Analysis

[Tzupy]

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened...

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

[1714174770]

1714174770

[windjc]

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened...

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

Good call Tzupy!

[N12]

Bad rebuke, lebing!

(Sorry, I had to.)

[elasticband]

oh what a day

[pinky]

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

[JustAnotherSheep]

And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

Well the rise so far seems corrective so we should have one more down, although given how far up the 4th went I wouldn't be surprised if 5 will be truncated/double bottom.

edit: yup, here we go

[poncho32]

And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

Well the rise so far seems corrective so we should have one more down, although given how far up the 4th went I wouldn't be surprised if 5 will be truncated/double bottom.

edit: yup, here we go

Is that probably it afterwards? Will the price stop falling? My nerves are frazzled due to the big crash.

[lunarboy]

Is this the capitulation/bottom everyone has been shouting about? Or is there more  to come?

just lying on the beach thinking about going for a beer 

[poncho32]

Is this the capitulation/bottom everyone has been shouting about? Or is there more  to come?

just lying on the beach thinking about going for a beer 

That's what I'm wondering. Is it capitulation or are there more legs down?

[ImI]

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.

[poncho32]

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.

Thanks

Is bitcoin harder or easier than stocks to trade?

[ImI]

as a former stockmarket-trader i say, yes thats what capitulation looks like. we finally have the volume and the needed volatility.

nevertheless its obv hard to tell if its over yet.

Thanks

Is bitcoin harder or easier than stocks to trade?

depends, on which stocks you are comparing to bitcoin. apple etc are easier to handle imo, but pennystocks are more or less the same.

[Tzupy]

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

[lebing]

I made a comparison of the current bid and ask sums on Bistamp and Huobi, with the ones during the second half of September 2014.
The differences are massive: for Bitstamp, they suggest a major drop starting 3 - 5 days from now, and reaching 155$ - 180$ about 20 - 25 days from now.
For Huobi, the bid sum has increased a lot, maybe the reinstated deposits are working and there has been fresh CNY entering Chinese exchanges.
This complicates the situation, because the direction of the market depends on who leads. To crash Huobi a lot of coins must be dumped.

What does bid/ask sum have to do with predicting major movements in price?

Jack shit.

GTFO of here with that useless FUD you worthless troll.

Let's see what happened...

With a lot of help from Chinese panic sellers, my prediction became true regarding prices:
Bitstamp 152$, BTC-E 176$, Bitfinex 166$, and mainland Chinese exchanges ~900CNY, let's say 150$.
I was wrong about the timing though, the first drop started 2 days earlier than expected and ended with this high volume capitulation 7 days earlier.
So my EW-derived method is not accurate with respect to timing... shrug.
The extra fiat on Huobi only made a small difference, it wasn't possible to stop this deluge.
And while this should be THE bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if support at these levels gets tested in a month or two.

fair enough. My bad. I definitely was emotional and I apologize for that. You were obviously right. That being said, I have to say that without a chart to back it up and what seemed to me like baseless speculation to try and goad people into panicking, I just lost it. There are tons of people on this forum that do nothing else besides trying to manipulate other people into feeding their position one way or another and I have very little patience for these people.

[Tzupy]

Charts showing similarities and differences with October 2011, so far we have dodged the retrace, if this stays so it's bullish.

[thefiniteidea]

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

[pinky]

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

And what would this mean for longterm potential if we get to double digits again? Isn't this supposed to happen in C wave (death and despair)?
You know it's bad, when the Gavin is selling his bitcoins and investing in stock market, Bitstamp CEO is buying cows and farm. 

[Tzupy]

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

Unfortunately, the retrace is happening. IMO we'll linger in this price range for several days, possibly even lower.

[elasticband]

By comparing the current events with those of 17th - 18th October 2011, it it possible that the current bounce is a DCB.
In this case, it is possible to retrace to the same ballpark as the minimum. This needs to be watched closely, at some point
it is possible to see panic again and a large dump, if further upward movement is not confirmed.

Unfortunately, the retrace is happening. IMO we'll linger in this price range for several days, possibly even lower.

it's either up on Friday or we stay around here or lower for 10 days

[Igluenza]

Any update on where are we now? Is this the bottom?

Let's put it this way, if $150 isn't the bottom, then god help anyone still holding coins... and hello double digit BTC.

$150 is a really really strong support level, breaching this would mean capitulation. I've even bought some coin at $160-$170, so if I see that potentially happen, I will be selling these new coins along with everyone else.

And what would this mean for longterm potential if we get to double digits again? Isn't this supposed to happen in C wave (death and despair)?
You know it's bad, when the Gavin is selling his bitcoins and investing in stock market, Bitstamp CEO is buying cows and farm. 

A little food for thought from the infamous Charlie Shrem concerning blood & despair: https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/555412241156419585/photo/1