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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919199 times)
masterluc
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January 26, 2015, 08:48:15 AM
 #2521

Market is full on surprises. I received a lot of opposite signals last week. One tells about bottoming, other about further bearishness. My mind is blowing.

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Altcoin Agent
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January 26, 2015, 08:49:55 AM
 #2522

Market is full on surprises.

Now that we're talking, first of all Thanks for all your insights. Smiley

Secondly, at what price level in the next week or so would you say with certainty "We're in an uptrend again!" ?
Miz4r
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January 26, 2015, 09:01:09 AM
 #2523

Because if it DOES blow, it will mark the end of the downtrend that's been in action since the all time high of $1200, right ?

What's different now though ? Everything that looked promising since the ATH have been bull traps.

Every bear market comes to an end eventually, the same pattern can't hold forever. What's different now is that the giant wedge is closing so we have to either break up or down out of it soon. Also if I understood EW theory correctly the latest move down to $160 marks the final impulse wave 5 of the current bearish cycle. Some EW theorists (not all though) don't think wave 5 has completely finished yet and we will see one more downward move to retest the low or go a bit lower and only then see a true reversal, but personally I would be very surprised if we see that happening after today.

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lebing
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January 26, 2015, 02:43:23 PM
 #2524


Secondly, at what price level in the next week or so would you say with certainty "We're in an uptrend again!" ?

Pretty sure you will know it if/when it happens. Like Luc says, it will be epic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 450-500 in short order.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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January 26, 2015, 02:54:58 PM
Last edit: January 26, 2015, 03:14:03 PM by hdbuck
 #2525

i dont see how we are getting out of the bear market:



seems like a casual pump to get back on the bear pennant, which could last another 6 months Huh

ps: ah this is log scale. not sure what kind of scale should be relevant, but lucif used regular one, which indeed suggest a shorter pennant.   Undecided
bassclef
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January 26, 2015, 03:22:37 PM
 #2526

i dont see how we are getting out of the bear market:

The record volume on that 3d down bar is how Smiley enough coins change hands and supply and demand get switched.
masterluc
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January 26, 2015, 09:55:33 PM
 #2527

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

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January 26, 2015, 10:10:13 PM
 #2528

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100
You mean we are going to retest the $152.4 (Bitstamp low) or we are going to somewhere near $100?
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January 26, 2015, 10:14:45 PM
 #2529

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100
You mean we are going to retest the $152.4 (Bitstamp low) or we are going to somewhere near $100?

means that if we retest daily opening lows, 100$ wont be far off.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shootingstar.asp
blade87
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January 26, 2015, 10:45:58 PM
 #2530

What do you think we need to close at to avoid bear star? That was quite the run overnight while I slept.
masterluc
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January 26, 2015, 11:00:29 PM
 #2531

What do you think we need to close at to avoid bear star? That was quite the run overnight while I slept.

I said earlier and say again - close above long term resistance line



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January 26, 2015, 11:24:24 PM
 #2532

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

ewwwww, it looks like this is gonna happen
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January 27, 2015, 12:17:55 AM
 #2533

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

Pronounced enough?
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January 27, 2015, 12:19:39 AM
 #2534

Please note! If Current daily candle will be shooting star - there is a high chance price will revisit $100

Pronounced enough?

it did not happen
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January 27, 2015, 02:09:58 PM
 #2535



Am I on to something? Does this latest upswing resemble earlier and we are heading even lower in the next months?
masterluc
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January 27, 2015, 02:26:14 PM
 #2536

yes. but bottom is comming

NotHatinJustTrollin
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January 27, 2015, 02:32:20 PM
 #2537



Am I on to something? Does this latest upswing resemble earlier and we are heading even lower in the next months?
Yep.

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January 27, 2015, 02:44:45 PM
 #2538



Am I on to something? Does this latest upswing resemble earlier and we are heading even lower in the next months?

On the 17th November I posted this to show how a bullish scenario should have looked back then.
With different dates and price points, the same applies now (yes, I'm to lazy to make a new one Tongue).


Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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January 27, 2015, 02:50:05 PM
 #2539

yes. but bottom is comming

HI master :-)

why do you think 100 and not double bottom 150?
masterluc
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January 27, 2015, 03:17:31 PM
 #2540

I didn't say 100 is the bottom. Probably but not mandatory.

I see signs of coming bottom - high volatility, nervous investors, growing panic.

It may be 100 or 75, or it was 150. I don't know. I know longterm (4+ years) long position from current levels down to zero is safe enough.

That's why I said LONG.

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