Analysis

[masterluc]

Situation so far (bear pennant). But... wedges in bitcoin love to break opposite ))

[RyNinDaCleM]

Situation so far (bear pennant). But... wedges in bitcoin love to break opposite ))

Bitstamp SC chart isn't updating for you either, eh?
I don't know what the deal is, when other services still have connection. It must be on the SC end in which case, what are we paying for?

[masterluc]

Yes, it frozen

[JustAnotherSheep]

Same problem. Sent a support ticket last night, to which they replied;

We are looking into this problem. There is a problem establishing the secure connection to the Bitstamp server from our server.

:/ hopefully they'll fix it soon

[lebing]

Looks like we passed through the SMA20 for the first time since November. Upper bound on bollinger here is 300, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit that or exceed before correcting.

[masterluc]

At hard resistance

[DieJohnny]

At hard resistance

I don't think it even pauses

[masterluc]

If this wedge will blow up it will be epic

[Altcoin Agent]

If this wedge will blow up it will be epic

Because if it DOES blow, it will mark the end of the downtrend that's been in action since the all time high of $1200, right ?

What's different now though ? Everything that looked promising since the ATH have been bull traps.

[masterluc]

Market is full on surprises. I received a lot of opposite signals last week. One tells about bottoming, other about further bearishness. My mind is blowing.

[Altcoin Agent]

Market is full on surprises.

Now that we're talking, first of all Thanks for all your insights.

Secondly, at what price level in the next week or so would you say with certainty "We're in an uptrend again!" ?

[Miz4r]

Because if it DOES blow, it will mark the end of the downtrend that's been in action since the all time high of $1200, right ?

What's different now though ? Everything that looked promising since the ATH have been bull traps.

Every bear market comes to an end eventually, the same pattern can't hold forever. What's different now is that the giant wedge is closing so we have to either break up or down out of it soon. Also if I understood EW theory correctly the latest move down to $160 marks the final impulse wave 5 of the current bearish cycle. Some EW theorists (not all though) don't think wave 5 has completely finished yet and we will see one more downward move to retest the low or go a bit lower and only then see a true reversal, but personally I would be very surprised if we see that happening after today.

[lebing]

Secondly, at what price level in the next week or so would you say with certainty "We're in an uptrend again!" ?

Pretty sure you will know it if/when it happens. Like Luc says, it will be epic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 450-500 in short order.

[hdbuck]

i dont see how we are getting out of the bear market:



seems like a casual pump to get back on the bear pennant, which could last another 6 months

ps: ah this is log scale. not sure what kind of scale should be relevant, but lucif used regular one, which indeed suggest a shorter pennant.  

[bassclef]

i dont see how we are getting out of the bear market:

The record volume on that 3d down bar is how enough coins change hands and supply and demand get switched.

[masterluc]

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

[realdos]

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

You mean we are going to retest the $152.4 (Bitstamp low) or we are going to somewhere near $100?

[hdbuck]

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

You mean we are going to retest the $152.4 (Bitstamp low) or we are going to somewhere near $100?

means that if we retest daily opening lows, 100$ wont be far off.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shootingstar.asp

[blade87]

What do you think we need to close at to avoid bear star? That was quite the run overnight while I slept.

[masterluc]

What do you think we need to close at to avoid bear star? That was quite the run overnight while I slept.

I said earlier and say again - close above long term resistance line