Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[mmortal03]

365 day WMA has been broken, 365 day EMA is probably next.

[ArsenShnurkov]

365 day WMA has been broken, 365 day EMA is probably next.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Weighted_moving_average

What does that mean?
Can you give a graphics?
What are the consequences?

[mmortal03]

365 day WMA has been broken, 365 day EMA is probably next.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Weighted_moving_average

What does that mean?
Can you give a graphics?
What are the consequences?

It's just one example of a long term moving average line that it has just broken below; simply one of many possible psychological barriers a down trend can finally break through.  Who knows what the consequences are -- it could still go up or go down.

Here's a chart of the monthly and yearly EMA, since the most recent dip:



The pink line there is similar to the WMA that was just crossed.  We'll see if it also drops below this EMA line.

[netrin]

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

[GoWest]

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

No it didn't.  Here's what really happened today:

[S3052]

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. Did those trades actualy happen or not.

If not, then can you please clean up the data?

thank you

[Xenland]

God bitcoin looks so noob to new comers its not helpful when stuff like this happens to exchanges, that is if these trades didn't happen.

[netrin]

If they happened I'd be a rich man. I'm still poor, so I'm sure they didn't happen.

Fortunately, we'll have another chance to collect coins on the cheap.

[Xenland]

What would keep someone say with 20,000$ and uses half to cross trade with him self on multple accounts to control price? and the other half is to buy in super low then cashout super high?

[oakpacific]

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. Did those trades actualy happen or not.

If not, then can you please clean up the data?

thank you

See here:
https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/20433652-resolved-outage-11804-unexecuted-trades

Someone reuse their weak bitcoin forum passwords for their Mt.Gox accounts. Noobs will always find a way to screw themselves up whatever security measures you have taken.

[oakpacific]

Is this chart speaking to anyone? Did any of that chaos at 3pm actually happen?

I think it would be great if MtGox and/or bitcoinwatch could clear up this fog. Did those trades actualy happen or not.

If not, then can you please clean up the data?

thank you

See here:
https://mtgox.zendesk.com/entries/20433652-resolved-outage-11804-unexecuted-trades

Someone reuse their weak bitcoin forum passwords for their Mt.Gox accounts. Noobs will always find a way to screw themselves up whatever security measures you have taken.

On the bright side, what happened proves that a single manipulator who is not incredibly resourceful could only control the price for a very short while.

[netrin]

Oh, that makes sense. Except. No, it doesn't. How do they nullify these trades in real time? We'll bitch, of course, but if that's really what Mt. Gox has done, then Bravo!

[oakpacific]

Oh, that makes sense. Except. No, it doesn't. How do they nullify these trades in real time? We'll bitch, of course, but if that's really what Mt. Gox has done, then Bravo!

They said "most of them", then probably most of the transactions are initiated by a single account or two.

[hugolp]

Oh, that makes sense. Except. No, it doesn't. How do they nullify these trades in real time? We'll bitch, of course, but if that's really what Mt. Gox has done, then Bravo!

They said "most of them", then probably most of the transactions are initiated by a single account or two.

Honestly, the explanation MtGox gave is very lacking. How can a user create some transactions that dont go through but appear in the data?

Its sounds to me more like a bug that they do not want to recognize than anyother thing.

[Gerken]

Oh, that makes sense. Except. No, it doesn't. How do they nullify these trades in real time? We'll bitch, of course, but if that's really what Mt. Gox has done, then Bravo!

They said "most of them", then probably most of the transactions are initiated by a single account or two.

Honestly, the explanation MtGox gave is very lacking. How can a user create some transactions that dont go through but appear in the data?

Its sounds to me more like a bug that they do not want to recognize than anyother thing.

Additionally, how did he decide these 2k+ accounts were "created to crash bitcoin"?  And what happens to those accounts and the money/btc in them?   

[The_Duke]

And even IF they were created to crash bitcoin, who is MtGox to decide that bitcoin should not crash? Are they saying "bitcoin is MtGox is bitcoin"? Are they saying bitcoin is not free, open source, but controlled?

[netrin]

I suspect that the goons who cosby'd this forum, collected the accounts, tried all of them on Mt. Gox and found a few, then initiated the rally (it's easier to buy and launder bitcoins than dollars). Mt. Gox who conveniently hosts this forum, probably checked all email/user names, and had a suspicion about which accounts may have been compromised. When they started to execute huge orders, Mt. Gox may have manually annulled them. Speculation sure, but that's how I read Mt. Gox's statement. If so, we will all bitch as can be expected, but again BRAVO!

[hugolp]

I suspect that the goons who cosby'd this forum, collected the accounts, tried all of them on Mt. Gox and found a few, then initiated the rally (it's easier to buy and launder bitcoins than dollars). Mt. Gox who conveniently hosts this forum, probably checked all email/user names, and had a suspicion about which accounts may have been compromised. When they started to execute huge orders, Mt. Gox may have manually annulled them. Speculation sure, but that's how I read Mt. Gox's statement. If so, we will all bitch as can be expected, but again BRAVO!

Again, privacy issues aside, I dont buy that explanation. The trading software creates a trade and publishes it. I dont understand even in that case how a trade got published without actually happening. If you stop a trade because you think its not valid then it does not get published.

The most probable explanation with the information we have is that the new MtGox engine had a bug and produced the wrong information or messed up how the trades were matched. To avoid admiting it they are coming with an excuse including saving MtGox and Bitcoin from some evil terrorist... I mean hackers. I dont think they were even hacked, probably it was just a bug. And again, all of this is a wild guess with the little to non-existant information we have.

Because what should really happen is MtGox comes clean and explains what really happened. But the explanation they gave is very poor and does not make a lot of sense. Specially when its not the first time MtGox has tried to lie its way out of a mess. Everybody can have a mistake, but this treating everybody like they are stupid with non-sensical excuses just makes me distrust them. TradeHill came clean and very open with the Dwolla issue and everybody understood and even praised them. MtGox should do the same.

[netrin]

If Mt. Gox knew ahead of time which accounts were compromised, they would have locked them down. I bet the indication were huge sell offs and Mt. Gox reversed them within minutes. Certainly Mark should clarify, but that makes sense to me. It's not Mt. Gox's fault that users use the same username/password as elsewhere. But the rest of us should not suffer for it either. You might be correct, but I believe the theory that accounts were compromised is very plausible considering this forum was hacked immediately prior.

Mark?

...whose last post on this forum, last week and out of context, "et nous n'avons pas de difficulté ici a continuer ce que l'on fait toujours."

[hugolp]

If Mt. Gox knew ahead of time which accounts were compromised, they would have locked them down. I bet the indication were huge sell offs and Mt. Gox reversed them within minutes. Certainly Mark should clarify, but that makes sense to me. It's not Mt. Gox's fault that users use the same username/password as elsewhere. But the rest of us should not suffer for it either. You might be correct, but I believe the theory that accounts were compromised is very plausible considering this forum was hacked immediately prior.

Mark?

...whose last post on this forum, last week and out of context, "et nous n'avons pas de difficulté ici a continuer ce que l'on fait toujours."

So basically what you are saying is that MtGox detected the trades from compromised accounts and almost instantly undid all the trades until the first trade with a compromised account, then redid all the trades how it would have happened, all of this without stopping the system and nobody noticing it?

I think you will agree its hard to eat that one.