепени, сил и средств и бизнес скорее потеряет деньги, чем что-то приобретет от блокировки таких адресов. Поэтому как и во всей этой истории с "грязными" биткоинами ввели очередную формальность, что после условной десятой транзакции смотреть и учитывать историю не будут: хоть наотмывай себе средств, нахакай бирж и нафинансируй сколько угодно терроризма, главное сделай это достаточно давно по их меркам. "Давно" имеется ввиду не во времени, а в количестве так называемых "прыжков", то есть когда средства перемещаются на другой адрес.

Ого, путешественник во времени пишет прямиком из 2017 (или еще раньше) года  Grin
Я вот не буду говорить за всех, скажу лично за себя: в п2п сделке я никогда ни за какие коврижки не приму битки от ноунеймов в интернете. Риск черезмерный. Я понимаю что даже грязные битки можно постепенно обелить или впарить другому лопуху, но лишние проблемы мне не нужны поэтому биток просто идет нахер в п2п бизнесе. Таковы реалии.
1652  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 16, 2024, 09:07:46 PM
I think this is a bad decision taken by As Roma. This will not produce results either in Serie A or in the European leagues after sacking Mourinho and replacing De Rossi. Last season, Mourinho managed to take As Roma to the Europa League final even though they lost to Sevilla, but after Mourinho's dismissal in the middle of the road, I don't think As Roma's journey in the Europa League will be long, maybe in the round of 16, As Roma's journey will have to end.

The reason is, Roma fired Mourinho because they wanted to build a long-term project. It's crazy how teams talk about projects, development and building, but that's never the case for Mourinho. 2.5 years is not enough. He loves Roma and the fans love him. The squad is not good and relies too much on Dybala. It was honestly heartbreaking to see him go.

I don't want to gloat, but let's see what Roma achieves after Mourinho. In general, neutral fans in recent years remembered this team only thanks to Mourinho - first his high-profile arrival in Rome, then the Conference League title, then the Europa League final. Does anyone believe that Roma will achieve more in the next three years? If so, he is a great optimist.
I don’t wish Roma anything bad, on the contrary, I’m more for the underdogs and I’m always happy when someone moves the big four in Serie A, but I don’t think that Roma under any new coach without serious investments will be able to achieve more than they achieved under Mourinho.
1653  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: January 16, 2024, 09:00:46 PM
Chelsea looking to recklessly spend more money on transfers? It’d be good if they actually decided to coach the £1,500,000,000 signings that they have already made.

I predict they will be in deep trouble at some stage with FFP. They are making a mockery of the whole transfer situation.

Firmino and Benzema have been true legends of the game but they are past their peak.

I wonder what percentage of return Chelsea can make from that one and a half billion. Theoretically, if they can sell what they bought for the same price, then they can not violate FFP at least now (there are already questions for Chelsea regarding FFP violations in the past) and continue to rotate players. But as far as I know, no one is ready to overpay like Chelsea did, so that one and a half billion has shrunk a lot.
1654  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 16, 2024, 08:54:48 PM
As expected, Roma's performance this season has been disappointing. It's hard to believe that Jose Mourinho, once regarded as the best in the world, faced such challenges. Roma was seen as a top club solely because of him. From my perspective Mourinho did a lot for Roma with limited resources, relying on free-agent players. While the team aims to compete at the top, they opt for loaning players instead of investing in quality ones. The cycle will persist unless they prioritize acquiring talented players.

I wonder what results Roma management expects? In the end, Roma are only 2 points behind the defending champions  Grin
Yes, this season is more bad than good, but there are still many rounds ahead and even the top 4 is only 5 points away, plus I think all of Roma’s hopes were aimed at the European Cups. I can’t call this decision rational and I heard that Mourinho was fired over the phone, this is very disrespectful, even Fabio Capello said that it was outrageous to do this to a coach who changed not only European but also world football.
In any case, this chapter is closed, now I am waiting for Mourinho in the Brazilian national team.
1655  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 16, 2024, 04:38:36 PM
All parties at Barcelona should apologize to the supporters, especially since this season they failed to win the Spanish Super Cup. Their performance was good in that match where Barcelona managed to fire 7 shots on goal, and Barcelona also had a high percentage of ball possession compared to Real Madrid. Barcelona only failed to take advantage of their many goal opportunities in that match, they were also disadvantaged because the referee sent off Araujo with a red card.

In general, Barcelona and Real Madrid both played well and created many goal opportunities, but Barcelona's weak defensive system and the strikers' poor finishing meant that Barcelona had to give up with a score of 4-1. Real Madrid deserved the win, but this was no embarrassment for Barcelona. Since then, Barcelona has had to get better focus on La Liga, the Copa Del Rey and also the Champions League. At least Barcelona still has a chance to win the title if they are able to improve their performance and consistency.

We probably watched different games. Real were head and shoulders above Barcelona and surpassed them in everything (however, as you wrote about Barcelona’s weak defense and attack - but this is precisely what makes the gigantic difference between the winner and the loser) and it was obvious that Real was not playing at 100% - all these feints in the center of the field from Bellingham and other tricks that we should not see in a serious game. Arajuo was sent off because he lost to Vinny and not because of the referee.
Vinnie, by the way, again confirmed his status as the player who gets fouled more than any other.
I also really liked that after the first goal, Vinnie made a ceremony in Ronaldo’s name - Siuuuu! At the same time, Ronaldo was present at the game and saw this  Cheesy
1656  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 16, 2024, 04:25:21 PM
Expected Goal (XG) Manchester City is still below the Liverpool Expected Goal (XG) until the 20th match.
Manchester City recorded 40.4 (xg) while Liverpool reached 44.9 (xg).

Manchester City's strength is very balanced and Liverpool are also no different from them, but the effects of Kevin de Bruyne and Haaland make their strength very felt. If the two Manchester City players are ready to perform 100%, yes, the Manchester City attack line is very strong and makes Manchester City opponents need to prepare a special strategy to stop them.

UCL is hard for Manchester City to defend the defending title because the team will be a competitor Man. City are classified as very strong from them such as PSG, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
Not just Real Madrid, but the other two teams that I have mentioned are eager to lift the UCL Trophy this season with all the strengths they have.

It’s a bit paradoxical, but despite the fact that Liverpool is better in these statistics, City scored more goals than Liverpool, but has fewer points.
As for defending the title, it is always difficult, but when I think about it, I begin to fear that City will be able to do it - in fact, they have 5 games left before the title (I do not count the games with Copenhagen) and in 4 of them they can make a mistake (since pair games). But at least there is hope that Real and Bayern will be able to stop them because they overcame the crisis of last year when City largely took the title for free.
1657  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 16, 2024, 04:09:13 PM
Jose Mourinho's options at Roma are limited because of the clubs inability to his preferred players as a result of their financial strength. But he's been able to perfectly use the team to produce great performances and results since he arrived the Italian club. In his first season at the club, he was able to win the UEFA Conference League trophy for them and last season, he took them to the final of the UEFA Europa League competition before they were narrowly beaten by eventual winners Sevilla. It is because of his presence at the club that they're still considered as one of the favorites to reach this season's final in the Europa League but after their league game yesterday against AC Milan, I'm now doubting if Mourinho's AS Roma can reach the final of the Europa League.

Roma were comfortably beaten yesterday by AC Milan in the Italian Serie A and it seems they're not strong enough to reach the final of the the Europa League this season.

I don't see much logical connection here. Last year Roma was in the final, but here is a list of those who took part in the tournament but did not reach the final: Barcelona, United, Juventus, Arsenal and many others. It’s unlikely that Roma was stronger than all of them last year, right? There are many variables in knockout games, Roma have their trump cards and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they are in the finals again (however, they could be eliminated in the next stage - this is also likely), but they are not so hopelessly weak that they cannot claim to win the tournament.
1658  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 16, 2024, 02:50:56 PM
Frosinone has experienced around 5 consecutive defeats at Serie A and this proves that Frosinone has weakened and yes, they could be getting closer to the relegation zone if they don't immediately bounce back and collect points.

Frosinone previously also suffered a big defeat in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia by Juventus with a score of 4-0 and then today they suffered another big defeat by Atalanta in Serie A with an even bigger score, namely 5-0. I think Frosinone's defense is the problem here. Because Frosinonen is actually quite good at controlling the ball. Even their passing accuracy is 1 percent better than Atalanta. Unfortunately their attack and back lines are completely unreliable. So it's natural that they lose by a lot of scores without being able to get even one goal back.

In fact, there is only one ticket left for Serie B:

Empoli 1.27

Salernitana 1.27

Hellas Verona 1.96

Cagliari 2.33

Frosinone 3.19

Bookmakers believe that Salernitana and Empoli are already there  Grin
Frosinone is only the third candidate to leave Serie A and I think this is justified - they concede a lot, but unlike Cagliari and Verona they score a significant number of goals. As for losing streaks, this is the norm for the basement, just like winning streaks are the norm for teams at the very top.
1659  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 16, 2024, 02:22:24 PM
Leverkusen has some problems at the moment. They have to do without players who are injured (as you pointed out). And they also have to do without 3 players who are playing in the Africa Cup. Leverkusen have to compensate that and it will not be easy.
Regarding to the game against Leipzig, for me Leverkusen is the favorite. The performance from Leipzig has been rather mixed and not many people expected them to lose against Frankfurt in theier last game.

Bookmakers see this game as completely random:

2.45 - 3.48 - 2.69

Apparently they take into account Bayer's losses, otherwise it is impossible to explain why the leader has such low chances. There are still 4 days before the game and if the odds begin to change sharply (at least by 0.15) in favor of one of the teams, then most likely it will make sense to bet on it. I noticed this pattern a long time ago and in fact, such a seemingly insignificant change in quotes means a lot.
1660  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 16, 2024, 02:03:02 PM
I think one of the three teams you've mentioned above (City, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich) will be champions, of course City are the defending champions (having won the CL for the first time last season), and they'll want to defend their title. The thing i love most about City is their lack of complacency, they always want success every season, notwithstanding whatsoever they achieved the previous season.

City beat Bayern (in the QF) and Real Madrid (in the SF) on their way to the trophy last season, and if they meet either team in this knockout stage, it would be pretty tough and there would be a sense of revenge. It would be interesting to see how things pan out.

Doesn't this apply to Real Madrid or Bayern? Bayern wins the Bundesliga every year and for them this is a routine/norm that they cannot fall below and every year they want to win the Champions League. Real won the Champions League three times in a row and 4 times in 5 years. It is difficult to imagine that at some point they will say “perhaps we have enough.” Each top team strives to win all tournaments in which it participates. As for personal meetings between them, I hope that City will be knocked out earlier and there simply won’t be any  Grin
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